Some additional teams, linear Runs Created

nanwynnfan · 06-16-2007, 05:03 PM

Since this is an offshoot of the linear weights thread and pursues one element of that thread further, I hope the new thread is justified.

I had posted the Phillies and then was asked to do the Mariners. Here are a few more teams, selected because they are of particular interest to me. On this thread, I'm starting out concentrating on the offensive runs created, using the shortcut method outlined in the former thread.

If anyone wants to pursue the defensive side for these clubs, I'll update that side, too, if there are interested readers.

Team: Mets

Player............TB..........OB%.......Runs Created

Delgado........99........... .293....... 29.01
Easley..........57........... .338....... 19.27
Wright........122........... .375....... 45.75
Reyes.........118........... .393....... 46.37
Alou.............49........... .374....... 18.33
Beltran........109........... .358....... 39.02
Green...........86........... .365....... 31.39
Chavez.........46........... .336....... 15.46
LoDuca.........76........... .348....... 26.45

Team.........925............ .340....... 314.50
Actual Runs............................... 297

Team: Tigers

Casey...........69........... .341....... 23.53
Polanco.......108........... .384....... 41.47
Inge.............92........... .348....... 32.02
Guillen.........111........... .374....... 41.51
Monroe.........97........... .289....... 28.03
Granderson..141........... .343....... 48.36
Ordonez......158........... .440....... 69.52
Sheffield.....134........... .397........ 53.20
Rodriguez....103........... .306........31.52

Team........1122........... .354.......397.19
Actual Runs...............................385

Team: Yankees

Giambi........65............. .380........24.70
Cano........102............. .307........31.31
Rodriguez..164............. .411........67.40
Jeter........116............. .413........47.91
Matsui.......93.............. .382........35.53
Damon.......73.............. .346........25.26
Cabrera......63.............. .320........20.16
Posada.....119.............. .409........48.67
Abreu........93.............. .363........33.76

Team.......988.............. .360.......355.68
Actual Runs...............................360

Team: Indians

Martinez...112.............. .383........42.90
Garko........88.............. .364.........32.03
Sizemore..121.............. .405.........49.01
Peralta....114............... .362........41.27
Blake......117............... .373........43.64
Hafner....102................ .413.......42.13
Nixon.......61................ .330.......20.13
Barfield.....80................ .286.......22.88
Dellucci....67................. .303.......20.30

Team.....1010............... .355.......355.75
Actual Runs................................354

Team: Giants

Klesko........63.............. .405.........25.52
Winn........106.............. .350.........37.10
Molina........95.............. .330.........31.35
Bonds........91.............. .491.........44.68
Feliz..........96.............. .292.........28.03
Durham......78.............. .310.........24.18
Aurilia........66.............. .284.........18.74
Vizquel.......63.............. .284.........17.89
Roberts......40.............. .293.........11/72

Team.......864.............. .319.........275.6
Actual Runs.................................277

Team: Red Sox

Youkilis......126............ .418..........52.67
Pedroia.......69............ .390...........26.91
Lowell.......126............ .373...........47.00
Lugo..........79............. .270..........21.33
Ramirez.....107............ .394...........42.16
Crisp..........65............ .280...........18.20
Drew..........64............ .336...........21.50
Ortiz.........132............ .448..........59.14
Varitek.......81............ .364...........29.48

Team........964............ .356.........343.18
Actual Runs................................328

bedir than average · 06-23-2007, 01:07 PM

No positional adjustment in this one, huh?

How do you value the DH in a positional adjustment context? Personally I see no reason to deduct their offense, but some seem to do so.

nanwynnfan · 06-23-2007, 03:55 PM

If a DH is purely that, his defense rating = 0.00. He is defense neutral, which, to me is only fair for these reasons:

1. his DH position is official by League rules; and while he performs that function, he does not play defense, commits no errors, mental or otherwise, and costs his team nothing;

2. if, by his own request or the desire of the team for him to keep a hand in at a position he's played, his innings at any position can be weighed into the position total to get a composite picture, including defense, not matter how minimal:

Example: Say David Ortiz is calculated at season end to have batting runs created based on 305 TB and a .425 OB%. That would give us 305 * .425 = 129.63 offensive runs created.

If the Red Sox played 1,456 innings on defense; and if David Ortiz played 158.33 innings @ a rating [mine] of .925 vs a League 1B average of .935, then I would arrive at a defense rate of -2.27 defense runs. However, the impact of that play is only 158.33 of 1,456 innings, or 10.87% of the total. His net defense rating would then be:

-2.27 defense runs * .1087 = -.247 = -.25 defense runs.

My season net value for Ortiz, offense and defense weighed in would be:

129.63 - .25 = 129.38 net total runs contributed.

I particularly like this approach because it [IMO] gives a realistic value to guys like Ichiro who contribute both ways, if less dramatically on the offensive side, and can unveil a better appreciation of a great glove man who can't hit a lick, yet manages to stick and contribute often in key situations.
[I'm thinking Pokey Reese, 2B, SS, Red Sox, post Nomar's departure].

