Defense Ratings, 2007 YTD: Catchers

nanwynnfan · 06-09-2007, 12:02 PM

As we approach mid-season (wow, so fast???), I started to set up my worksheets for defense evaluations, 2007 year-to-date. Because some of the inputs are time-consuming, I figured I'd do catchers separately, then follow with the other positions, also individually or on groups (infield), (outfield) depending on time constraints.

The ratings are not to be confused with fielding %, but the familiarity of that statistic makes the ratings (I hope) user friendly. The defense runs are derived from a formula which equates the "rating" for each player from the standard being applied. That standard is .924, which is the catching average for both leagues combined.

Year-to-date, catching has been a defensive weak spot in the AL, where the average is around .913. Over the last 10 seasons or so, the MLB average has been around .930-.935. The NL fares better on average, coming in around .932.

The Games column is based on innings played. To put defense runs into a practical context, teams had played an average of 59 games when these numbers were compiled, so Jorge Posada's approximate 46 games = 78% of the Yankee catching time. His runs-on-rating would be pro rated to -11.28*.78 = -8.80 defense runs.

2007

Player Team Position Games Rating Runs Saved

Posada, Jorge NYY C 46 0.896 -11.28
Kendall, Jason OAK C 52 0.911 -5.44
Navarro, Dioner TBD C 40 0.950 10.73
Martinez, Victo CLE C 40 0.920 -1.79
Johima, Kenji SEA C 43 0.928 1.54
Hernandez, Ramon BAL C 32 0.899 -10.15
Laird, Gerald TEX C 47 0.911 -5.49
Varitek, Jason BSX C 43 0.875 -20.11
Rodriguez, Ivan DET C 45 0.910 -5.55
Pierzynski, A.J CSX C 45 0.900 -9.89
Redmond, Mike MNT C 29 0.974 20.62
Napoli, Mike LAA C 39 0.897 -11.13
Phillips, Jason TOR C 31 0.893 -12.87
Buck, John KCR C 39 0.892 -13.25
Ausmus, Brad HOU C 44 0.947 9.22
McCann, Brian ATL C 45 0.906 -7.23
Estrada, Johnny MLW C 45 0.905 -7.87
Molina, Yadier STL C 36 0.986 25.25
Barrett, Michael CHI C 46 0.877 -19.29
Martin, Russell LAD C 53 0.947 9.47
Molina, Bengie SFG C 49 0.907 -6.88
Olivo, Miguel FLA C 49 0.910 -5.80
LoDuca, Paul NYM C 45 0.934 4.04
Ruiz, Carlos PHI C 39 0.957 13.35
Paulino, Pauly PGH C 46 0.954 12.14
Ross, David CIN C 42 0.959 14.18
Torrealba, Yorvit COL C 30 .996 29.42
Snyder, Chris AZD C 35 0.939 5.93
Schneider, Chris WAS C 48 0.935 4.36
Bard, Josh SDP C 37 0.913 -4.60

jtur88 · 06-09-2007, 08:53 PM

Perhaps this is shown in another post at another time, and I should know it, but I was wondering how your ratings deal with WP/PB? Pesonally, I think the statistic of Wild Pitch ought to be abolished, with modern thinking along the lines that a catcher ought to block everything, and the truly "wild" plitch (into the press box) is exceedingly rare. Further, the ability to keep runners from advancing on a troublesome pitch is perhaps the primary evaluator (nowadays) of a catcher's defensive contribution.

nanwynnfan · 06-10-2007, 12:43 AM

I had to play Devil's Advocate with myself in arriving at consistency in catcher ratings, since my entire study covers defense at all position except pitchers, from 1901 through the present.

Starting with 1901 data and going largely by trial and error at first, I did the following:

1. since catchers' caught stealing and stolen bases records defensively were non-existent, I turned to assists, double plays, errors, passed balls and wild pitches;

2. with trial and retrial done through 1921 I found that the number weighting and inputs themselves gave great hints into the "unknowns" by reviewing over again the patterns of sacrifice bunts, catcher assists, catcher double plays, etc.;

3. passed balls, I opted to add them to errors as a composite negative against the catcher, based on the basic observation that plate blocking is indeed critical to the cather's function and wild pitches DO charge pitchers with a fair measure of balls that get by;

4. I used the same approach in estimating catcher caught-stealing rates, weighing into the equations the fact that some bases are stolen on inattentive pitchers, pitchers with poor moves to first, pitchers slow in their delivery, or pitchers that throw "junk;"

Since the late 1960s the CS % is a known. I still add PB+E as a negative charge in catcher ratings.

