What I'd Like to See This September

[BrotherBri]

Bleacher already asked the big question -- who do you think will get the call-ups -- but I'd like to make my annual trek into complete foolishness and shine the bright spotlight of my psychic energies onto what are the worst blind spots of this regime. And for this, may you all forgive me.

At this time last year, things looked hopeless. The complete refusal of the medical staff to overrule TLR's insistence on veterans playing hurt -- or the refusal of the veterans to "let Tony down" by declining to play in order to get surgery on otherwise irreperable damage -- left us with Mulder and Izzy blowing games left and right. Only the complete destruction of both allowed the team to get past TLR's blind spot and, with TJ, Kinney and Adam emerging, become what it could.

This year, I see four primary blind spots holding us back -- 1. the refusal to recognize that a hamstring-hampered Pujols needs to hit 4th rather than 3rd -- which not only spares us 1st inning ending GIDPs, but ends the pitcher hitting 8th crap; 2. the refusal to recognize that his rotation features three converted relievers, who need to be pulled too early rather than too late, TLR keeps pushing them (Looper in particular) an inning too long; 3. the refusal to find unique ways to rest Jimmy, Scotty, Eck and Pujols keeps all from hitting on all cylinders (you think he would have learned from last year); and 4. his continued preference for veterans keeping the lackadaisical Juan E. in the lineup ... and batting 4th, no less.

My suggested solutions?

Encarnacion -- trade him to the Angels for a minor league pitcher. They need a more productive bat -- as DH, 4th OF and insurance against another injury to Garrett Anderson -- and would probably prefer a veteran with stretch/playoff experience. We won't get much back ... maybe a Henry Bonilla ... but it's addition by subtraction. We have Ludwick, So and soon (I hope) Speizio to cover the OF vs. LHP. We could call up Stavinhoa if we had to. But get Juan and his laziness out of town.

Resting the veterans -- with Schu and J-Rod up and Speizio back (I hope), let Schu and Ankiel take some CF, give Jimmy an occasional night off ... and let Jimmy play some 1B to give Albert an occasional night off. After the extra rest from the ASB, and the Monday off before the Brewers series, Albert seemed to come out refreshed and powered up -- something I'd like to see more of. Ryan, Speizio and Cairo have to rest Rolen every now and then, and the Miles/Ryan/Cairo options can split 2nd and SS to rest Eck a bit.

Batting order -- In only 528 plate appearances, Pujols has already grounded into 20 DPs. He will easily pass his career high of 21, and with the hammies slowing him down, he could top 25 or 26. And I'm not buying TLR's insistence that Pujols has to hit 3rd in order to bat in the first inning. Brendan Ryan has an OBP of .416. Ankiel, in admittedly small sample size, is at .367. Duncan, in spite of his slump, is at .361. Eck's at .341. Miles at .335. None are below .333. This would suggest that in a normal 1st inning, one will be on with two out before Pujols comes up.

So let the rest of the team do its job ... and stop Pujols from having to run out those GIDPs. Move Pujols down. Miles/Ryan, Eck, Duncan or Ankiel, Pujols, Edmonds/Rolen, Rolen/Edmonds, Duncan/Ludwick, Molina and the pitcher.

More to come

[BrotherBri]

Now, for the last part ...

The ex-relievers -- My greatest concern is for Braden Looper. How many times this year has he pitched 5 scoreless innings only to give up runs in the 6th and/or 7th? Hmmm ... in the first half alone, he did exactly this on 04/04, 04/25, 05/24, and 06/03. On 05/01, having pitched 7 innings in 3 out of his previous 4 starts, and having topped 100 pitches in the previous start, he pitched 4 scoreless, then lost it. On 05/18, having topped 100 pitches two starts in a row, he had nothing. And as we know, his shoulder tired and tightened, pulling him from the rotation in mid-June.

When he came back ... hmmm ... lesseee ... 07/02, 07/26, 08/11 and 8/17. That's 8 starts already this year of 5 scoreless, then come the runs. And in the 7 starts after throwing 100 pitches, he's been bombed 4 times, and given 3 runs in 6 innings another time. Attempt #8 comes up next start, and I'm terrified that he'll have nothing.

