Team Spotlight: Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Heltonfan · 11-03-2007, 08:29 AM

This is something I hope to make a regular feature on this thread, team-by-team overviews. I don't know if I'll be able to keep this up long enough to do all 30 teams, so for now, I'll just start by doing teams that I find interesting. And the Devil Rays are as interesting as they come.

Summary Statistics (projected Runs Above Average, or RAA)
Rotation: -6
Bullpen: -20
Lineup: +51
Bench: +12
Defense: -4
W-L record: 85-77

I'm surprised that none of you guys have questioned my projecting the Rays to finish over .500. But this is a very good team, and with a little work, it can be made into a great one. Let's go through the roster:

Rotation (with projected ERCs)

Kazmir 3.15
Shields 3.74
Howell 4.49
Hammel 4.68
Sonnanstine 4.69

A Devil Rays team with no truly awful starting pitchers? It's unheard of. They've got more pitching depth now than they've ever had before; and this front five is just the tip of the iceberg. Edwin Jackson, Jacob McGee, Wade Davis, and Jeff Niemann all project right around replacement level for '08, and they've all got the potential to be much more than that. Not to mention David Price, the #1 pick in the '07 draft (for whom I don't have a projection because he hasn't pitched professionally yet... but based on his college stats, he's probably in the same range as the other youngsters mentioned here).

And of course, it's not just that they've got depth; Kazmir-Shields is a terrific 1-2 punch.

Bullpen

Wheeler 3.63
Reyes 4.01
Switzer 4.05
Dohmann 4.36
Orvella 4.41
Medlock 4.61
Balfour 3.21

I list Grant Balfour at the bottom because his projection is based on only 65 innings of data; I doubt he's really that good (I adjust for this in the team projections by giving him fewer innings). Anyway, this is a brutal bullpen, maybe the league's worst (Baltimore is up there as well, along with the now Zumaya-less Tigers). I don't think this requires any further explanation; these guys just stink.

Lineup (numbers given are projected WAR, and then ABR and defense runs in parentheses)
C: Navarro 0.98 (.240, -1)
1B: Pena 3.22 (.304, -4)
2B: Iwamura 3.03 (.278, -2)
SS: Harris 0.81 (.255, -14)
3B: Longoria 2.02 (.266, 0)
LF: Crawford 4.68 (.301, 8)
CF: Upton 3.67 (.295, -5)
RF: Young 2.12 (.269, 3)
DH: Gomes 1.79 (.279)

That's a tremendous collection of talent. Crawford is a star. Upton is on his way to becoming one. Pena won't repeat what he did this year, but he's still probably the best offensive first baseman in the AL. Longoria is big-league ready. They do have to do something about the outfield logjam, though. I'll address that later.

Bench
Riggans .235
Norton .253
Baldelli .270
Snelling .255
Ruggiano .265

Baldelli projects at 3.00 WAR as an everyday player; he's far too good to be left on the bench. And he won't be; they're bound to do something. Justin Ruggiano is a favorite sleeper prospect of mine, an outfielder who has done nothing but rake in the minors (.309/.378/.502 at AAA Durham this year). He gives the Rays a total of five outfielders who could play every day without embarrassing themselves... and Snelling could very well be a sixth.

If I Were in Charge, I Would: Spend. A lot. This is a team that went through the '07 season with a payroll around $25 million - they could double that, and still be $40-50 million below average. Because of the tremendous value that they're getting out of Kazmir, Shields, Crawford, Upton, Longoria, etc., they can afford to pay market value for free agents. And after all, if they want to be a viable franchise in the long term, they're going to have to up the payroll at some point... why not now?

They've got obvious holes at C, SS, and in the bullpen, and they could use a league-averageish innings eater. They ought to be able to land one of Rivera/Cordero/Gagne, and they should be a serious contender for Hitoki Iwase as well. It wouldn't hurt to bring in a couple Julio/Hawkins/Romero types, just to ensure that they won't be giving any significant innings to the Brian Stokeses of the world.

I'd avoid the free agent starting pitching market, with the possible exception of Kuroda; the guys available are average pitchers at best, who might turn out not to be any kind of upgrade over what the Rays already have. And we know that they'll be hideously expensive.

The catching issue is simple: make a run at Posada. I'm seeing 3/40 bandied about for him; the Rays should be willing to go to 3/50, and I'll bet that would get it done. If not, go after Ramon Castro, and hope that Navarro develops enough to relegate Castro to backup status by July.

SS is weak, and will remain so; there just aren't any viable options out there. I've played around with the idea of the Rays going after A-Rod... it makes some sense, in that it would bring life to the brand name, but ultimately, I can't justify spending $300 million on him.

Beyond that, we're into trade possibilities. Two ideas:

1) Ringolsby says that the Giants have let it be known that Lincecum can be had for a "quality bat." If this is true - and knowing Brian Sabean, it very well might be - I'd see if they'd accept Carlos Pena. It's a completely ridiculous trade... Pena turns 30 next year, and Lincecum is already projecting as the second-best pitcher in baseball... but hell, it's worth a shot. I'd happily throw in one from the Niemann/McGee/Davis group to make it happen; Lincecum's probably the single most valuable property in the game today, a true ace who's six years away from free agency. I'm going to refrain from Lincecum trade suggestions in future team spotlights; just take it as a given that there isn't a team out there who shouldn't be trying to take Sabean to the cleaners if at all possible.

