Barajas road stats 2004 - 2006 (not bad!)

[Ultimate]

I'm not saying that I think OBP is not more important than SLG, but I haven't seen it proven so I am not going to take it as an assumed fact. I definetely don't think that its 3 times more important than SLG as Moneyball suggests.

My belief is that with the spot in the order Barajas is likely to hit, most likely 7th or 8th, it seems that it might be better to have a high SLG guy than a high OBP guy, my point is that if Barajas were a guy who got on base a lot but didn't have much power he would often be left stranded on base by the weaker hitters who are likely to follow him in the batting order. While as a power hitter he may hit a lot of solo shots, but a solo shot is still a run which can often be the difference in a ball game. I just value SLG a little more at the bottom of the order than I would at the top of the order.

[Bjindaho]

Just for the record, Barajas's splits are .254 and .278 OBP for July/August the last three years. Could be bad months, but could also be the Texas heat. Pudge had trouble in July and August too. Food for thought

[gojays2007]

I read money ball, and chasing steinbrenner to boot.

I can buy into Ultimate's line of thinking here.

[Killtacular]

I never said "his OBA is not bad". I said his road stats in general arent bad. His road OBA is below average, his road power numbers are above average for a catcher. Together, that makes it "not bad".

I don't care if you hit 45 home runs, if your OBP is .280 ... you are a bad hitter.

I did think about it. Considering that out of everyone else in the lineup, no starter had an OPS under .349 other than our shorstop combination of Adams/McDonald.

Which one of our starters, other than our middle infield hole, and Barajas, is likely to have an OPS significantly below .350?

You're absolutely correct! I don't think any of the Jays will have an OPS below .350 (not even Barajas). We agreed on something!

So you think Johnson's OBA is likely to dip more than 40 points next year? Rios and Wells will have significantly lower OBA? You think Thomas and Glaus will have OBA below .350?

Absolutely.

2004 .320
2005 .332
2006 .390

You seriously think he will be closer to .390 than .332? I highly doubt that. 2006 was a SERIOUS outlier for Reed, there is no way he keeps it up in 2007. He became his former self the last two months of the season.

August .267/.322/.438/.760
September .276/.337/.368/.706

If he is a full timer next year, he WILL post an OBP of about .330.

Rios and Wells will have significantly lower OBA?

They very well may decline. We don't know what we have in Rios yet, his half season of success was nice but can he do it again in 2007? Wells could become the Wells of 2004 and 2005 again. He has, thus far in his career failed to have two consecutive great seasons. Who is to say that 2007 will be any different?

You think Thomas and Glaus will have OBA below .350?

If you actually read my post, you would see that my concern was not with their OBP. My concern is that they are HUGE injury risks, thus negating their OBP. Their on base skills do NOT help us on the disabled list.

In addition to all this, we've lost Shea's first half bat, Catalanotto, Hinske and Molina's at bats against lefties.

The offense will have a hard time keeping pace with the 2006 team unless they are very lucky. Therefore, they cannot afford another black hole to complement the one already present at second base.

Can you prove the above statement?

There is no definitive answer to this question, but one example is the correlation between OPS/OBP and runs scored.

A general rule is that team OPS rank and Runs Scored rank have a pretty good correlation. That is, if a team has a 5th best Team OPS, expect to have a Runs Scored rank around 5th. Now, the rankings won't be exact, and in some cases there are some substantial variations.

So to try and describe the reasons for these variations, you can look at the breakdown of the components that make up OPS. Generally, what you'll find is that Team OBP explains this variance much more consistently than Team HR or Team SLG. That is, let's assume a team is 8th in Team OPS, but they are 3rd in Runs Scored - a substantial difference. So when we look to see how they rank, component wise, more often than not, what we'll see is a higher Team OBP - closer to the Runs Scored rank - rather than a higher Team SLG.

So OBP is more important as a determinant of run scoring.

Regardless of whether or not the team is 13th or 1st in OBP, and 1st or 13th in HR or SLG ... if one of those stats correlates more correctly to scoring Runs, why would you want to focus on investing in the lesser one? If I'm the GM of a team that is 1st in OBP and last in SLG and I want to score more runs ... I'm looking first and foremost at MORE OBP...

