Padilla at $11.3M/per? Just keeps getting crazier! - Page 8

TheGreatGazoo · December 10th, 2006, 09:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TrueBlueJay

Hey man, calm down.

Oh... I'm quite calm.

TrueBlueJay · December 10th, 2006, 09:58 AM

Good then lets lay off the insults OK? Theres no reason for you to attack me like you did, just because you don't agree with me.

TheGreatGazoo · December 10th, 2006, 12:24 PM

Is it an insult if it's the truth?

TrueBlueJay · December 10th, 2006, 12:44 PM

*ignore*

WilsonC · December 11th, 2006, 07:40 AM

If I recall correctly, Smoltz in 02 is a good example of an outstanding relief season that's not captured very well in his WHIP/ERA. I seem to remember him having a few awful outings at the start of the year, then going on to be fantastic the rest of the way. That's not to say the awful outings should be discounted in evaluating that season, but it does create a significant skew in the ERA and WHIP for that season that's no doubt quite different from its true value pattern.

bedir than average · December 11th, 2006, 07:53 AM

Since no one has linked it yet.

Win Probability Added for Relievers in 2006

BJ comes in 4th

WPA is a great way to judge relievers as it takes their use and situation (Leverage Index) and applies their performance to see how they either increased or decreased the team's ability to win the game.

BJ's 4.75 in 2006 was better than every pitcher in 2005, would have been 7th in 2004, 2nd in 2003, and 5th in 2002.

That is an impressive season, so while it might not be one of the greatest of all time, it is certainly one of the best of this century.

gojays2007 · December 11th, 2006, 08:03 AM

I'm gonna need more explanation to make sense of that formula. Anibal Sanchez is higher than Roy Halladay and Zumaya is higher than Mariano Rivera.

"of this century"
I forgot we were in the 2000's now, at first I thought you meant over the past 100 years. I could live with saying BJ Ryan had one of the greatest seasons as a reliever since the year 2000. No problem there.

TrueBlueJay · December 11th, 2006, 08:21 AM

thank goodness you can live with it

bedir than average · December 11th, 2006, 08:29 AM

gojays, I will look around, I am trying to reach out to the saber guys who have been posting on FanHome for years, guys like tangotiger, mgl, studes, pitchingwins, etc.

gojays2007 · December 11th, 2006, 05:29 PM

Guessing you have no opinion on data. It's all about era/whip for relievers, no matter how many people who know more than you do about the subject tell you otherwise.

TrueBlueJay · December 11th, 2006, 05:34 PM

I'm sorry for having a different opinion than you. Its unfortunate that you've decided to ridicule me for that.

Kris · December 11th, 2006, 08:27 PM

I wouldn't use WPA to rank relievers since the situation influence the stat. For example you will think a good hitting club like the Yankees wouldn't have many close games so Rivera's WPA would be lower over the last 10 years. How the manager uses the reliever can also influence the stat. Since a 3 run lead is a 96% of a win and thus a low ranking in WPA I would think a manager who using his closer in that situation would cause the closer to come out with a lower WPA Vs a manager who uses his closer in close games. The reliever in that situation is not the issue but the manager. For example one of the reasons Ryan has a good WPA is because the Jays liked to bring him in close games in 8th when a reliever was in trouble to save the game. He would get extra WPA points for that. Gaston was by the books manager so Ward would pitch the 9th.

WPA is much better than saves because the situation is factored in. But it is more of a hmmm that is interesting than a ranking stat. But Ryan looks very good with his 2006 WPA. He pitched great and pitched in a lot of key situations.

As for Ward 93 Vs Ryan 06. It is Ryan because of his ERA.

ERA+(ERA over average)
Ryan 343
Ward 205

Ryan had a great ERA and in a season were the hitters scored more runs than 93.

Ryan has the performance stats of HR/9 and B/9, Ward has K/9. But both are great in all stats.

But one thing should be pointed out is Ward pitched more innings pre 93. So is his 92 season better than his 93 season because of 30 more innings? More value but not I am not sure better. So he had more value than Ryan in 92. But it is also the reason Ward was finish by age 29.

December 10th, 2006, 09:58 AM	#107 (permalink)
TrueBlueJay Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 174	Good then lets lay off the insults OK? Theres no reason for you to attack me like you did, just because you don't agree with me. Last edited by TrueBlueJay; December 10th, 2006 at 10:08 AM.