2) Trade Delmon Young for a pitcher. I think a Delmon trade is the best way to solve the outfield logjam; Crawford and Upton are too good to trade, and Baldelli's value is at an all-time low right now, so that leaves us with only one option. And Delmon has hardly improved at all over the past two years; for all his potential, he's a hacker who isn't likely to remain a defensive asset for much longer. There's a real chance that he never develops into more than an average player. Using my projections, which see him taking significant steps forward, he's expected to produce an average of 2.53 WAR over the next five years. That's awfully valuable, to be sure... but it's far from irreplaceable.

Obviously, though, the trick is figuring out what pitcher to target. It ought to be someone under contract fairly cheaply for at least 3-4 years, because the Rays have to think long-term... and I just don't know how valuable other teams think Delmon is. I'm guessing that King Felix is out of the question here (as he should be). Ditto Cole Hamels. But Yovani Gallardo might be obtainable. Of course, the problem is that once you get past those guys, there's hardly anyone else out there who would be a sufficient return for Delmon. Chris Young, maybe.

Alternatively, they could go for a lesser pitcher and try to shore up SS. The Twins desperately need outfield help, and Delmon is the kind of toolsy player I'm sure they'd love to have. Delmon for Jason Bartlett and one of Slowey/Baker/Garza might work.

And, just to close with the craziest idea of all... if the Rays want to win 95 games this year, there's a way for them to do it. Make Delmon the centerpiece of a Santana deal. It sounds nuts, I know... a team coming off a 96-loss season, acquiring a star player with one year left on his contract?... but, worst-case scenario, if it's clear that they won't make the playoffs, they can cut their losses and deal Johan in July. Best-case scenario, it's the beginning of a dynasty. By all rights, this shouldn't happen, since there are teams out there with more narrow windows of contention who should be willing to outbid the Rays for Johan, but wow, is it ever fun to imagine.

AutomatedTeller · 11-04-2007, 11:09 AM

I have been saying for years that the Rays are a few players away from contention. I don't believe they will get there, and I won't believe they get their until and unless they do something to get themselves there. They are wasting Carl Crawford and Scott Kazmir, cause they don't get the pieces they need.

