Baseball: Game Components, W & L

[nanwynnfan]

Sabermetrics has provided fans with as much interprtative data as any avid fan might want and then geometrically added to that a huge body of studies that go further, some useful, some not.

One simple formula is the one used to project team W-L records from the raw numbers of runs scored per game and runs allowed per game. It looks like this:

Example: Team X scores 5 runs per game and gives up 4.6 runs per game.

1. take the runs scored/game squared; 5*5 = 25;

2. take the runs allowed/game squared, 4.6*4.6 = 21.16;

3. add the two numbers; this is the denominator = 25 + 21.16 = 46.16;

4. divide the runs scored squared, 25, by the denominator 46.16;

5. the quotient = .542; and this is the projected W-L percentage. If Team X has played 76 games, then .542*76 = 41.16 Wins, rounded to 41 and 35 losses.

There are formulas for estimating batting runs created by a player; and there are formulas for isolating pitcher performance by giving him an ERA-like rating [DIPs ERA; FIP] which factors in ONLY events NOT involving fielders: HR, BB, K. There are formulas for evaluating defense at each position and then converting that into +/- runs saved or lost with the glove.

I thought it might be interesting to look at a small sample of 2007 teams, the NL East and apply the W-L record projection formula from three points of view:

1. raw runs scored and raw runs allowed;

2. raw runs scored and DIPs ERA; FIP, pitching independent of defense;

3. raw runs and DIPs ERA; FIP modified by team aggregate defense runs (DR) spread over the games played;

Not anticipating any neat dovetailing of numbers from hitting, pitching and fielding to make a tidy and precise projection of W-L; but subtleties should show up.

Runs are not adjusted for park factors, simply based on actual runs crossing the plate or given up. The only adjusted numbers are DIPs ERA and DIPs ERA +DR. Just trying to see how credit might be distributed once pitching has been isolated.

Team: NYM, 43-33

Games: 76..........Proj. %......Proj. W.........Proj. L
RS/G: 4.55
RA/G: 4.01...... .562...........43..............33
DIP: 4.10....... .552...........42..............34
DIP+DR 4.35....... .522...........40..............36
DR: -18.77

Team: ATL, 41-38

RS/G: 4.41
RA/G: 4.49....... .491..........39..............40
DIP: 4.01....... .547..........43..............36
DIP+DR: 3.99....... .550..........43..............36
DR: +1.21

Team: PHI, 40-37

RS/G: 5.18
RA/G: 5.22...... .496...........38..............39
DIP: 4.35...... .586...........45..............32
DIP+DR: 4.32...... .590...........45..............32
DR: +1.98

Team, FLA, 36-42

RS/G: 4.81......
RA/G: 5.14...... .467...........36............42
DIP: 4.30..... .556............43.............35
DIP+DR: 4.43..... .541............42.............36
DR: -5.36

Team: WAS, 32-46

RS/G: 3.77
RA/G: 5.08....... .355...........28...........49
DIP: 4.55....... .407...........32...........46
DIP+DR: 4.20....... .446...........35...........43
DR: +27.37

Nothing earth-shattering here; but some subtle dynamics at work; and there's a suggestion that if the NYM have anyone to fear in the division, it's PHI.

WAS defense YTD has been outstanding.

Rather than start a new thread, here's an expansion of above, same formulas, etc. to include the a sampling of some interesting NL Central and NL West teams:

Team: MLW, 46-32

RS/G: 4.88
RA/G: 4.35............... .557..........43-35
DIP: 3.99............... .599..........47-32
DIP+DR: 4.01............... .597..........47-32
DR: -1.24

Team: CHI, 38-39

RS/G: 4.60
RA/G: 4.19.............. .547..........42-35
DIP: 4.21.............. .544..........42-35
DIP+DR: 4.41.............. .521..........40-39
DR: -15.70

Team: CIN, 30-49

RS/G: 4.67
RA/G: 5.25.............. .442..........35-44
DIP: 4.19.............. .554..........44-35
DIP+DR: 4.09.............. .566..........45-34
DR: +7.60

Team: SDP, 44-33

RS/G: 4.39
RA/G: 3.36.............. .631...........49-28
DIP: 3.36.............. .631...........49-28
DIP+DR: 3.10.............. .667...........51-28
DR: +20.07

Team: LAD, 45-34

RS/G: 4.42
RA/G: 4.04.............. .545...........43-36
DIP: 3.47.............. .619...........49-30
DIP+DR: 3.59.............. .603...........48-31
DR: -9.87

Checked the CIN numbers 5 times. I guess the human element, park dynamics and breaks of the game don't always comply with the math. Even a generous park factor doesn't turn things on their heads like this. The pitching staff is fairly stingy with the long ball, has very competitive control, and whiffs more than their share of opposing hiiters; but the rest goes you-know-where in a handbasket.