December 11th, 2006, 07:53 AM	#111 (permalink)
bedir than average Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Starbucks Posts: 8,258	Since no one has linked it yet. Win Probability Added for Relievers in 2006 BJ comes in 4th WPA is a great way to judge relievers as it takes their use and situation (Leverage Index) and applies their performance to see how they either increased or decreased the team's ability to win the game. BJ's 4.75 in 2006 was better than every pitcher in 2005, would have been 7th in 2004, 2nd in 2003, and 5th in 2002. That is an impressive season, so while it might not be one of the greatest of all time, it is certainly one of the best of this century. __________________ I'm sorry I left for a while. I needed a vaction, and then work changed substantially. I'm over 50 hour weeks, plus two hours a day of commuting time. A few weeks ago I launched my own blog about Seattle Sounders FC and Life in Puget Sound. I won't be by these parts often as my focus has changed. Sorry about the unannounced retirement.

December 11th, 2006, 08:29 AM	#114 (permalink)
bedir than average Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Starbucks Posts: 8,258	gojays, I will look around, I am trying to reach out to the saber guys who have been posting on FanHome for years, guys like tangotiger, mgl, studes, pitchingwins, etc. __________________ I'm sorry I left for a while. I needed a vaction, and then work changed substantially. I'm over 50 hour weeks, plus two hours a day of commuting time. A few weeks ago I launched my own blog about Seattle Sounders FC and Life in Puget Sound. I won't be by these parts often as my focus has changed. Sorry about the unannounced retirement.

December 11th, 2006, 05:34 PM	#116 (permalink)
TrueBlueJay Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 174	I'm sorry for having a different opinion than you. Its unfortunate that you've decided to ridicule me for that. Last edited by TrueBlueJay; December 11th, 2006 at 05:50 PM.

December 11th, 2006, 08:27 PM	#117 (permalink)
Kris New Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 5	I wouldn't use WPA to rank relievers since the situation influence the stat. For example you will think a good hitting club like the Yankees wouldn't have many close games so Rivera's WPA would be lower over the last 10 years. How the manager uses the reliever can also influence the stat. Since a 3 run lead is a 96% of a win and thus a low ranking in WPA I would think a manager who using his closer in that situation would cause the closer to come out with a lower WPA Vs a manager who uses his closer in close games. The reliever in that situation is not the issue but the manager. For example one of the reasons Ryan has a good WPA is because the Jays liked to bring him in close games in 8th when a reliever was in trouble to save the game. He would get extra WPA points for that. Gaston was by the books manager so Ward would pitch the 9th. WPA is much better than saves because the situation is factored in. But it is more of a hmmm that is interesting than a ranking stat. But Ryan looks very good with his 2006 WPA. He pitched great and pitched in a lot of key situations. As for Ward 93 Vs Ryan 06. It is Ryan because of his ERA. ERA+(ERA over average) Ryan 343 Ward 205 Ryan had a great ERA and in a season were the hitters scored more runs than 93. Ryan has the performance stats of HR/9 and B/9, Ward has K/9. But both are great in all stats. But one thing should be pointed out is Ward pitched more innings pre 93. So is his 92 season better than his 93 season because of 30 more innings? More value but not I am not sure better. So he had more value than Ryan in 92. But it is also the reason Ward was finish by age 29. Last edited by Kris; December 11th, 2006 at 08:32 PM.

December 10th, 2006, 12:24 PM	#108 (permalink)
TheGreatGazoo Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Zetox Posts: 27	Is it an insult if it's the truth?

December 10th, 2006, 12:44 PM	#109 (permalink)
TrueBlueJay Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 174	ignore

December 11th, 2006, 07:40 AM	#110 (permalink)
WilsonC Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 121	If I recall correctly, Smoltz in 02 is a good example of an outstanding relief season that's not captured very well in his WHIP/ERA. I seem to remember him having a few awful outings at the start of the year, then going on to be fantastic the rest of the way. That's not to say the awful outings should be discounted in evaluating that season, but it does create a significant skew in the ERA and WHIP for that season that's no doubt quite different from its true value pattern.

December 11th, 2006, 08:03 AM	#112 (permalink)
gojays2007 Banned Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 177	I'm gonna need more explanation to make sense of that formula. Anibal Sanchez is higher than Roy Halladay and Zumaya is higher than Mariano Rivera. "of this century" I forgot we were in the 2000's now, at first I thought you meant over the past 100 years. I could live with saying BJ Ryan had one of the greatest seasons as a reliever since the year 2000. No problem there.

December 11th, 2006, 08:21 AM	#113 (permalink)
TrueBlueJay Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 174	thank goodness you can live with it

December 11th, 2006, 05:29 PM	#115 (permalink)
gojays2007 Banned Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 177	Guessing you have no opinion on data. It's all about era/whip for relievers, no matter how many people who know more than you do about the subject tell you otherwise.