Padilla at $11.3M/per? Just keeps getting crazier!

[Noob]

Originally Posted by gojays2007

Rivera has had several years like BJ's last year..you know what...nevermind

BJ has the John Rocker like sprint from the bull-pen. Rivera does not.

Seriously though until BJ proves he can repeat what he did last year and prove he can do it in the playoffs. Rivera by a mile.

[TrueBlueJay]

but Noob, this is not about Rivera vs. BJ. For some reason gojaysgo2007 is trying to turn it into that.

In fact I'm still confused as to why Rivera's name was even brought up in the first place.

[Ultimate]

I agree with TrueBlueJay completely. BJ's 2006 was one of the best ever by a reliever.

Its not a Rivera vs. Ryan debate. But if thats what you want to make it. Its not like BJ was a one year wonder, he also dominated in 2005 for the Orioles and many on the boards were saying "He can't repeat that season". Well he dind't he surpassed it. That being said Rivera has been a better closer over a longer period of time than Ryan. But based on the past season Ryan is better. Even if you look at the past 2 seasons.

[gojays2007]

Ryan had an incredible season as closer in terms of era and whip particularly (38/42 save attempts 90 percent). However, to say it is one of the best ever when you can easily find many seasons comparable to it (several by rivera alone) it doesn't sound that eye-dropping. Splitting hairs over era or k/9 instead of save pct is questionable as well. I would put gagne's big season over ryan's, eckersly's big season, several of rivera's especially with post season included.

Again, I like Ryan, but frankly when a closer has as season near a 2 era, near a 1 whip and 90 pct save rate, it is a wash with another one with those same figures. Take the .81whip is better than .88whip or 1.78 era is better than 1.85 era talk all you want.

Open more to interpretation of the season as a "reliever" and not just a closer.

[gojays2007]

Ryan:
72ip, 86k, 38sv 1.37era .85whip

Hoffman 98:
73ip, 86k, 53sv, 1.48era, .84whip

Hoffman 96:
88ip, 111k, 42sv, 2.25, .92

Hoffman 99:
67ip, 73k 40sv, 2.14, .93

Hoffman 06:
63ip, 50k, 46sv, 2.14, .96

Nen 96:
83ip, 92k, 35sv, 1.95, 1.06

Nen 98:
88ip, 110k, 40sv, 1.52, .94

Montgomery:
87ip, 66k, 45sv, 2.27, 1.00

Wetteland 93:
85ip, 113k, 3sv, 1.37, 1.00

Wetteland 97:
65ip, 63k, 31sv, 1.94, .98

Sutter 84:
122ip, 77k, 45sv, 1.54, 1.07

Doug Jones:
111ip, 93k, 36sv,1.85, 1.01

Smoltz 03:
64ip, 73k, 45sv, 1.12, .87

Benitez 04::
69ip, 62k, 47sv, 1.29, .81

[gojays2007]

Shaw 96:
104ip 74k, 42sv, 2.49, .96

Shaw 97:
94ip, 55k, 48sv, 2.38, 1.10

Thigpen 90:
88ip, 70k, 57sv, 1.83, 1.03

Ward 93:
71ip, 97k, 45sv, 2.13, 1.03

Beck 93:
79ip, 86k, 48sv, 2.16, .88

Urbina 98:
69ip, 94k, 34sv, 1.30, 1.07

Saito 06:
78ip, 107k, 24sv, 2.07, .90

Foulke 01:
81ip, 75k, 42sv, 2.33, .97

Foulke 03:
86ip, 88k, 43sv, 2.08, .88

Foulke 04:
83ip, 79k, 32sv, 2.17, .94

[TrueBlueJay]

You seem determined to prove me wrong.

Yes there are plenty of great reliever seasons. But it doesnt change the fact that BJ's is still one of the best.

