Team Spotlight: Toronto Blue Jays

Heltonfan · 11-29-2007, 01:45 PM

J.P. Ricciardi has produced more than his share of head-scratchers over the next two years. The Glaus/Hudson/Batista deal of two winters ago comes to mind. And the contract extension he gave to Vernon Wells was simply inexcusable. But Ricciardi has done some great things as well. The initially much-maligned contracts he gave to A.J. Burnett and B.J. Ryan now look quite reasonable, with the explosion of the free agent market. And were you aware that Roy Halladay is only making $40 million over the next three years? That extension was an absolute steal for the Jays.

If they were in the NL, the Blue Jays would be favored to win the pennant. As is, they’re stuck in an impossible division, which, with the Rays finally projecting to actually win some games, isn’t getting any easier. Is there any way for this team to compete with the big boys? Let’s find out.

Summary Statistics
Rotation: +10
Bullpen: +14
Lineup: +6
Bench: +3
Defense: -4
W-L record: 84-78

Rotation

Halladay 3.12
Burnett 3.62
McGowan 3.85
Marcum 4.64
Litsch 4.84

Dustin McGowan was rated as the Jays’ #1 prospect a few years ago. With a 3.23 FIP this year in 191 innings, he has arrived. He might very well smash that projection. Halladay-Burnett-McGowan could be the best top 3 in all of baseball.

The Jays also have Josh Towers, who projects identically to Litsch. But they could certainly use a quality #4.

Bullpen

Accardo 3.19
Frasor 3.52
Downs 3.67
Janssen 3.48
League 3.84
Tallet 4.07
Ryan 2.23

Impressive, isn’t it? Ryan is listed at the bottom because we don’t know how many innings they’ll get out of him, or whether he’ll actually return to his old form (the projections, of course, don’t know why he missed 2007, they just know that he did). Anyway, though, a healthy Ryan is as good as any reliever in the league.

Lineup

C: Zaun 1.21 (.251, -5)
1B: Overbay 1.21 (.266, -1)
2B: Hill 3.07 (.267, 7)
SS: Scutaro 1.41 (.246, -2)
3B: Glaus 2.62 (.283, -7)
LF: Stairs 1.65 (.274, -6)
CF: Wells 2.54 (.266, 0)
RF: Rios 3.38 (.287, 2)
DH: Thomas 2.44 (.289)

Wells was reportedly playing hurt this year, which would explain his hugely disappointing performance (.244 ABR). I don’t think that makes the projection wrong, though. We don’t know that he’ll be healthy in 2008, nor do we know how much the injury actually affected him.

I’m giving the Jays the benefit of the doubt here by listing the recently acquired Scutaro ahead of John McDonald on the depth chart. McDonald is a -1 WAR player, who has no business being anything more than a defensive replacement.

Bench

Thigpen .234
McDonald .194
Lind .262
Johnson .236

If I Were in Charge, I Would: There’s really not much that can be done here. They’ve already taken care of their most pressing offensive need by acquiring Scutaro. The bullpen is in fine shape as is. And none of the available free agent starting pitchers would be enough of an upgrade to warrant a seven-figure-a-year expenditure.

I’d listen to offers for Burnett (who can opt out of his contract after 2008, and, if he has a solid season, will certainly do so), and maybe make a run at Fukudome. But regardless of what they do, they’ll need some luck in order to finish higher than third.

11-29-2007, 01:45 PM	#1 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 847	Team Spotlight: Toronto Blue Jays J.P. Ricciardi has produced more than his share of head-scratchers over the next two years. The Glaus/Hudson/Batista deal of two winters ago comes to mind. And the contract extension he gave to Vernon Wells was simply inexcusable. But Ricciardi has done some great things as well. The initially much-maligned contracts he gave to A.J. Burnett and B.J. Ryan now look quite reasonable, with the explosion of the free agent market. And were you aware that Roy Halladay is only making $40 million over the next three years? That extension was an absolute steal for the Jays. If they were in the NL, the Blue Jays would be favored to win the pennant. As is, they’re stuck in an impossible division, which, with the Rays finally projecting to actually win some games, isn’t getting any easier. Is there any way for this team to compete with the big boys? Let’s find out. Summary Statistics Rotation: +10 Bullpen: +14 Lineup: +6 Bench: +3 Defense: -4 W-L record: 84-78 Rotation Halladay 3.12 Burnett 3.62 McGowan 3.85 Marcum 4.64 Litsch 4.84 Dustin McGowan was rated as the Jays’ #1 prospect a few years ago. With a 3.23 FIP this year in 191 innings, he has arrived. He might very well smash that projection. Halladay-Burnett-McGowan could be the best top 3 in all of baseball. The Jays also have Josh Towers, who projects identically to Litsch. But they could certainly use a quality #4. Bullpen Accardo 3.19 Frasor 3.52 Downs 3.67 Janssen 3.48 League 3.84 Tallet 4.07 Ryan 2.23 Impressive, isn’t it? Ryan is listed at the bottom because we don’t know how many innings they’ll get out of him, or whether he’ll actually return to his old form (the projections, of course, don’t know why he missed 2007, they just know that he did). Anyway, though, a healthy Ryan is as good as any reliever in the league. Lineup C: Zaun 1.21 (.251, -5) 1B: Overbay 1.21 (.266, -1) 2B: Hill 3.07 (.267, 7) SS: Scutaro 1.41 (.246, -2) 3B: Glaus 2.62 (.283, -7) LF: Stairs 1.65 (.274, -6) CF: Wells 2.54 (.266, 0) RF: Rios 3.38 (.287, 2) DH: Thomas 2.44 (.289) Wells was reportedly playing hurt this year, which would explain his hugely disappointing performance (.244 ABR). I don’t think that makes the projection wrong, though. We don’t know that he’ll be healthy in 2008, nor do we know how much the injury actually affected him. I’m giving the Jays the benefit of the doubt here by listing the recently acquired Scutaro ahead of John McDonald on the depth chart. McDonald is a -1 WAR player, who has no business being anything more than a defensive replacement. Bench Thigpen .234 McDonald .194 Lind .262 Johnson .236 If I Were in Charge, I Would: There’s really not much that can be done here. They’ve already taken care of their most pressing offensive need by acquiring Scutaro. The bullpen is in fine shape as is. And none of the available free agent starting pitchers would be enough of an upgrade to warrant a seven-figure-a-year expenditure. I’d listen to offers for Burnett (who can opt out of his contract after 2008, and, if he has a solid season, will certainly do so), and maybe make a run at Fukudome. But regardless of what they do, they’ll need some luck in order to finish higher than third.