Blue Jays Predictions for 2007

[TrueBlueJay]

As the lineup stands now: (only signed players, I'll make adjustments as we sign others)

LF Reed .285/.370/.440, 12 HR, 100 runs, 65 rbi
1B Overbay .310/.380/.510, 25 HR, 90 runs, 95 rbi(need a lefty near the top, why not him?)
CF Wells .290/.350/.530, 33 HR, 100 runs, 110 rbi
DH Thomas .275/.380/.525, 40 HR, 80 runs, 100 rbi (if healthy)
3B Glaus .260/.370/.500, 38 HR, 80 runs, 100 rbi
RF Rios .300/.360/.500, 27 HR, 95 runs, 90 rbi
SS Hill .290/.350/.440, 10 HR, 75 runs, 65 rbi
C Phillips .255/.325/.400, 12 HR, 55 runs 55 rbi
2B Adams .255/.330/.400, 10 HR, 60 runs, 60 rbi

Rotation:

Halladay 20-7, 3.20 ERA
Burnett 17-10, 3.70 ERA
Chacin 15-11, 4.50 ERA
Marcum 12-11, 4.90 ERA
Janssen 11-10, 4.90 ERA

[Noob]

Not to point out the obvious but we need to add another arm, and address catcher and 2nd base.

My choices:
SP: Mark Mulder
2nd: Mark Loretta
C: Greg Zaun

[TrueBlueJay]

Yup, but like I said im just addressing the players we have under contract now. As we add players I'll add their predicted stats too

[Dan]

Originally Posted by Noob

Not to point out the obvious but we need to add another arm, and address catcher and 2nd base.

My choices:
SP: Mark Mulder
2nd: Mark Loretta
C: Greg Zaun

Mark Mulder would scare the hell out of me...

Shaky track record in the National League recently with injury problems. Sure, he had success in the American league with the Athletics, but that was a long time ago, not sure if he will ever be that pitcher again. He's more of a shell of his former self, in my opinion. But hey, I can be wrong.

[Ultimate]

I think your being a tad overly optimistic with those numbers as I think you've posted the ceiling for each player. Some of them will hit their ceilings but some will not.

[gojays2007]

ops seems to be falling

[TrueBlueJay]

Originally Posted by Ultimate

I think your being a tad overly optimistic with those numbers as I think you've posted the ceiling for each player. Some of them will hit their ceilings but some will not.

Maybe one or two. But most? No.

LF Reed .285/.370/.440, 12 HR, 100 runs, 65 rbi

-you think thats Reed's ceiling? Last year proves otherwise.

1B Overbay .310/.380/.510, 25 HR, 90 runs, 95 rbi
-he put up numbers like this last year...how would this be his ceiling?

CF Wells .290/.350/.530, 33 HR, 100 runs, 110 rbi
-He's already had 2 seasons that were better than this prediction (last year, and 2003) How is this an unrealistic prediction?

DH Thomas .275/.380/.525, 40 HR, 80 runs, 100 rbi
-How would this be a pipe dream for a healthy Frank Thomas? He did it last year.


3B Glaus .260/.370/.500, 38 HR, 80 runs, 100 rbi
-this is a typical Glaus season. I certainly didn't reach with this one.

RF Rios .300/.360/.500, 27 HR, 95 runs, 90 rbi
-Rios was on pace for these numbers or better last year before he got hurt. He was also on pace to do it with a higher batting average (.339). This may be a bit optimistic, but it certainly isn't Rios' ceiling. He could very well do much better than this next year, for all we know.

SS Hill .290/.350/.440, 10 HR, 75 runs, 65 rbi
-how am I out of line with this prediction?

C Phillips .255/.325/.400, 12 HR, 55 runs 55 rbi
-this is basically Jason Phillips' 162 game career average, so I am definitely not reaching with this prediction.

2B Adams .255/.330/.400, 10 HR, 60 runs, 60 rbi
-maybe seen as a bit of a reach given that last year he looked like he'd struggle to hit .200. But its a new season, and with a new opportunity, he could end up doing better than this. So I dont thin this is much of a stretch.

Rotation:

Halladay 20-7, 3.20 ERA - if healthy, this is a given

Burnett 17-10, 3.70 ERA - he actually pitched better than this in the 2nd half last year, and the ERA is right in line with his career ERA. If healthy, this is a reasonable prediction.

Chacin 15-11, 4.50 ERA - How is this unreasonable? He won 13 games in his rookie year, and was on pace for MORE than 15 wins last season (wasnt he 9-4 in 17 starts?) His career ERA is 4.05, so you might say that I was too hard on him with that prediction.

Marcum 12-11, 4.90 ERA - His ERA was 5.06 last year as a rookie. He showed flashes of brilliance. You think its completely unreasonable for him to shave 0.16 off his ERA next year?

Janssen 11-10, 4.90 ERA - His ERA was 5.07 last year as a rookie, and he showed some amazing potential at times earlier in the season. You think its completely unreasonable for him to shave 0.17 off his ERA next year?

[Ultimate]

I said you were being a "tad" optimistic, which means just a little. I didn't say you were reaching.

Reed- had great numbers while platooning with Cat, but look at his numbers from after he became a full time player. They don't compare.

Overbay- Not a bad prediction, I wouldn't be surprised if his OBP and SLG were a little lower, but I don't expect anything better then what you are predicting.

