Random Blabbering

Ultimate · November 24th, 2006, 11:52 AM

Thomas. The signing of Frank Thomas was a little bit aggressive in terms of cost but do you think maybe JP anticipated the market going crazy and thought he better get somebody signed before it happened. If Thomas had not yet signed and we were talking to him after the Soriano and Matthews deals don't you think he'd be asking for a little more money. I certainly do. JP made a great move by signing Thomas before all those other contracts were signed.

Big Contracts Its 2001 again, and like in 2001 we are going to see some monster contracts handed out. Much like in 2001 the majority of those contracts will be regretted by the teams involved and the player signed to the massive contract will be practically untradeable unless the team is willing to pick up a huge chunk of the contract(Texas with Arod) or take back another huge contract(Boston deal for Arod that didn't happen). The reason this is happening is because baseball is making money, which is a good thing, sure not all teams are making this kind of money and we still have a balance of power issue but its a good thing that the game is reaching a higher point of profitability. This is also why the CBA was agreed to so quickly. You can make the argument that in a case where the market is going crazy, you still have to compete in that market and sign some big names to fat contracts to compete. THere may be some truth to that but if you do feel the need to compete its a good idea to do it on a shorter term deal like the Jays did with Thomas. Even if Frank is grossly overpaid these next 2 years, atleast its only 2 years and its not a deal we will end up regretting 4-5 years from now, because by then it will be long forgotten. The Cubs won't be able to say that about Soriano.

Pitching Needs- Spending big money on a mediocre pitcher is something I can't endorse. Even if we have to go with Halladay-Burnett-Towers and a couple of kids its a huge waste of money because I am confident we can get similar mediocrity from the kids for a fraction of the cost. That said if we do have to sign a mediocre guy for 9-10 million, lets make it VIncent Padilla, he is atleast consistently mediocre and you know what you will get from him. Another guy I would consider is Miguel Batista I never agreed with making him the closer. Overall I prefer some high risk, low investment 1 year deals that could or could not pan out. Mark Mulder would be nice if we could get him to agree that kind of deal.

Middle infield- Good move not to go for Lugo or Gonzalez, i'd be happy to bring back the old Gonzo to a minor league deal though if he is available. I don't mind Kennedy and I have always liked Loretta but at the kind of money Kennedy is asking for its best we just go with Adams at second, he's still got potential and if he is in the minors all year he will lose considerable value.

Lind- Let him start the year at AAA. If Reed Johnston proves he should be a platooner only, then you call him up and have him platoon with Reed. Otherwise a whole year at AAA and a full year of Reed Johnston being productive every day won't hurt anybody.

Vernon Wells- I like the guy but if he is going to get 17-20 Million a year on a long term deal trade him now. We could probably solve 3 of our holes by trading him now with lower cost players. He is a bargain this year but he isn't worth more than 15 million a year to us since hs has not been a true superstar year in and year out. He is worth more than Soriano to somebody though.

Greg Zaun- Bring him back. He is a team leader, handles the pitching staff, proved he can hit for us, likes Toronto. Barajas had a good year but don't let Zaun leave over half a mil per year, 3 years 7 million might get it done, if not go a little higher.

anne25 · November 24th, 2006, 01:01 PM

Interesting post. I agree with most of what you wrote, especially about Zaun. However, if I were a betting person, I would say that Zaun will not be back.

If JP hasn't all but signed him by now I think that he is going to give Zaun the bums rush. it's too bad, especially after last off season, were IMO he needlessly pulled the rug out from under Zaun. In fact I am surprised that Zaun would even bother to talk contract with JP this year.

gojays2007 · November 24th, 2006, 01:22 PM

any guesses on Reed's ops next season?

Ultimate · November 24th, 2006, 01:59 PM

scronnyjohny · November 28th, 2006, 01:05 PM

I can't see us makeing the playoffs if we trade Wells, unless we get a Mark Texierra type talent back in return. I'd rather just keep him let him sign with Texas and get the draft picks to fill some needs and make some trades from our farm guys to fill whatever our needs are by then.

There is no premium talent available in FA to get bang for your buck, so I think we have to be somewhat stupid and overpay even if we only end up with a small gain in production that little extra is needed to push us into the playoffs in the AL East.