I did a filtered search where I sorted all 30+ save seasons by WHIP. BJ finished 12th of all time. Then I sorted it by ERA. He finished 9th. Combining those 2, he DEFINITELY had one of the greatest seasons by a reliever of all time, as ERA and WHIP are the 2 best indicators of a pitchers effectiveness.

Looking at the same stats I've already presented, Eckersley and Gagne are probably the top 2 just because their WHIP's are the 2 lowest, and their ERA's are miniscule. BJ's season falls somewhere in the next 10.

Some of the seasons you listed don't belong in a group of "top seasons". Jeff Shaw had a whip of 1.10 an ERA of 2.38, and a bad K/9IP ratio. That is nowhere near as impressive as the 11 I listed.

Of the seasons you did list, Saito 06, Foulke 03, Beck 93, Nen 98, Hoffman 98 would probably make a top 30 seasons by a reliever list.

WHIP really is the key stats, followed closely by ERA. If you have a WHIP over 0.95, then there are just far too many other pitchers who have had better seasons to consider.

[gojays2007]

Um, I think you are discounting ip and save conversions in your little formula. Also, ERA for relievers are far from the best tool to judge their effectiveness. They come in with the bases loaded and allow three straight singles/walks and none of the runs are assigned to their era.

Again, you are splitting hairs in terms of era/whip. Anytime it is under 1 that means you allowed less than one runner on base per inning. Pretty much perfect. .7, .8, .9 whatever. K/9 is important, but more of a telling stat for sp's. Most of these pitchers are in the excellent range of k/9 anyhow so again, splitting hairs. You know what may be even more intimidating than a game ending K, A game ending broken bat dribbler back to the mound. If a closer comes in all season and gets all groundouts, double plays, fly outs without allowing runs to score, you really are going to say it wasn't as good because he didn't necessarily strike them out?

He certainly had an awesome season, but so did many, many , other pitchers have comparable seasons, especially since you just said relief, go look at some of the older guys pitching many more innings of relief in a season. They may have a pesky 2 + era though. Moving on:

Eck 89:
57ip, 55k, 33sv, 1.56, .60

Eck 92:
80ip, 93k, 51sv, 1.91, .91(won mvp/cy young in the year with the higher era/whip)

Street 05:
78ip, 72k, 23sv, 1.72, 1.00

Cordero 05:
74ip 61k, 47sv, 1.82, .96

Nathan 04:
72ip, 89k, 44sv, 1.62, .98

Nathan 06:
68ip, 95k, 36sv, 1.58, .79

Mike Jackson:
64ip, 55k, 40sv, 1.55, .87

Gagne 02 03 04
Wagner 99 03 05
Basically any rivera season.

In conclusion, almost every season at least one person has a comparable year to Ryan in 06.

[TrueBlueJay]

Saves? The only use I have for saves is that I'm using a minimum of 30 for my list, for the sake of defining "closer" BJ Ryan (or Bruce Sutter's 1977 season) shouldnt hold him back because he had less saves than most on the list. Saves are one of the stupidest stats because its easy to get a save when you enter a game with a lead of more than 1 run, and there are some closers who clearly benefit more from that than others.

The bottom line for effectiveness is #1 WHIP and #2 ERA. How many baserunners you are allowing per inning, and how many runs you are allowing. Thats all you can be expected to do, its under your control. I do agree with you that IP is an important factor as well. A lot tougher to put up crazy numbers over 70 or 80 IP as opposed to 50 or 60. Which is why I listed Bruce Sutters 1977 season below higher up than a few others with lower WHIP, because he did it in 107 IP. Although I dont think that # of saves aren't that important since its team dependent, I do also agree that save % is a good stat, however I think its safe to say that everyone on my below list had great conversion rates since you couldnt put up a sub 1.50 ERA with a sub 0.90 WHIP if you are blowing a lot of saves.


My original list back on page 1 wasnt my top list, it was merely a list sorted by ERA. There are a few guys with high WHIP's who in my opinion shouldnt be there, so I'll list my top 15 seasons by a reliever with 30+ saves.

