Barajas road stats 2004 - 2006 (not bad!)

[fmradioguy]

What exactly is a pitching back ups????

Corrected to say "match ups."

or did those numbers not have the same effect?

Bingo. Obviously, if I'm arguing his stats over the last 3 years were dramatically helped by his performance in 2005, I'm going to demonstrate that by comparing to a subpar year in the same 3 year stretch.

perhaps platoooned

No, not "perhaps." He was.

but thats to be expected from a catcher.

Glad you agree.

HE is most likely to be in the same situation here in TOronto, so with his road stats being decent as the primary catcher, there is no reason to expect anything dramatically less.

Given past "away" seasonal performances and that he was playing in one of the best hitters parks in MLB the last 3 years, there's no reason to expect numbers similar to 2005 or even 2006.

Let's make sure we've having the same discussion here, because I'm not sure we are.

The original post attempted to argue that one could look at a platooned player's accumulative stats over his last 3 years and extrapolate them into what "we could expect" over "450-500 AB" in the same season. I've simply argued that that can't logically be done given the way platooned position players are used.

[TrueBlueJay]

The original post attempted to argue that one could look at a platooned player's accumulative stats over his last 3 years and extrapolate them into what "we could expect" over "450-500 AB" in the same season. I've simply argued that that can't logically be done given the way platooned position players are used.

No, the original post attempted to argue that in Barajas' last 3 seasons, which happened to be the only 3 seasons in his career where he was the STARTING CATCHER, he hit better on the road, outside of Texas' ballpark. That was in a sample size of 548 at bats.

He has averaged 108 games per season over the past 3 years, after starting his career as a backup. I don't understand how you can call that a platoon player. He was for the most part, the starter for Texas the past 3 years until Laird stepped up this season.

If this season he hits mainly against righties, and Phillips mainly against lefties, he'll probably get 120 starts, which is right in line with the last 3 years. Phillips would likely get the 40 or so starts against lefties.

I don't see how my comparison of his road stats is not valid when trying to think of what he could do for us next year. Since Texas plays in a hitters park I was trying to get an idea of what he could do for us.

Why are you so anti-Barajas?

[mbow30]

2006 was a huge outlier. His stats against lefties in 05 and 04 weren't outstanding but they still adequate to solid.

[Killtacular]

Originally Posted by TrueBlueJay

who said its not bad? Its not good, but pretty much everyone else on the team should have OBA of nearly .350 or over so we can offset that. Besides, his power numbers make up for it.

It says so in the title of the thread (not bad)... The rest of the lineup is NOT a lock for a .350 OBP. Think about it for a second.

We lose
Hillenbrand's first half bat (.850+OPS)
Catalanotto's 400+ at bats of .800+OPS
Zaun's 290 at bats of .825 OPS
Molina's .900+ OPS vs. LHP

Weak spots
Russ Adams

Hitters very likely to decline
Reed Johnson

Hitters who could very well decline
Vernon Wells
Alex Rios

Injury Risks
Frank Thomas
Troy Glaus

There are tons of question marks surrounding the entire lineup. Barajas' bat (or lack thereof) is not 'offset' by anything. There is no guarantee this new offense will even out-perform last year's.

His power numbers FAR from make up for his lack of OBP. OBP is undervalued in the OPS equation, it is the more important of the two. His slight advantage in power over Zaun is a very poor consellation prize.

Terrible, terrible signing. No matter what way you look at it.

[TrueBlueJay]

It says so in the title of the thread (not bad)...

I never said "his OBA is not bad". I said his road stats in general arent bad. His road OBA is below average, his road power numbers are above average for a catcher. Together, that makes it "not bad".

The rest of the lineup is NOT a lock for a .350 OBP. Think about it for a second.

I did think about it. Considering that out of everyone else in the lineup, no starter had an OPS under .349 other than our shorstop combination of Adams/McDonald.

Which one of our starters, other than our middle infield hole, and Barajas, is likely to have an OPS significantly below .350?

Hitters very likely to decline
Reed Johnson

Hitters who could very well decline
Vernon Wells
Alex Rios

Injury Risks
Frank Thomas
Troy Glaus

So you think Johnson's OBA is likely to dip more than 40 points next year? Rios and Wells will have significantly lower OBA? You think Thomas and Glaus will have OBA below .350?

I personally do not. I feel that all of those players should have OBA over .350, or darn close to it. As for our other starters, I feel that Hill should be around that number, and Overbay should easily surpass it.

Really, our only possible low OBA starting positions are at catcher and the "other middle infielder".

I understand your concern. You feel that that the loss of Greg Zaun's OBA is a huge hit.