Meche VS Jannsen/Towers/McGowen
Meche hasn't proven he'll be much different than Jannsen or Towers but I think the chance is needed given his Big Upside in order to get us into the playoffs. Meche has a good chance of putting up numbers that you could of got from one of our other pitchers like Jannsen Towers McGowen but he probably also has a 50/50 chance of breaking out this year or the next you can just see it happening, the same way you could for Carpenter and Escobar.

Ultimate · November 28th, 2006, 01:15 PM

Meche has been pitching in Safeco all this time, I don't think he would breakout in the Rogers Centre.

I think we could make the playoffs if we got a good return for Wells. If we got a very good starting pitcher at a reasonable salary, a middle infielder and a good corner outfielder to start then we might even be a better and deeper team overall.

TrueBlueJay · November 28th, 2006, 01:42 PM

Yeah Meche is garbage. Meche would be worse than Marcum or Janssens in the Rogers Centre.

Wells for:

Santana+Aybar+ Saunders

or Santana + Wood

I know, not gonna happen now that they've got Matthews...but would have been nice.

fmradioguy · November 28th, 2006, 02:19 PM

Thomas.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ultimate

JP made a great move by signing Thomas before all those other contracts were signed.

I've been thinking the same thing since these crazy signings began.

Big Contracts. It isn't so much the amount of money being bandied about. Its the commitment teams are making. Many of these contracts have been for considerable lengths of time, which makes me wonder how many teams think they're planning ahead (for future market increase) by biting the bullet now, though that seems like self-fulfilled destiny. I'm just glad JP isn't joining the fray and going equally crazy (so far.)

Pitching Needs.

Quote:

Spending big money on a mediocre pitcher is something I can't endorse. Overall I prefer some high risk, low investment 1 year deals that could or could not pan out. Mark Mulder would be nice if we could get him to agree that kind of deal.

Totally agree. But JP, over his tenure, seems to love pitchers with mediocre histories. He always seems to think he can catch lightning in a bottle with them.

Middle infield.

Quote:

Good move not to go for Lugo or Gonzalez...

Totally agree. Not crazy about Kennedy. I'd rather try Adams again than pay current market prices for a guy of Kennedy's ability.

Lind.

Quote:

Let him start the year at AAA. If Reed Johnston proves he should be a platooner only, then you call him up and have him platoon with Reed.

Exactly what should, and likely will, happen.

Greg Zaun.

Quote:

Bring him back. He is a team leader, handles the pitching staff, proved he can hit for us, likes Toronto.

Glad he's back. Would rather have had him than Barajas.[/quote]

Vernon Wells.

Quote:

I like the guy but if he is going to get 17-20 Million a year on a long term deal trade him now. We could probably solve 3 of our holes by trading him now with lower cost players. He is a bargain this year but he isn't worth more than 15 million a year to us since hs has not been a true superstar year in and year out. He is worth more than Soriano to somebody though.

The only point I really disagree. I have no confidence in Reed to repeat his performance. I'm not a believer in Rios. Lind is a rookie. And Thomas and Glaus are big health risks. Wells is the most stable and productive part of the line-up and you're not going to find someone with his kind of production and defense for $6 million. He's far too valuable to a team that's hoping to make the playoffs and which also needs the money to sign pitching help. Trading a known and cheap commodity like Wells would be robbing Peter to pay Paul and is a risk I don't want to see the Jays take.

If the Jays falter, trade him at the all-star break. They may not get as much in return at that time of year but it won't be terrible, either. I'd rather have him leave as a free agent at the end of the year if it means the Jays make the playoffs.

Escobar · November 28th, 2006, 05:38 PM

This is where J.P. makes the big bucks, he’s going to have to predict the next year free agent market

A)
We could let Wells walk away as a free agent and settle for the draft picks that would take years to develop, on the condition we can require a replacement and fill holes on the team at a reasonable price
B)
If the market dictates that unreasonable contracts will be given out, we need to trade Wells in order to fill holes on the team with proven and ready to contribute talent. Draft picks for Wells is not an option since we’d have to wait for them to develop

Ultimate · November 28th, 2006, 06:14 PM

FM, I agree with you somewhat about Wells, I only advocate trading him if we can get back a package of considerable value in terms of both talent and cheap contract. Your right that you won't find somebody as good as Wells for 6 million, but in the long run I think you can find 3 players for 6 million each who will alltogether be more valuable to us than Wells will be.