In conclusion, regardless of the catcher's spot in the lineup ... OBP is still more important. Therefore, having Barajas in that spot, hurts the team big time.

[TrueBlueJay]

You're absolutely correct! I don't think any of the Jays will have an OPS below .350 (not even Barajas). We agreed on something!

Come on, you know I meant OBA.

Absolutely.

2004 .320
2005 .332
2006 .390

Whatever happened to a young player improving?

Wells could become the Wells of 2004 and 2005 again. He has, thus far in his career failed to have two consecutive great seasons. Who is to say that 2007 will be any different?

2 words: Contract Year

[TheShaker99]

Originally Posted by fmradioguy

He won't get 500 ab's because he'd have to face a lot of lefties to get there and he's even worse against lefties. You can't add up 3 years of ab's against select pitching and pretend that its a normal season.

Plus a .298 obp is still a .298 obp. The Jays don't need more sluggers. They need people to get on base to be driven in by those sluggers. Otherwise, you're looking at a lot of solo shots.

Since we're looking at select stats, how about this one for the last 3 years...

83 ab's, 6hr, .205 avg, .239 obp, .697 ops

Those are his numbers in domes.

Huh?? Holy schnikies.......You're comparing 3 years of at bats to 83 ab's and actually trying to argue this point?? Hmmmm......

[TheShaker99]

Originally Posted by fmradioguy

He won't get 500 ab's because he'd have to face a lot of lefties to get there and he's even worse against lefties. You can't add up 3 years of ab's against select pitching and pretend that its a normal season.

Plus a .298 obp is still a .298 obp. The Jays don't need more sluggers. They need people to get on base to be driven in by those sluggers. Otherwise, you're looking at a lot of solo shots.

Since we're looking at select stats, how about this one for the last 3 years...

83 ab's, 6hr, .205 avg, .239 obp, .697 ops

Those are his numbers in domes.

Originally Posted by TrueBlueJay

Before I checked I assumed his power numbers would have taken a big hit outside of Texas, but nope:

Last 3 years on the road:

542 AB, .247/.298/.446, 26 HR, 86 RBI, 97 K's, 33 BB, .744 OPS.

So if he could continue that career trend, and if he gets 450-500 AB for us, we could expect a .250 avg, with 20 HR and 70 RBI. Not bad at all.

The consensus is that he is a below average hitter as a catcher, but I think this proves otherwise. He's at least adequate.

His average is below average, but his power is above average, and his OPS (.744) seems decent for a catcher, probably about average for a starting catcher.

So looks like we're getting a catcher with average hitting and average defense. Not bad for the price we're paying.

Oh, and his numbers at Rogers centre? Very small sample size, but he is a .267 hitter with a .600 SLG and .916 OPS in 16 at bats.

Those are great #'s but it's all for nothing!! I think the Jays should try to land Doumit from Pittsburgh via trade, this kid is going to be good, and his defensive abilities are remarkeable at that age!! Heck he could platoon with Zaun cause I just don't think he can handle catching the majority of the year. What do ya think?

[TrueBlueJay]

I have to admit I don't know too much of Doumit.

I remember hearing about him as being highly touted when he first came up a couple years ago with Pitts, but he had some crappy stats last year.

Is he still seen as a potential stud? What were his minor league stats like?

[TheShaker99]

Originally Posted by TrueBlueJay

I have to admit I don't know too much of Doumit.

I remember hearing about him as being highly touted when he first came up a couple years ago with Pitts, but he had some crappy stats last year.

Is he still seen as a potential stud? What were his minor league stats like?

Dude he's a stud and some compared to what we have at the Backstop!!!
If we acquired Doumit I'd guarantee that he'd take over #1 from Zaun, seriously. He was injured last year, he played for the most part hurt, but they have 2 other kids coming through that's expected better than him, but just cause Pitts backlogged back there, does'nt mean we should'nt scoop Doumit while the Pirates ears are open for prospects and a vet for him? It would'nt take much. His feet work is incredible for such a young kid plus a strong arm and a good bat, he's for real. At least he'd be throwing guys out, one thing Zaun can't do, lol. oops....sry and the kid calls a great game without looking over his shoulder to the bench.