The top 3 are pretty clear cut, but really #'s 4-15 could be arranged in almost any order, they are all so close. (I tend to lean towards WHIP as my most important stat) Notice that I didnt use # of saves as a factor.


My Top seasons with 30+ Saves:
1. 90 Eckersley - 0.61 ERA, 0.61 WHIP 8.96 K/9, 73 IP
2. 03 Gagne - 1.20 ERA, 0.69 WHIP 14.98 K/9, 82 IP
3. 89 Eckersley - 1.56 ERA, 0.61 WHIP, 8.58 K/9, 58 IP
4. 06 Paplebon - 0.92 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 9.88 K/9, 68 IP
5. 99 Wagner - 1.57 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 14.95 K/9, 75 IP
6. 06 Nathan - 1.58 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 12.51 K/9, 68 IP
7. 04 Benitez - 1.29 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 8.01 K/9, 70 IP
9. 77 Sutter - 1.34 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 10.82 K/9, 107 IP
9. 05 Wagner - 1.51 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 10.08 K/9, 78 IP
10. 00 Nen - 1.50 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 12.55 K/9, 66 IP
11. 98 Hoffman - 1.48 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 10.60 K/9, 73 IP
12. 06 Ryan - 1.37 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 10.70 K/9, 72 IP
13. 93 Harvey - 1.70 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 9.52 K/9, 69 IP
14. 05 Rivera - 1.38 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 9.19 K/9, 78 IP
15. 02 Gagne - 1.97 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 12.50 K/9, 82 IP

[gojays2007]

All of those above seasons, and many I listerd, are basically a wash. When a closer is basically perfect, it is hard to necessarily rank them. If you are talking over a season though, I would emphasize IP, save percentage, and include post season if it applies.

If Ryan's era last year was 1.71 or 1.91, or 2.21 or 2.41, I would say he had an awesome season and was damn near unhittable. Same with whip of .8 or .9 or 1.0. The difference among era/whip is more telling when comparing sp's pitching close to 200ip rather than closers pitching 60-75.

[TrueBlueJay]

you are splitting hairs in terms of era/whip. Anytime it is under 1 that means you allowed less than one runner on base per inning. Pretty much perfect. .7, .8, .9 whatever.

Yes, anything under 1 is great (heck anything under 1.20 is pretty good), but there is a HUGE difference between .7 and .8 and .9
HUGE.

Anything under .9 is significantly harder to do than 1.00
Anything under .8 is just unbelievable.
And well, only 2 relievers with 30+ saves have ever managed anything below .7, so to say "whatever" is not accurate.

Heres some more stats:

There are only 2 pitchers who have put up a 30 save season with a sub 0.70 WHIP:
Eckersley (0.61, twice)and Gagne (0.69)

No one else is even under 0.78.

There are only 3 other players who are under 0.80:
Wagner (0.78), Paplebon (0.78) and Nathan (0.79)

There are only 17 other players who are under 0.90 (BJ Ryan being one of them)

So there are only 29 different players (who combined to do it on 59 seperate occasions) in history who have managed to have a WHIP below 1.00 and 30+ saves. There is a lot of overlap with guys like Eckersley, Hoffman and Rivera putting up multiple seasons of such stats.

Breaking it down even furthur:

player seasons with 30+ saves and WHIP between:
1.00 -> 1.09: 65 seasons
0.90 -> 0.99: 32 seasons
0.80 -> 0.89: 21 seasons
0.70 -> 0.79: 3 seasons
below 0.70: 3 seasons

Its much more impressive to put up a sub 0.80 season than it is to have a sub 1.00 season. There is a HUGE difference.

He certainly had an awesome season, but so did many, many , other pitchers have comparable seasons

I said he had one of the best seasons by a reliever. I was correct, I backed it up by showing he had the 9th lowest ERA and 12th lowest WHIP. Yet you continue to debate me on this point, your main arguement being that many others have had great seasons.

