Team Spotlight: Washington Nationals

Heltonfan · November 26th, 2007, 09:27 PM

There’s really nothing to like about the Nationals. They aren’t very good. They aren’t very young. And they don’t have a particularly impressive farm system. It could be worse – they don’t have any albatross contracts to deal with – but they’re not in good shape.

Summary Statistics
Rotation: -31
Bullpen: -17
Lineup: -21
Bench: +11
Defense: -27
W-L record: 72-90

Rotation

Hill 4.04
Patterson 4.44
Gonzalez 4.53
Bergmann 4.96
Traber 5.14

Two winters ago, I thought John Patterson was on the verge of establishing himself as a legit top-of-the-rotation pitcher. He had managed to stay healthy for a full season, striking out 185 batters in 198 innings. But then, everything fell apart. He actually pitched extremely well in 2006 when healthy, but he was only healthy for 40 innings. And this past year, he had a 15/22 K/BB ratio in 31 IP; his performance is now as big a question mark as his health.

Enrique Gonzalez was acquired on waivers from the Diamondbacks, in one of Jim Bowden’s better moves. Picking up a usable starting pitcher for free is always a great thing, and the Nationals, as you can see from the numbers above, need all the help they can get.

Bullpen

Cordero 4.03
Rauch 3.79
Rivera 4.02
Ayala 4.36
Booker 4.40
Schroder 4.67
Wagner 4.98

Chad Cordero is a very interesting statistical case. Here’s his performance over the last three years; the first number is FIP, the second is ERC, and the third is adjusted RA (adjusted to the same scale as FIP and ERC, so 4.00 is average):
2005: 3.87, 2.90, 2.76
2006: 4.28, 3.49, 2.73
2007: 4.05, 4.13, 3.39
If you look at how many runs he’s allowed, Cordero looks like one of the better relievers in the game. If you look at his ERCs, he looks like he’s above average. And if you just look at his K, BB, and HR numbers, he’s quite mediocre indeed.
Obviously, I think the FIP numbers are closest to the truth. I’d be willing to say that Cordero has some ability to control BABIP (however limited), but the low ERAs are absolutely meaningless. The that pitchers can control the timing of their performance is the sort of nonsense that leads to an obviously declining Barry Zito being given $126 million.

Lineup

C: Schneider 0.77 (.226, 4)
1B: Young 0.64 (.268, -8)
2B: Belliard 0.90 (.250, -4)
SS: Lopez 0.78 (.250, -10)
3B: Zimmerman 3.46 (.278, 4)
LF: Pena 0.56 (.268, -13)
CF: Church 1.67 (.267, -9)
RF: Kearns 2.05 (.265, 3)

I like Dmitri Young. Always have (I realize this is an odd thing to say about a guy who has had the kind of problems that he’s had, but bear with me). Back in 1993, I spent a week in Arkansas visiting my cousin, who was playing for the AA Arkansas Travelers (in the Cardinals organization). I found Young to be one of the nicest guys on the team, a real pleasure to be around. Plus, he was unusually generous with autographed baseball cards, which was quite significant to me as a star-crossed nine-year-old. So I’ve always rooted for him, and I’m very pleased to see him having re-established himself as an everyday player. But the fact of the matter is that he’s a statue at first base, and isn’t likely to come close to his 2007 hitting line in the future. He’s not the kind of player that you give a multi-year deal to, although at $5 million a year through 2009, it’s hardly a crippling contract.

And it’s not just Young; this defense is terrible. Wily Mo Pena is a Manny-esque tragicomedy in the outfield, Felipe Lopez is a butcher at short, and the only outstanding defender they have is Zimmerman at 3B (he was +13 defensively this year; he’s a good bet to beat his projection for the same reasons that we all think Tulo is better than his forecast).

Bench

Flores .220
Johnson .307
Jimenez .252
Logan .223
Langerhans .246

I’ve got Nick Johnson listed on the bench here, but obviously, no one has any idea how much he’ll play. If healthy, he’s a star, a 4-WAR guy over a full season.

