Balanced Lineups and Dependence on Power

[bedir than average]

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...ineup-balance/

The Detroit Tigers were supposed to win the World Series because of their balanced lineup. They lost in five because … was it because of it?

Lineup construction is a tricky issue, one we knew surprisingly little about prior to the publication of The Book. Authors Andy Dolphin, Mitchel Lichtman, and Tom Tango gave the issue a thorough treatment, but they only looked at it from a manager’s perspective. The Book tells us how to construct a batting order, but it does not stop to ask (nor should it, given the narrow subject matter of the tome): How might lineup balance, not order, impact a team’s ability to score.

For me the real nugget is at the end when Gassko says the following...

For 95% of all teams, then, given both these parameters, their dependency on home runs will have an effect no greater than 12 runs overall, or one win. So there is some benefit in teams cutting down their reliance on home runs in the regular season, about half-a-win for going from average to near the bottom of the pile.

BUT

If an average teams jumped to the 68th percentile in terms of its reliance on home runs, it would increase its postseason winning percentage by .037 points (or six wins per 162 games). That is a huge effect. It would most certainly behoove playoff contenders to build up their power.

Amazing.