How often does the best team have the best record?

Triad · 06-20-2008, 10:13 PM

Here's an interesting article from sciencedaily.com I came across...

ScienceDaily (July 31, 2007) — How many games does it take to ensure that the best team in a sports league ends up with the best record? According to a study by a pair of physicists at the Los Alamos national Laboratory in New Mexico, the answer is an astounding 256 games per team in the case of baseball's National League, well beyond the 162 games each team currently plays in the regular season.

According to the physicists' analysis and simulations of league play, there's always at least some chance that a lesser team can prevail in any given game. The randomness of outcomes means that it takes a large number of games to guarantee that the best team accumulates the most wins. Specifically, it requires that the total number of games played in a season should be roughly the cube of the number of teams involved. For the 16 team National League, that means 4096 regular season games altogether and 2744 games for the 14 team American League.

Some fans might prefer things the way they are, with underdogs like the 2003 Florida Marlins having a shot at winning the Word Series. For those who would rather the title only go to the very best team in any given year, a modified schedule could get the job done with many fewer games, according to the physicists.

By adding a preliminary round to the season, and eliminating the weakest teams before regular league play begins, the physicists showed that the best team in the National League would be virtually guaranteed to be among the top two or three teams with the best records, even with a significantly reduced number of games. Although the very best team may not always end up in the lead, a preliminary round or two would at least ensure that the top teams aren't eliminated from the playoffs through simple bad luck.

Although the baseball schedule is far from perfect, according to the new research, author Ben-Naim points out that the relatively large number of games that the teams play each year results in better sorting than occurs in professional football, hockey, and basketball. The National Football League, for example has comparable numbers of teams to Major League Baseball, but plays far fewer games each year, which makes the pro football season outcome much more random.

bedir than average · 06-20-2008, 10:31 PM

Can, you link that up?

I'm intrigued by "entry rounds" there are a few soccer leagues that play two seasons and a playoff at the end. The first season has the top half in the upper league that then qualifies for the playoffs and the second half plays a season with some kind of compensation.

jtur88 · 07-13-2008, 03:40 PM

I doubt if even 4,096 games would "guarantee" the best team at the top. If after 4,095 games the top two teams were tied, that single final game would not assert anything like a "guarantee". I'm assuming that what they are saying is that in a hundreds of 4,096 game simulations, the same team would emerge as the top winner with high regularity, but it would be hard to determine what regularity would be defninitive. Largely, but not entirely, owing to the fact that the differential between the first and second best teams could be highly variable if based on real-life input.

Also, unaccounted for, is the fact that stamina and durability variations from one player to another could result in the better team becoming exhausted earlier in the rigorous 4,096 game schedule.

Triad · 07-15-2008, 06:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtur88

I doubt if even 4,096 games would "guarantee" the best team at the top. If after 4,095 games the top two teams were tied, that single final game would not assert anything like a "guarantee". I'm assuming that what they are saying is that in a hundreds of 4,096 game simulations, the same team would emerge as the top winner with high regularity, but it would be hard to determine what regularity would be defninitive. Largely, but not entirely, owing to the fact that the differential between the first and second best teams could be highly variable if based on real-life input.

Good point. This is probably what happens when you get statisticians like that who don't mix their computations with baseball sense.

06-20-2008, 10:13 PM	#1 (permalink)
Triad Member Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Oregon Posts: 240	How often does the best team have the best record? Here's an interesting article from sciencedaily.com I came across... ScienceDaily (July 31, 2007) — How many games does it take to ensure that the best team in a sports league ends up with the best record? According to a study by a pair of physicists at the Los Alamos national Laboratory in New Mexico, the answer is an astounding 256 games per team in the case of baseball's National League, well beyond the 162 games each team currently plays in the regular season. According to the physicists' analysis and simulations of league play, there's always at least some chance that a lesser team can prevail in any given game. The randomness of outcomes means that it takes a large number of games to guarantee that the best team accumulates the most wins. Specifically, it requires that the total number of games played in a season should be roughly the cube of the number of teams involved. For the 16 team National League, that means 4096 regular season games altogether and 2744 games for the 14 team American League. Some fans might prefer things the way they are, with underdogs like the 2003 Florida Marlins having a shot at winning the Word Series. For those who would rather the title only go to the very best team in any given year, a modified schedule could get the job done with many fewer games, according to the physicists. By adding a preliminary round to the season, and eliminating the weakest teams before regular league play begins, the physicists showed that the best team in the National League would be virtually guaranteed to be among the top two or three teams with the best records, even with a significantly reduced number of games. Although the very best team may not always end up in the lead, a preliminary round or two would at least ensure that the top teams aren't eliminated from the playoffs through simple bad luck. Although the baseball schedule is far from perfect, according to the new research, author Ben-Naim points out that the relatively large number of games that the teams play each year results in better sorting than occurs in professional football, hockey, and basketball. The National Football League, for example has comparable numbers of teams to Major League Baseball, but plays far fewer games each year, which makes the pro football season outcome much more random.

06-20-2008, 10:31 PM	#2 (permalink)
bedir than average Administrator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Starbucks Posts: 8,256	Can, you link that up? I'm intrigued by "entry rounds" there are a few soccer leagues that play two seasons and a playoff at the end. The first season has the top half in the upper league that then qualifies for the playoffs and the second half plays a season with some kind of compensation. __________________ US Men's National Team World Cup Qualifying \| Democracy in Sports Meets My First Campaign "You're only so sure you're right because they're so sure you're wrong." Orson Scott Card in Xenocide

07-13-2008, 03:40 PM	#3 (permalink)
jtur88 Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: South Texas Posts: 7,716	I doubt if even 4,096 games would "guarantee" the best team at the top. If after 4,095 games the top two teams were tied, that single final game would not assert anything like a "guarantee". I'm assuming that what they are saying is that in a hundreds of 4,096 game simulations, the same team would emerge as the top winner with high regularity, but it would be hard to determine what regularity would be defninitive. Largely, but not entirely, owing to the fact that the differential between the first and second best teams could be highly variable if based on real-life input. Also, unaccounted for, is the fact that stamina and durability variations from one player to another could result in the better team becoming exhausted earlier in the rigorous 4,096 game schedule. __________________ ------------------ When people ask what I hope to see before I die, I answer that I've already seen too much. Last edited by jtur88; 07-13-2008 at 03:45 PM.