D’Angelo Jimenez should probably be starting over Belliard at second base.

If I Were in Charge, I Would: Obviously, contending in 2008 is a long shot. But that doesn’t mean a rebuilding project is in order, because they don’t have enough tradeable assets to make it worthwhile. So the plan here is to trade Cordero to some sucker team drawn in by his saves and ERA, and beyond that, try to bring in what talent they can through free agency. The Nationals are in a bit of an unfortunate position in that there are no worthwhile 1B, 2B, or SS available on the free agent market (save Iguchi, who will have plenty of more appealing suitors). But Fukudome is worth making a run at. Ditto Bradley. Ditto Lohse/Silva/Kuroda (due to the appalling lack of starting pitching depth in the organization). And, if they trade Cordero, Washington would be a nice place for Eric Gagne to land.

Timmer · November 29th, 2007, 08:20 AM

Actually, theyare young in some key spots,getting better, and the farm system is pretty solid at this point. I have no idea what this writer is thinking.

The bulpen is quite strong. They need to move at least one of the relievers for a starting pitcher and/or grab a couple from the free-agent market. Tehy also need a CF.

Wily Mo Pena, given fulltime ABs, can be a significant power threat. In slightly over 600 AB in 2004-2005, he hit 45 HR and had 117 RBI. He's not the best OF in the world, although he says he's a better RF than LF, but his offensive production, if the Nats can get anywehre near that, more than makes up for his defensive liabilities.

To say that "D’Angelo Jimenez should probably be starting over Belliard at second base" is just plain silly. And the writer totally forgot about Guzman.

How do you work Dmitri and Nick into the lineup, assumign Nick's healthy? How do you work Lopez, Belliard, and Guzie into two spots? The Nats are finally starting to have some depth.

The pitchjing rotation, however, is putrid. One can only hope that Colin Balester can step up and be a big-league pitcher. This is where Bowden most needs to make a deal.

What's Clint Everts's status?