Wells- I never said unrealistic. He has done better than this yes, but he hasn't done it year in year out so I would say I don't expect this level from him but he certainly is capable of it, and in a contract year he probably will produce it.

Thomas- Once again I never said pipe dream I said a tad optimistic. Yes THomas did it last year, but he has been mostly out of the lineup the last 3 years. So I would say a repeat of last year is his ceiling. I think he can do it, but I don't see him doing better than last year.

Glaus- once again I never said reach. If he is healthy all year he should be able to do something like this I agree.

Rios- Yes he was on pace, but the fact remains that he has never done anything close to this over a full season.

Hill- I think he can produce at that level but I don't think he can do much better.

Phillips- Hopefully he won't be starting for us, It may be his 162 game average but I don't think he would give us a .700 OPS over a full year. Plus name me the last catcher who played 162 games in a season?

Adams- This one I don't see as much of a reach, I'm confident he can give us a .700 OPS

Hallady- If Healthy is the key word here.

Burnett- Once again if healthy.

Chacin- Once again if healthy, he might havebeen on pace for 15 wins but he has never won 15 and I would say 15 wins is his ceiling

Marcum- Please stop misquoting me I never said "Completely unreasonable"

Jansenn- see above.

Let me clarify my original point since you misunderstood it. I think all the predictions above are within reach of each players potential. However there will be some dissapointments on next years team as there are every year and there will be some cases that due to injuries or bad performances certain players you listed will fall significantly short of your projections. If every one of your projections turns out to be 100% accurate, we are a playoff team and don't need to add anybody else.

[TrueBlueJay]

Originally Posted by Ultimate

Phillips- Hopefully he won't be starting for us, It may be his 162 game average but I don't think he would give us a .700 OPS over a full year. Plus name me the last catcher who played 162 games in a season?

I said they are his 162 game averages, which is just an average full season of stats from baseballreference.com based on his career thus far.

His 162 game average is I think 489 At bats, which is certainly attainable for any starting catcher.

And I know as well as you do that Phillips wont be our starter next year. I just used him because as of right now, he is all we have. And I used his career averages to predict his stats, simple as that.

As for the rest of my predictions, you just admitted yourself that they are pretty much all close to or on par with what could be expected. This is immediately following a post where you said I had posted the ceiling for every player.

I just think you were a little harsh with that and was defending myself, thats all no hard feelings


And I know that anything can happen, and that some players could be well below that, but I think some players could be well above it too. Heck, in my opinion, Overbay, Wells, Rios, Glaus, Doc, AJ, Marcum, Janssen, and even Reed could put up significantly better seasons than what I predicted.

Bottom line is I dont feel I posted all ceilings. But anyways, no need to argue.

Why not post your own predictions? Its all in fun.

[Ultimate]

I think your predictions are a tad optimistic, and I do maintain that they are basically the ceiling for each player, give or take. There might be a surprise or two that significantly surpasses those predictions. But for the most part I'll be pretty satisfied with those numbers.

I prefer not to post my own predictions because I don't think that way. For example Frank Thomas, he could either repeat last year as you have predicted or he could play 30 games and hit 6 homeruns with 19 RBI's. I think more in terms of the odds in my opinion of several possible results. I'd prefer to analyze each individual player and situation seperately in more detail than to post predictions. I am also hesitant because I know that won't be the Blue Jays starting roster.

But you got me thinking about the pitching, we are better off than I realized and no way do we need to sign Padilla, Meche or Lilly to a monster contract.

[TrueBlueJay]

yup, I completely agree about pitching!

Padilla and Meche are almost as likely as Marcum or Janssen to put up a 5.00 ERA for us.

(Meche especially - look at his road stats outside of Safeco)

And it just isnt worth all that excess money.

In fact I'd argue that Janssen has a higher ceiling than either Meche or Padilla. I mean, he showed flashes of brilliance last year before losing his confidence. You never know, he could stink it up next year, but he could shine as a soph and put up a 4.00 ERA, which is why I'd rather go with him...

[scronnyjohny]

It seriously looks like this is what our roster will be.

Predictions:

Rotation
1 Halladay 21 wins/3.30
2 Burnett 17 wins/3.95
3 Meche 15 wins/4.35
4 Chacin 13 wins/4.60
5 Marcum 12 wins/4.70

Bullpen
1 Ryan 1.95
2 League 2.95
3 Accardo 3.65
4 Romero 4.30
5 Frasor 4.15
6 Janssen 3.95
7 Downs 4.20

Offense
1 LF Johnson 310/15 hr
2 SS Lugo 280/13 hr
3 CF Wells 300/33 hr
4 DH Thomas 270/40 hr
5 1B Overbay 305/27 hr
6 3B Glaus 260/38 hr
7 RF Rios 310/30 hr
8 C Zaun 265/16 hr
9 2B Hill 300/13 hr

Bench
1 C Phillips 245/4 hr
2 OF Lind 290/5 hr
3 Inf Hattig 260/3 hr
4 Inf McDonald 225/0 hr

[Ultimate]

Scronny, all indications are that the Jays lost interest in Lugo quite a whle ago.

Have you heard anything different?

[scronnyjohny]

I thought that was because of the Redsox.
Unless he stays with the Dodgers there's really no big market team wanting a shortstop.

[Ultimate]

I suppose we could have re-entered the Lugo sweepstakes if his price dropped due to lack of interest.

Looks like all are problems are solved now. Royce Clayton is a Jay according to danjulien