So what? Im not taking anything away from all the great closer seasons in history. I'm merely presenting my opinion, backed up with facts (stats) that prove my point. BJ Ryan had one of the greatest seasons ever by a closer.

I don't know why you keep bringing up examples of some of the other greatest ever seasons as your arguement. You are just giving me arguement more credibility. Yes Nathan's 06 season is one of the greatest ever, So is Eck's 89. So are a bunch of others you've brought up. I've already agreed with you on that! And BJ's 06 stacks up nicely with those seasons as well.

You seem to be treating this as if I said BJ Ryan is the greatest closer of all time, or that he put up the greatest season of all time.

I'm not.

I said its one of the best seasons by a closer. And it is. The stats prove it.

Eck 89:
57ip, 55k, 33sv, 1.56, .60

Eck 92:
80ip, 93k, 51sv, 1.91, .91(won mvp/cy young in the year with the higher era/whip)

Street 05:
78ip, 72k, 23sv, 1.72, 1.00

Cordero 05:
74ip 61k, 47sv, 1.82, .96

Nathan 04:
72ip, 89k, 44sv, 1.62, .98

Nathan 06:
68ip, 95k, 36sv, 1.58, .79

Mike Jackson:
64ip, 55k, 40sv, 1.55, .87

Gagne 02 03 04
Wagner 99 03 05
Basically any rivera season.

In conclusion, almost every season at least one person has a comparable year to Ryan in 06.

You listed some seasons that I already had ranked AHEAD of Ryan. Mariano Rivera has never had a better season than BJ Ryan's 06 season. He has one season that is almost identical (2005) but its not better. Wagner has 2 seasons that were statistically better (see my list), and Gagne has 1 season that is statistically superior (see my list).

Mike Jackson's is pretty close, but not better. Joe Nathan's 06 I already ranked better. Chad Cordero's is not better. His WHIP is almost 1.00, while Ryan's is far far lower. Street's 04 and Nathan's 05 are very nice seasons, but they arent as good as BJ's 06. Eck had a better season in 89 and 90'. But his 1991 season stats are not as good, other than his save total. He has a higher ERA and a higher WHIP. He also pitched against overall worse hitters back then.
You're arguement about him winning the CY is silly. Just because he was voted the best pitcher one year, doesnt mean he's better than another pitcher in another year.


I've proven my original point multiple times. Everyone else can see that. I just spend 15 minutes typing this last post. I'm not going to waste anymore time beating a dead horse with you. You are taking up too much of my time by trying to argue something that doesnt make sense in regards to my original point.

End of story.

[gojays2007]

but there is a HUGE difference between .7 and .8 and .9
HUGE.

Wrong, especially over 60-75ip. How many more baserunners reach base over 70 ip for someone with a .8 whip as opposed to a .7 whip?

Mariano Rivera has never had a better season than BJ Ryan's 06 season.

Wow, that statement alone is quite telling. Just wow. Also, you must have missed his career .80era for the postseason and four rings.

Again, your weight of era/whip is too much.
Why no mention of save percentage?
Why 30 plus save seasons, why not 40 plus save seasons, why not 50 plust save seasons???

Would it be because Ryan wouldn't appear as high on those filters?

[TrueBlueJay]

I'll answer this one last one because it is short(er), and your statements are easily rebuttable.

Wrong, especially over 60-75ip. How many more baserunners reach base over 70 ip for someone with a .8 whip as opposed to a .7 whip?

You said that there isnt much difference between .7, .8 and .9.

How many people have achieved a sub .7 WHIP? TWO.

Read my last post again...now how many have achieved a sub .9? sub 1.00?

Much, MUCH harder to do.