06-16-2007, 05:03 PM	#1 (permalink)
nanwynnfan Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 2,579	Some additional teams, linear Runs Created Since this is an offshoot of the linear weights thread and pursues one element of that thread further, I hope the new thread is justified. I had posted the Phillies and then was asked to do the Mariners. Here are a few more teams, selected because they are of particular interest to me. On this thread, I'm starting out concentrating on the offensive runs created, using the shortcut method outlined in the former thread. If anyone wants to pursue the defensive side for these clubs, I'll update that side, too, if there are interested readers. Team: Mets Player............TB..........OB%.......Runs Created Delgado........99........... .293....... 29.01 Easley..........57........... .338....... 19.27 Wright........122........... .375....... 45.75 Reyes.........118........... .393....... 46.37 Alou.............49........... .374....... 18.33 Beltran........109........... .358....... 39.02 Green...........86........... .365....... 31.39 Chavez.........46........... .336....... 15.46 LoDuca.........76........... .348....... 26.45 Team.........925............ .340....... 314.50 Actual Runs............................... 297 Team: Tigers Casey...........69........... .341....... 23.53 Polanco.......108........... .384....... 41.47 Inge.............92........... .348....... 32.02 Guillen.........111........... .374....... 41.51 Monroe.........97........... .289....... 28.03 Granderson..141........... .343....... 48.36 Ordonez......158........... .440....... 69.52 Sheffield.....134........... .397........ 53.20 Rodriguez....103........... .306........31.52 Team........1122........... .354.......397.19 Actual Runs...............................385 Team: Yankees Giambi........65............. .380........24.70 Cano........102............. .307........31.31 Rodriguez..164............. .411........67.40 Jeter........116............. .413........47.91 Matsui.......93.............. .382........35.53 Damon.......73.............. .346........25.26 Cabrera......63.............. .320........20.16 Posada.....119.............. .409........48.67 Abreu........93.............. .363........33.76 Team.......988.............. .360.......355.68 Actual Runs...............................360 Team: Indians Martinez...112.............. .383........42.90 Garko........88.............. .364.........32.03 Sizemore..121.............. .405.........49.01 Peralta....114............... .362........41.27 Blake......117............... .373........43.64 Hafner....102................ .413.......42.13 Nixon.......61................ .330.......20.13 Barfield.....80................ .286.......22.88 Dellucci....67................. .303.......20.30 Team.....1010............... .355.......355.75 Actual Runs................................354 Team: Giants Klesko........63.............. .405.........25.52 Winn........106.............. .350.........37.10 Molina........95.............. .330.........31.35 Bonds........91.............. .491.........44.68 Feliz..........96.............. .292.........28.03 Durham......78.............. .310.........24.18 Aurilia........66.............. .284.........18.74 Vizquel.......63.............. .284.........17.89 Roberts......40.............. .293.........11/72 Team.......864.............. .319.........275.6 Actual Runs.................................277 Team: Red Sox Youkilis......126............ .418..........52.67 Pedroia.......69............ .390...........26.91 Lowell.......126............ .373...........47.00 Lugo..........79............. .270..........21.33 Ramirez.....107............ .394...........42.16 Crisp..........65............ .280...........18.20 Drew..........64............ .336...........21.50 Ortiz.........132............ .448..........59.14 Varitek.......81............ .364...........29.48 Team........964............ .356.........343.18 Actual Runs................................328

06-23-2007, 01:07 PM	#2 (permalink)
bedir than average Administrator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Starbucks Posts: 8,256	No positional adjustment in this one, huh? How do you value the DH in a positional adjustment context? Personally I see no reason to deduct their offense, but some seem to do so. __________________ US Men's National Team World Cup Qualifying \| Democracy in Sports Meets My First Campaign "You're only so sure you're right because they're so sure you're wrong." Orson Scott Card in Xenocide

06-23-2007, 03:55 PM	#3 (permalink)
nanwynnfan Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 2,579	If a DH is purely that, his defense rating = 0.00. He is defense neutral, which, to me is only fair for these reasons: 1. his DH position is official by League rules; and while he performs that function, he does not play defense, commits no errors, mental or otherwise, and costs his team nothing; 2. if, by his own request or the desire of the team for him to keep a hand in at a position he's played, his innings at any position can be weighed into the position total to get a composite picture, including defense, not matter how minimal: Example: Say David Ortiz is calculated at season end to have batting runs created based on 305 TB and a .425 OB%. That would give us 305 * .425 = 129.63 offensive runs created. If the Red Sox played 1,456 innings on defense; and if David Ortiz played 158.33 innings @ a rating [mine] of .925 vs a League 1B average of .935, then I would arrive at a defense rate of -2.27 defense runs. However, the impact of that play is only 158.33 of 1,456 innings, or 10.87% of the total. His net defense rating would then be: -2.27 defense runs * .1087 = -.247 = -.25 defense runs. My season net value for Ortiz, offense and defense weighed in would be: 129.63 - .25 = 129.38 net total runs contributed. I particularly like this approach because it [IMO] gives a realistic value to guys like Ichiro who contribute both ways, if less dramatically on the offensive side, and can unveil a better appreciation of a great glove man who can't hit a lick, yet manages to stick and contribute often in key situations. [I'm thinking Pokey Reese, 2B, SS, Red Sox, post Nomar's departure].