November 26th, 2007, 09:27 PM	#1 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 898	Team Spotlight: Washington Nationals There’s really nothing to like about the Nationals. They aren’t very good. They aren’t very young. And they don’t have a particularly impressive farm system. It could be worse – they don’t have any albatross contracts to deal with – but they’re not in good shape. Summary Statistics Rotation: -31 Bullpen: -17 Lineup: -21 Bench: +11 Defense: -27 W-L record: 72-90 Rotation Hill 4.04 Patterson 4.44 Gonzalez 4.53 Bergmann 4.96 Traber 5.14 Two winters ago, I thought John Patterson was on the verge of establishing himself as a legit top-of-the-rotation pitcher. He had managed to stay healthy for a full season, striking out 185 batters in 198 innings. But then, everything fell apart. He actually pitched extremely well in 2006 when healthy, but he was only healthy for 40 innings. And this past year, he had a 15/22 K/BB ratio in 31 IP; his performance is now as big a question mark as his health. Enrique Gonzalez was acquired on waivers from the Diamondbacks, in one of Jim Bowden’s better moves. Picking up a usable starting pitcher for free is always a great thing, and the Nationals, as you can see from the numbers above, need all the help they can get. Bullpen Cordero 4.03 Rauch 3.79 Rivera 4.02 Ayala 4.36 Booker 4.40 Schroder 4.67 Wagner 4.98 Chad Cordero is a very interesting statistical case. Here’s his performance over the last three years; the first number is FIP, the second is ERC, and the third is adjusted RA (adjusted to the same scale as FIP and ERC, so 4.00 is average): 2005: 3.87, 2.90, 2.76 2006: 4.28, 3.49, 2.73 2007: 4.05, 4.13, 3.39 If you look at how many runs he’s allowed, Cordero looks like one of the better relievers in the game. If you look at his ERCs, he looks like he’s above average. And if you just look at his K, BB, and HR numbers, he’s quite mediocre indeed. Obviously, I think the FIP numbers are closest to the truth. I’d be willing to say that Cordero has some ability to control BABIP (however limited), but the low ERAs are absolutely meaningless. The that pitchers can control the timing of their performance is the sort of nonsense that leads to an obviously declining Barry Zito being given $126 million. Lineup C: Schneider 0.77 (.226, 4) 1B: Young 0.64 (.268, -8) 2B: Belliard 0.90 (.250, -4) SS: Lopez 0.78 (.250, -10) 3B: Zimmerman 3.46 (.278, 4) LF: Pena 0.56 (.268, -13) CF: Church 1.67 (.267, -9) RF: Kearns 2.05 (.265, 3) I like Dmitri Young. Always have (I realize this is an odd thing to say about a guy who has had the kind of problems that he’s had, but bear with me). Back in 1993, I spent a week in Arkansas visiting my cousin, who was playing for the AA Arkansas Travelers (in the Cardinals organization). I found Young to be one of the nicest guys on the team, a real pleasure to be around. Plus, he was unusually generous with autographed baseball cards, which was quite significant to me as a star-crossed nine-year-old. So I’ve always rooted for him, and I’m very pleased to see him having re-established himself as an everyday player. But the fact of the matter is that he’s a statue at first base, and isn’t likely to come close to his 2007 hitting line in the future. He’s not the kind of player that you give a multi-year deal to, although at $5 million a year through 2009, it’s hardly a crippling contract. And it’s not just Young; this defense is terrible. Wily Mo Pena is a Manny-esque tragicomedy in the outfield, Felipe Lopez is a butcher at short, and the only outstanding defender they have is Zimmerman at 3B (he was +13 defensively this year; he’s a good bet to beat his projection for the same reasons that we all think Tulo is better than his forecast). Bench Flores .220 Johnson .307 Jimenez .252 Logan .223 Langerhans .246 I’ve got Nick Johnson listed on the bench here, but obviously, no one has any idea how much he’ll play. If healthy, he’s a star, a 4-WAR guy over a full season. D’Angelo Jimenez should probably be starting over Belliard at second base. If I Were in Charge, I Would: Obviously, contending in 2008 is a long shot. But that doesn’t mean a rebuilding project is in order, because they don’t have enough tradeable assets to make it worthwhile. So the plan here is to trade Cordero to some sucker team drawn in by his saves and ERA, and beyond that, try to bring in what talent they can through free agency. The Nationals are in a bit of an unfortunate position in that there are no worthwhile 1B, 2B, or SS available on the free agent market (save Iguchi, who will have plenty of more appealing suitors). But Fukudome is worth making a run at. Ditto Bradley. Ditto Lohse/Silva/Kuroda (due to the appalling lack of starting pitching depth in the organization). And, if they trade Cordero, Washington would be a nice place for Eric Gagne to land.

November 29th, 2007, 08:20 AM	#2 (permalink)
Timmer Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,958	Actually, theyare young in some key spots,getting better, and the farm system is pretty solid at this point. I have no idea what this writer is thinking. The bulpen is quite strong. They need to move at least one of the relievers for a starting pitcher and/or grab a couple from the free-agent market. Tehy also need a CF. Wily Mo Pena, given fulltime ABs, can be a significant power threat. In slightly over 600 AB in 2004-2005, he hit 45 HR and had 117 RBI. He's not the best OF in the world, although he says he's a better RF than LF, but his offensive production, if the Nats can get anywehre near that, more than makes up for his defensive liabilities. To say that "D’Angelo Jimenez should probably be starting over Belliard at second base" is just plain silly. And the writer totally forgot about Guzman. How do you work Dmitri and Nick into the lineup, assumign Nick's healthy? How do you work Lopez, Belliard, and Guzie into two spots? The Nats are finally starting to have some depth. The pitchjing rotation, however, is putrid. One can only hope that Colin Balester can step up and be a big-league pitcher. This is where Bowden most needs to make a deal. What's Clint Everts's status?