Do you have any concept on just how hard it is to have a WHIP that low? Allowing ONE extra batter to reach base makes a difference in your WHIP on the season. So you have to respect those that managed the .85 WHIPs more than the 1.00 WHIPs. Its that much more impressive.

Wow, that statement alone is quite telling. Just wow. Also, you must have missed his career .80era for the postseason and four rings.

Might want to get that brain checked. We're talking about regular seasons, not post seasons. LOL

Why 30 plus save seasons, why not 40 plus save seasons, why not 50 plust save seasons??? Would it be because Ryan wouldn't appear as high on those filters?

I already explained in my last post that saves are underrated because they depend on the team putting you in that situation. Saves is not a good indicator of a pitchers ability. But then again, after reading your posts throughout this thread, I'm not surprised that you would think it is. The fact that you think saves is as important as WHIP and ERA shows you don't properly understand which stats are more important.

30+ saves was my cutoff because most closers are able to get 30 saves over a full season of closing, no matter how bad they pitch (e.g. - Batista)

I guess I could have chosen 20 saves. The point was to limit it to closers.

40+ or 50+ saves would be ridiculous. That would eliminate a large number of pitchers' seasons for unfair reasons. But again, as I mentioned earlier I wouldnt expect you to understand why.

And now we're finished. I refuse to debate with someone who doesnt understand what he's debating about.

I'm confident that anyone else who reads this entire thread will understand what I've been trying to say.

[gojays2007]

laughable.

Giving up .1 more baserunner per ip is giving up 1 full baserunner for every 10 innings pitched so roughly 7 more baserunners over a 70ip season. About one more baserunner a month. I wouldn't expect you to understand the difference though.

Might want to get that brain checked. We're talking about regular seasons, not post seasons. LOL


LOL right back atcha, you didn't specify, you said season. If you had a dynamite reg season and pulled a Lidge in the playoffs, I would factor that into your "season", but again, we are going with your criteria so be it.

So you have to respect those that managed the .85 WHIPs more than the 1.00 WHIPs. Its that much more impressive.

Actually it is splitting hairs, both pitchers were dominating. What if you were asked to intentionally walk a batter more often than the other guy, guess you are screwed. What if you got more garbage called ball 4's over the season, sucks to be you. Have a bonehead 3bman trip over his feet and miss an easy popup in foul territory for out number 3, then the batter reaches, still effects your whip as there is no "earned" whip like era. Have a bad ruling by an ump and call a play a hit instead of an error more often than the other guy, there goes your whip edge. Have 2 fielders call a pop up and then neither catches it for a hit, oh my god, there is a hit, kiss that .7whip good bye, now you are saddled with a .8whip. 60-70ip is a very small sample.

The point was to limit it to closers.

Thanks for finally announcing that after saying relievers several times and asking for clarification.


Incorrect about your save percentage. If you allow the runner on base to score, that does not effect your 1.50 era.
38svs? Out of 38 awesome, out of 44, pedestrian.

Your method would rather have the guy that went 36/45 in save opps with a 1.87era and .85 whip over a guy who went 50/50 saves with a 2.25era and 1.00 cuz saves are so team dependent.


Come in top of 9 and with a guy on 1st and allow a triple to lose the lead, oh well, no harm done on your scale, still a 1 whip and no penalty for the blown save.

I wouldn't expect you to understand any of this though as you clearly need to "get your brain checked"

[TrueBlueJay]

Come in top of 9 and with a guy on 1st and allow a triple to lose the lead, oh well, no harm done on your scale, still a 1 whip and no penalty for the blown save.

No harm done on your scale? I believe that would make your WHIP rise would it not? Wasn't it me who said that WHIP was the most important stat? How does this tie into whether or not BJ Ryan had one of the greatest seasons by a reliever? That is what you are trying to argue, isn't it?

Well? Did BJ Ryan blow a boatload of saves without it affecting his ERA? Does his WHIP reflect a pitcher who isnt a great closer?

Game, set, and match.