To me, this shows an important pattern -- this man has a limit. Recognize that limit and gear your squad accordingly. Have a true long reliever prepared to go 3-4 innings ready for each Looper start. If Looper would bat in the 5th, pinch hit for him and bring in your long man. If not, let him start the 6th, but pull him as soon as he tops 90 pitches or gets into trouble. Then you don't risk both the current start AND the next one.

Mulder could actually serve this function in his first appearance (or two) back in the bigs. Let Looper go 4-5, then let Mulder go 3-5. If both do well, save the rest of the pen for another day. If not, then Looper is fresh to do well next time out, and Mulder got his work in. Or, if Maroth has a healthy elbow and has stopped tipping his pitches, he could do it. Or Dunc could prepare Keisler or Cate to do it.

But until those pitchers join the big club, Brad Thompson should do it. It will be more like starting for him, and he did respond fairly well to that ... at least for 3-5 innings each start.

I worry about Wainwright and Reyes as well ... Reyes because of his past injury history, and Wainwright because TLR has had him top 100 pitches 11 times already ... and this being his first year as a big-league starter, that has to be wearing. Mentally, Wainwright is showing terrific toughness, but we must do something to make sure the arm survives.

I wouldn't mind seeing Wellemeyer either rejoin the rotation and give every starter a bump back 3-4 days once or twice in Sept. (something Mulder can do when he returns), or do what I'm asking to be done with Thompson, Cate, Keisler and/or Maroth -- turn him into a split starter with Reyes, Looper, Mulder or Wainwright. Find a way to preserve the golden arms. For the love of God ...

Alright, gang ... have at it!

[tulcard]

It is a fact that with 35 games in 34 days we will have to juggle things a bit to keep somewhat fresh. All need to remain focused on each day's business and take the games 1 day at a time. We will need to win 25 of these games to overtake the Cubs and Brewers in my estimation. Tall order, but we can and should accomplish this task.

Our key, as always, will be pitching. The offense will be there. I have always subscribed to the belief that if you keep your opponent from putting points on the board you will win. (Hmm....a bit obvious!) Therefore, I would look for Wainwright, Reyes, Piniero and Wells to strive for 6 to 7 innings pitched in each start, unless they begin wearing down as the season progresses. I agree that Looper should be watched closely and be limited to 5 innings....6 max.

I don't particularly care for JRod and don't think we need him. I would also leave Pujols in the #3 hole. His hammy will bother him regardless of where he bats. I would rather see him get more at bats. Yes, rest Jimmy from time to time, although he turns it on as the competition gets to playoff time.

I'd keep Wellemeyer and Thompson in the pen unless a DH is scheduled....and I truly don't know if I'd throw Mulder at all. Each game is crucial. I just don't know if he'd be ready. I'd hate to see him bombed and play with his phyche heading into next year. On the other hand he may bounce back and give us quality starts. Glad it's not my call....

Just my thoughts for the moment....

[GoCrazyFolks]

BrotherBri,
I agree with most of your points. I do think Encarnacion may still be worth more than you think, but we missed the boat on trading him before the deadline. There is little chance that he will clear waivers, which means we can only negotiate with one team. Not a great situation.

As for the batting order, I agree whole-heartedly about Pujols moving down to the 4 hole. However, I would move Rolen into the three spot. Over his career he has been very good in that spot. More importantly it puts one of your best base runners on in front of Pujols. If anyone on the team can go first-to-third on a single or score from first on a double it is Rolen. (BTW his OBP this year is .335, so it falls right in line with the premise of your original argument).

[Ewttexas]

Of course, I have to disagree. In essence Albert is batting 4th. With TLR's current alignment, the pither is batting 8th. That means that the 9th, 1st and 2nd place hitters precede Albert except in the 1st inning which gives Albert an extra AB.

[GoCrazyFolks]

Ewt,
I don't know if the third place hitter has more AB's than the fourth. It is probable, but I am willing to bet over the course of the year it doesn't amount to very many AB's.