If its a forgone conclusion that he isn't going to resign then I think you need to trade him now if you can get a lucrative package in return.

risinghorizon · November 30th, 2006, 08:38 PM

Quote:

Anne25: Interesting post. I agree with most of what you wrote, especially about Zaun. However, if I were a betting person, I would say that Zaun will not be back.

Aren't you glad you are not a betting person, Anne?

I got my wish. He remains a Jay amidst all the controversy about the deal with Barajas.

anne25 · November 30th, 2006, 11:03 PM

That JP, He is just full of surprises.

That's why I don't bet. But if I did, it's one bet I don't mind losing.

Noob · December 1st, 2006, 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Escobar

This is where J.P. makes the big bucks, he’s going to have to predict the next year free agent market

A)
We could let Wells walk away as a free agent and settle for the draft picks that would take years to develop, on the condition we can require a replacement and fill holes on the team at a reasonable price
B)
If the market dictates that unreasonable contracts will be given out, we need to trade Wells in order to fill holes on the team with proven and ready to contribute talent. Draft picks for Wells is not an option since we’d have to wait for them to develop

Do you still get draft picks if players arn't re-signed? I thought they eliminated that in the new CBA.

Ultimate · December 6th, 2006, 04:44 PM

Yes you still get draft picks.

Noob · December 6th, 2006, 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ultimate

Yes you still get draft picks.

Thanks

November 24th, 2006, 11:52 AM	#1 (permalink)
Ultimate Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 116	Random Blabbering Thomas. The signing of Frank Thomas was a little bit aggressive in terms of cost but do you think maybe JP anticipated the market going crazy and thought he better get somebody signed before it happened. If Thomas had not yet signed and we were talking to him after the Soriano and Matthews deals don't you think he'd be asking for a little more money. I certainly do. JP made a great move by signing Thomas before all those other contracts were signed. Big Contracts Its 2001 again, and like in 2001 we are going to see some monster contracts handed out. Much like in 2001 the majority of those contracts will be regretted by the teams involved and the player signed to the massive contract will be practically untradeable unless the team is willing to pick up a huge chunk of the contract(Texas with Arod) or take back another huge contract(Boston deal for Arod that didn't happen). The reason this is happening is because baseball is making money, which is a good thing, sure not all teams are making this kind of money and we still have a balance of power issue but its a good thing that the game is reaching a higher point of profitability. This is also why the CBA was agreed to so quickly. You can make the argument that in a case where the market is going crazy, you still have to compete in that market and sign some big names to fat contracts to compete. THere may be some truth to that but if you do feel the need to compete its a good idea to do it on a shorter term deal like the Jays did with Thomas. Even if Frank is grossly overpaid these next 2 years, atleast its only 2 years and its not a deal we will end up regretting 4-5 years from now, because by then it will be long forgotten. The Cubs won't be able to say that about Soriano. Pitching Needs- Spending big money on a mediocre pitcher is something I can't endorse. Even if we have to go with Halladay-Burnett-Towers and a couple of kids its a huge waste of money because I am confident we can get similar mediocrity from the kids for a fraction of the cost. That said if we do have to sign a mediocre guy for 9-10 million, lets make it VIncent Padilla, he is atleast consistently mediocre and you know what you will get from him. Another guy I would consider is Miguel Batista I never agreed with making him the closer. Overall I prefer some high risk, low investment 1 year deals that could or could not pan out. Mark Mulder would be nice if we could get him to agree that kind of deal. Middle infield- Good move not to go for Lugo or Gonzalez, i'd be happy to bring back the old Gonzo to a minor league deal though if he is available. I don't mind Kennedy and I have always liked Loretta but at the kind of money Kennedy is asking for its best we just go with Adams at second, he's still got potential and if he is in the minors all year he will lose considerable value. Lind- Let him start the year at AAA. If Reed Johnston proves he should be a platooner only, then you call him up and have him platoon with Reed. Otherwise a whole year at AAA and a full year of Reed Johnston being productive every day won't hurt anybody. Vernon Wells- I like the guy but if he is going to get 17-20 Million a year on a long term deal trade him now. We could probably solve 3 of our holes by trading him now with lower cost players. He is a bargain this year but he isn't worth more than 15 million a year to us since hs has not been a true superstar year in and year out. He is worth more than Soriano to somebody though. Greg Zaun- Bring him back. He is a team leader, handles the pitching staff, proved he can hit for us, likes Toronto. Barajas had a good year but don't let Zaun leave over half a mil per year, 3 years 7 million might get it done, if not go a little higher. Last edited by Ultimate; November 24th, 2006 at 11:56 AM.