11-03-2007, 08:29 AM	#1 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 855	Team Spotlight: Tampa Bay Devil Rays This is something I hope to make a regular feature on this thread, team-by-team overviews. I don't know if I'll be able to keep this up long enough to do all 30 teams, so for now, I'll just start by doing teams that I find interesting. And the Devil Rays are as interesting as they come. Summary Statistics (projected Runs Above Average, or RAA) Rotation: -6 Bullpen: -20 Lineup: +51 Bench: +12 Defense: -4 W-L record: 85-77 I'm surprised that none of you guys have questioned my projecting the Rays to finish over .500. But this is a very good team, and with a little work, it can be made into a great one. Let's go through the roster: Rotation (with projected ERCs) Kazmir 3.15 Shields 3.74 Howell 4.49 Hammel 4.68 Sonnanstine 4.69 A Devil Rays team with no truly awful starting pitchers? It's unheard of. They've got more pitching depth now than they've ever had before; and this front five is just the tip of the iceberg. Edwin Jackson, Jacob McGee, Wade Davis, and Jeff Niemann all project right around replacement level for '08, and they've all got the potential to be much more than that. Not to mention David Price, the #1 pick in the '07 draft (for whom I don't have a projection because he hasn't pitched professionally yet... but based on his college stats, he's probably in the same range as the other youngsters mentioned here). And of course, it's not just that they've got depth; Kazmir-Shields is a terrific 1-2 punch. Bullpen Wheeler 3.63 Reyes 4.01 Switzer 4.05 Dohmann 4.36 Orvella 4.41 Medlock 4.61 Balfour 3.21 I list Grant Balfour at the bottom because his projection is based on only 65 innings of data; I doubt he's really that good (I adjust for this in the team projections by giving him fewer innings). Anyway, this is a brutal bullpen, maybe the league's worst (Baltimore is up there as well, along with the now Zumaya-less Tigers). I don't think this requires any further explanation; these guys just stink. Lineup (numbers given are projected WAR, and then ABR and defense runs in parentheses) C: Navarro 0.98 (.240, -1) 1B: Pena 3.22 (.304, -4) 2B: Iwamura 3.03 (.278, -2) SS: Harris 0.81 (.255, -14) 3B: Longoria 2.02 (.266, 0) LF: Crawford 4.68 (.301, 8) CF: Upton 3.67 (.295, -5) RF: Young 2.12 (.269, 3) DH: Gomes 1.79 (.279) That's a tremendous collection of talent. Crawford is a star. Upton is on his way to becoming one. Pena won't repeat what he did this year, but he's still probably the best offensive first baseman in the AL. Longoria is big-league ready. They do have to do something about the outfield logjam, though. I'll address that later. Bench Riggans .235 Norton .253 Baldelli .270 Snelling .255 Ruggiano .265 Baldelli projects at 3.00 WAR as an everyday player; he's far too good to be left on the bench. And he won't be; they're bound to do something. Justin Ruggiano is a favorite sleeper prospect of mine, an outfielder who has done nothing but rake in the minors (.309/.378/.502 at AAA Durham this year). He gives the Rays a total of five outfielders who could play every day without embarrassing themselves... and Snelling could very well be a sixth. If I Were in Charge, I Would: Spend. A lot. This is a team that went through the '07 season with a payroll around $25 million - they could double that, and still be $40-50 million below average. Because of the tremendous value that they're getting out of Kazmir, Shields, Crawford, Upton, Longoria, etc., they can afford to pay market value for free agents. And after all, if they want to be a viable franchise in the long term, they're going to have to up the payroll at some point... why not now? They've got obvious holes at C, SS, and in the bullpen, and they could use a league-averageish innings eater. They ought to be able to land one of Rivera/Cordero/Gagne, and they should be a serious contender for Hitoki Iwase as well. It wouldn't hurt to bring in a couple Julio/Hawkins/Romero types, just to ensure that they won't be giving any significant innings to the Brian Stokeses of the world. I'd avoid the free agent starting pitching market, with the possible exception of Kuroda; the guys available are average pitchers at best, who might turn out not to be any kind of upgrade over what the Rays already have. And we know that they'll be hideously expensive. The catching issue is simple: make a run at Posada. I'm seeing 3/40 bandied about for him; the Rays should be willing to go to 3/50, and I'll bet that would get it done. If not, go after Ramon Castro, and hope that Navarro develops enough to relegate Castro to backup status by July. SS is weak, and will remain so; there just aren't any viable options out there. I've played around with the idea of the Rays going after A-Rod... it makes some sense, in that it would bring life to the brand name, but ultimately, I can't justify spending $300 million on him. Beyond that, we're into trade possibilities. Two ideas: 1) Ringolsby says that the Giants have let it be known that Lincecum can be had for a "quality bat." If this is true - and knowing Brian Sabean, it very well might be - I'd see if they'd accept Carlos Pena. It's a completely ridiculous trade... Pena turns 30 next year, and Lincecum is already projecting as the second-best pitcher in baseball... but hell, it's worth a shot. I'd happily throw in one from the Niemann/McGee/Davis group to make it happen; Lincecum's probably the single most valuable property in the game today, a true ace who's six years away from free agency. I'm going to refrain from Lincecum trade suggestions in future team spotlights; just take it as a given that there isn't a team out there who shouldn't be trying to take Sabean to the cleaners if at all possible. 2) Trade Delmon Young for a pitcher. I think a Delmon trade is the best way to solve the outfield logjam; Crawford and Upton are too good to trade, and Baldelli's value is at an all-time low right now, so that leaves us with only one option. And Delmon has hardly improved at all over the past two years; for all his potential, he's a hacker who isn't likely to remain a defensive asset for much longer. There's a real chance that he never develops into more than an average player. Using my projections, which see him taking significant steps forward, he's expected to produce an average of 2.53 WAR over the next five years. That's awfully valuable, to be sure... but it's far from irreplaceable. Obviously, though, the trick is figuring out what pitcher to target. It ought to be someone under contract fairly cheaply for at least 3-4 years, because the Rays have to think long-term... and I just don't know how valuable other teams think Delmon is. I'm guessing that King Felix is out of the question here (as he should be). Ditto Cole Hamels. But Yovani Gallardo might be obtainable. Of course, the problem is that once you get past those guys, there's hardly anyone else out there who would be a sufficient return for Delmon. Chris Young, maybe. Alternatively, they could go for a lesser pitcher and try to shore up SS. The Twins desperately need outfield help, and Delmon is the kind of toolsy player I'm sure they'd love to have. Delmon for Jason Bartlett and one of Slowey/Baker/Garza might work. And, just to close with the craziest idea of all... if the Rays want to win 95 games this year, there's a way for them to do it. Make Delmon the centerpiece of a Santana deal. It sounds nuts, I know... a team coming off a 96-loss season, acquiring a star player with one year left on his contract?... but, worst-case scenario, if it's clear that they won't make the playoffs, they can cut their losses and deal Johan in July. Best-case scenario, it's the beginning of a dynasty. By all rights, this shouldn't happen, since there are teams out there with more narrow windows of contention who should be willing to outbid the Rays for Johan, but wow, is it ever fun to imagine.

11-04-2007, 11:09 AM	#2 (permalink)
AutomatedTeller Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 545	I have been saying for years that the Rays are a few players away from contention. I don't believe they will get there, and I won't believe they get their until and unless they do something to get themselves there. They are wasting Carl Crawford and Scott Kazmir, cause they don't get the pieces they need.