I don't. Greg Zaun had 290 at bats last year for us. There was no way he was going to replicate his career year from last season. Do you really think that the 290 relatively high OBA at bats that losing Zaun will cost us and replacing them with Barajas, who has equal or greater power, and better defence is really going to be a killer for this team?

I don't. I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

[Ultimate]

OBP is undervalued in the OPS equation, it is the more important of the two

Can you prove the above statement?

[TrueBlueJay]

Ultimate, I think he might have a point about OBA being more important than OPS.

I don't have any proof, just opinion, but out of 2 guys with .950 OPS, I'd probably rather have a guy with a .400 OBA and a .550 SLG than a guy with a .350 OBA and a .600 SLG.

The main reason is because that .400 OBA guy is getting on base more for his teammates to drive him in too.

But really, the difference isnt great. Both kick arse

[85Jays]

Sabermetricians ... who are the ones who hammered OBP and OPS into a more mainstream position in the first place ... would argue that OBP is undervalued in OPS, though they'll disagree over how much it is undervalued. But statistical evidence suggests that OBP IS undervalued somewhat.

[Bjindaho]

The real problem with OPS is that it is sometimes used as proof of something. OPS suggests. Nothing more. For example, A-Rod had an OPS of .770 in 300+ AB this year the first time seeing a pitcher in a game. Does that mean that A-Rod should never start a game?

The reason OBP is so important is because the goal of offense in baseball is to not make outs. OBP keeps track of how often a player does not make outs, whereas slugging keeps track of how hard the ball is hit, which helps when runners are already on base, but does not create as many runs.

[TrueBlueJay]

OK BJinIdaho got me thinking...heres the proof that OBA is more important than OPS.

Try to imagine this situation:

Lets suppose that you had a player A that hit .500 with a HR every other at bat but never walked or got any other hits.

So he would have an AVG and OBA of .500, and a SLG of 2.000, making for an OPS of 2.500.


Now suppose you had a player B who either got a single or a walk every single at bat. He never hit for power, not a single extra base hit, but he also never made an out. He would have an AVG and OBA of 1.000 and a SLG of 1.000. That would equal an OPS of 2.000.

Which player would you rather have? 9 of player A, or 9 of player B?

Why player B of course. Despite an OPS of .500 less than player A, a team of 9 identical player B's would score an infinite number of runs as they would never make an out. Therefore, theoretically, OBA is more important than OPS. Or, more to the bear bones of it, OBA is more important than SLG.

[fmradioguy]

No, the original post attempted to argue that in Barajas' last 3 seasons, which happened to be the only 3 seasons in his career where he was the STARTING CATCHER, he hit better on the road, outside of Texas' ballpark.

That isn't an argument. That's a statement of fact. The argument was presented with this comment "So if he could continue that career trend, and if he gets 450-500 AB for us, we could expect a .250 avg, with 20 HR and 70 RBI." I've already explained why one can't come to that conclusion.

I don't understand how you can call that a platoon player.

I'm not saying he wasn't the #1 catcher. I'm saying he was platooned. He had more at bats against righties last year while Laird had more ab's against lefties. They played largely according to their hitting strengths.

he'll probably get 120 starts

Possible. The most he ever had was 117 (in 2005). Other than that season he's never started in more than 102 games at catcher. Hopefully he has the durability.

I don't see how my comparison of his road stats is not valid when trying to think of what he could do for us next year.

I never argued road stats shouldn't be looked at. It is a good indication. I have a hard time holding them in too high regard with Barajas, however, because he did much poorer in park that's more friendly to hitters than the Rogers Centre (not that the Roger's Centre isn't hitter friendly.)

Why are you so anti-Barajas?

I'm not as anti-Barajas as you're thinking. I really only have a problem with his OBP. If he isn't getting on base to be driven in, he's a one dimensional hitter and potentially a regular out. Its great that when he does get a hit, there's a good chance it'll be a big hit. Its just his lack of patience I take great issue with.

[gojays2007]

heres the proof that OBA is more important than OPS.

OBP is IN ops, what the heck are you guys talking about?

Noone would use the stat of "1st time up in a game" OPS as a measure of anything. OPS over a season is quite telling.

[TrueBlueJay]

OBP is IN ops, what the heck are you guys talking about?

Yes, OPS takes into accound OBP in its calculation but they are not the same stat. The point I'm making is that while both OPS and OBA are 2 of the more important stats in baseball, OBA is slightly more important. See my example above.

[gojays2007]

Easier to argue that OBP is more important than SLG if that is the way you want to go.

Zaun/Barajas= whatever. Just glad to see JP didn't do something stupid.

[TrueBlueJay]

I suggest you read moneyball, you'll better understand what my point is.