November 24th, 2006, 01:59 PM	#4 (permalink)
Ultimate Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 116	.790

November 24th, 2006, 01:01 PM	#2 (permalink)
anne25 Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Ottawa Posts: 125	Interesting post. I agree with most of what you wrote, especially about Zaun. However, if I were a betting person, I would say that Zaun will not be back. If JP hasn't all but signed him by now I think that he is going to give Zaun the bums rush. it's too bad, especially after last off season, were IMO he needlessly pulled the rug out from under Zaun. In fact I am surprised that Zaun would even bother to talk contract with JP this year.

November 24th, 2006, 01:22 PM	#3 (permalink)
gojays2007 Banned Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 177	any guesses on Reed's ops next season?

November 28th, 2006, 01:05 PM	#5 (permalink)
scronnyjohny Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Vancouver Posts: 20	I can't see us makeing the playoffs if we trade Wells, unless we get a Mark Texierra type talent back in return. I'd rather just keep him let him sign with Texas and get the draft picks to fill some needs and make some trades from our farm guys to fill whatever our needs are by then. There is no premium talent available in FA to get bang for your buck, so I think we have to be somewhat stupid and overpay even if we only end up with a small gain in production that little extra is needed to push us into the playoffs in the AL East. Meche VS Jannsen/Towers/McGowen Meche hasn't proven he'll be much different than Jannsen or Towers but I think the chance is needed given his Big Upside in order to get us into the playoffs. Meche has a good chance of putting up numbers that you could of got from one of our other pitchers like Jannsen Towers McGowen but he probably also has a 50/50 chance of breaking out this year or the next you can just see it happening, the same way you could for Carpenter and Escobar.

November 28th, 2006, 01:15 PM	#6 (permalink)
Ultimate Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 116	Meche has been pitching in Safeco all this time, I don't think he would breakout in the Rogers Centre. I think we could make the playoffs if we got a good return for Wells. If we got a very good starting pitcher at a reasonable salary, a middle infielder and a good corner outfielder to start then we might even be a better and deeper team overall.

November 28th, 2006, 01:42 PM	#7 (permalink)
TrueBlueJay Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 174	Yeah Meche is garbage. Meche would be worse than Marcum or Janssens in the Rogers Centre. Wells for: Santana+Aybar+ Saunders or Santana + Wood I know, not gonna happen now that they've got Matthews...but would have been nice.

November 28th, 2006, 05:38 PM	#9 (permalink)
Escobar Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 13	This is where J.P. makes the big bucks, he’s going to have to predict the next year free agent market A) We could let Wells walk away as a free agent and settle for the draft picks that would take years to develop, on the condition we can require a replacement and fill holes on the team at a reasonable price B) If the market dictates that unreasonable contracts will be given out, we need to trade Wells in order to fill holes on the team with proven and ready to contribute talent. Draft picks for Wells is not an option since we’d have to wait for them to develop

November 28th, 2006, 06:14 PM	#10 (permalink)
Ultimate Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 116	FM, I agree with you somewhat about Wells, I only advocate trading him if we can get back a package of considerable value in terms of both talent and cheap contract. Your right that you won't find somebody as good as Wells for 6 million, but in the long run I think you can find 3 players for 6 million each who will alltogether be more valuable to us than Wells will be. If its a forgone conclusion that he isn't going to resign then I think you need to trade him now if you can get a lucrative package in return.

November 30th, 2006, 11:03 PM	#12 (permalink)
anne25 Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Ottawa Posts: 125	That JP, He is just full of surprises. That's why I don't bet. But if I did, it's one bet I don't mind losing.

December 6th, 2006, 04:44 PM	#14 (permalink)
Ultimate Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 116	Yes you still get draft picks.