06-09-2007, 12:02 PM	#1 (permalink)
nanwynnfan Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 2,579	Defense Ratings, 2007 YTD: Catchers As we approach mid-season (wow, so fast???), I started to set up my worksheets for defense evaluations, 2007 year-to-date. Because some of the inputs are time-consuming, I figured I'd do catchers separately, then follow with the other positions, also individually or on groups (infield), (outfield) depending on time constraints. The ratings are not to be confused with fielding %, but the familiarity of that statistic makes the ratings (I hope) user friendly. The defense runs are derived from a formula which equates the "rating" for each player from the standard being applied. That standard is .924, which is the catching average for both leagues combined. Year-to-date, catching has been a defensive weak spot in the AL, where the average is around .913. Over the last 10 seasons or so, the MLB average has been around .930-.935. The NL fares better on average, coming in around .932. The Games column is based on innings played. To put defense runs into a practical context, teams had played an average of 59 games when these numbers were compiled, so Jorge Posada's approximate 46 games = 78% of the Yankee catching time. His runs-on-rating would be pro rated to -11.28*.78 = -8.80 defense runs. 2007 Player Team Position Games Rating Runs Saved Posada, Jorge NYY C 46 0.896 -11.28 Kendall, Jason OAK C 52 0.911 -5.44 Navarro, Dioner TBD C 40 0.950 10.73 Martinez, Victo CLE C 40 0.920 -1.79 Johima, Kenji SEA C 43 0.928 1.54 Hernandez, Ramon BAL C 32 0.899 -10.15 Laird, Gerald TEX C 47 0.911 -5.49 Varitek, Jason BSX C 43 0.875 -20.11 Rodriguez, Ivan DET C 45 0.910 -5.55 Pierzynski, A.J CSX C 45 0.900 -9.89 Redmond, Mike MNT C 29 0.974 20.62 Napoli, Mike LAA C 39 0.897 -11.13 Phillips, Jason TOR C 31 0.893 -12.87 Buck, John KCR C 39 0.892 -13.25 Ausmus, Brad HOU C 44 0.947 9.22 McCann, Brian ATL C 45 0.906 -7.23 Estrada, Johnny MLW C 45 0.905 -7.87 Molina, Yadier STL C 36 0.986 25.25 Barrett, Michael CHI C 46 0.877 -19.29 Martin, Russell LAD C 53 0.947 9.47 Molina, Bengie SFG C 49 0.907 -6.88 Olivo, Miguel FLA C 49 0.910 -5.80 LoDuca, Paul NYM C 45 0.934 4.04 Ruiz, Carlos PHI C 39 0.957 13.35 Paulino, Pauly PGH C 46 0.954 12.14 Ross, David CIN C 42 0.959 14.18 Torrealba, Yorvit COL C 30 .996 29.42 Snyder, Chris AZD C 35 0.939 5.93 Schneider, Chris WAS C 48 0.935 4.36 Bard, Josh SDP C 37 0.913 -4.60

06-09-2007, 08:53 PM	#2 (permalink)
jtur88 Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: South Texas Posts: 7,712	Perhaps this is shown in another post at another time, and I should know it, but I was wondering how your ratings deal with WP/PB? Pesonally, I think the statistic of Wild Pitch ought to be abolished, with modern thinking along the lines that a catcher ought to block everything, and the truly "wild" plitch (into the press box) is exceedingly rare. Further, the ability to keep runners from advancing on a troublesome pitch is perhaps the primary evaluator (nowadays) of a catcher's defensive contribution.

06-10-2007, 12:43 AM	#3 (permalink)
nanwynnfan Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 2,579	I had to play Devil's Advocate with myself in arriving at consistency in catcher ratings, since my entire study covers defense at all position except pitchers, from 1901 through the present. Starting with 1901 data and going largely by trial and error at first, I did the following: 1. since catchers' caught stealing and stolen bases records defensively were non-existent, I turned to assists, double plays, errors, passed balls and wild pitches; 2. with trial and retrial done through 1921 I found that the number weighting and inputs themselves gave great hints into the "unknowns" by reviewing over again the patterns of sacrifice bunts, catcher assists, catcher double plays, etc.; 3. passed balls, I opted to add them to errors as a composite negative against the catcher, based on the basic observation that plate blocking is indeed critical to the cather's function and wild pitches DO charge pitchers with a fair measure of balls that get by; 4. I used the same approach in estimating catcher caught-stealing rates, weighing into the equations the fact that some bases are stolen on inattentive pitchers, pitchers with poor moves to first, pitchers slow in their delivery, or pitchers that throw "junk;" Since the late 1960s the CS % is a known. I still add PB+E as a negative charge in catcher ratings.