Now there are several negatives to batting him third. The most significant is that most good pitchers struggle more early than late. So in essence you can take away a good RBI opportunity early in the game when many pitchers are more vulnerable. In addition the only time the batting order is really controllable is the first inning. After that it is determined by who makes the outs. We're giving up our best opportunity to put Pujols in an RBI position.

If the argument is to get more guys on in front of Pujols, then failing to hold to the same argument in the first inning doesn't make any sense.

[BrotherBri]

What I had hoped to do was diffuse Tony's rationale, which is that batting Pujols third is necessary to get him up in the first inning. In this point, GoCrazy is exactly right. The only inning where you control the order IS the first and many pitchers DO have more trouble getting control of themselves in the first. This alone makes it more likely that Pujols would bat with more runners on in the first. And I think my original point is valid -- if you bat three different hitters in front of him, all with OBPs of .333 or greater, you have an excellent chance that at least one will get on for him. And since that chance increases with the issue of pitchers settling in, the first inning ought to have at least one runner on for him. And I'd much rather have Pujols hit 2 or 3-run homer than a solo shot.

So ... to my mind, this is the main part of the argument: (a) the crooked number in the first is more valuable than the single run; (b) with a third hitter in front of him, you have a higher probability of either a single run or a crooked number; (c) with the pitcher control issues of the first inning, you have an even higher probability of either a single run or crooked number; and (d) with Pujols jogging rather than running, the chance of a second out before Pujols bats eliminates the deflating 1st inning GIDP.

To my way of thinking, the only advantage of Pujols batting in the 1st is avoiding the three-up, three-down situation that would have him lead off the second. I understand TLR's thinking in this situation; in fact, "Three Nights in August" states it very clearly -- "Baseball is a game primarily of firsts in terms of who wins and who loses: getting the first strike ... getting the first out ... scoring the first run ..." He really hates the 3-up, 3-down, which gives momentum to the opposing starter. And in his mind, even when Pujols makes that third out, the opposing starter at least had to endure the fear of facing him, which must help a bit. AND the occasional two-out walk will run the pitch count up a bit.

I concede all these points. All valid. The question to my mind is whether the probabilities and/or values of other kinds of successes and failures outweigh the what we gain/lose when Pujols hits third rather than fourth. Those views are expressed above, and I do think the values of Pujols batting fourth outweigh those of him batting third.

To that, I would add the following: any situation in which Pujols would come up bases empty in the first would give have a 60-70% chance of having the same bases-empty chance in the second (based on OBPs of .300-.400). So the solo homer is the same in those moments. I would even argue that with nobody on and two out, Pujols would likely see less hittable pitches in the first inning than he would leading off the second, so that solo homer might (if not offset by an increase in control from innings 1 to 2 -- something less likely to occur in the none on, two out scenario) even be more likely. That also seems to benefit Pujols and the team.

If that is true, the only thing you're losing is the timing -- the possible loss of momentum from getting on top in the first, rather than the second. Which raises the real crux of the argument -- How important is that momentum? Are the solo homers more probable and more important than the 2-run homers, or the doubles or singles that drive in runs from the fourth spot?

OK ... discuss!

[BrotherBri]

Oh yeah ... two other points not related to the batting order --

(1) I'm ticked that TLR brought Looper out to start the 7th last night ... I realize his pitch count was low, but why risk it in a close game? For crying out loud, how many times is he going to make the same mistake before he learns from it?

(2) I'm even more ticked that TLR is letting Pujols play tonight. We won the first two, and the Scrubbies are behind late in their afternoon game. We are facing the worst pitcher of the three the Marlins will start against us. And his leg got a lot worse last night. DON'T RISK OUR GREATEST ASSET!! WE NEED HIM FOR THE BRAVES AND ASTROS SERIES!!

[BleacherBum593]

Couple of thoughts on your original post -

Encarnacion - Juan "The Glider" Encarnacion - I doubt if a trade can be made for him between now and the end of the season. However, I think they will try to move him in the off-season based on the comments that John Mozeliak made to the Post-Dispatch.

Looper/Mulder - I'd love to see them do the tag-team that was so successful at Quad Cities this summer.

Pujols - I vote for keeping him in the 3 hole. I want the opposing pitcher to have to face him in the first. And I want it guaranteed.

Pitchers for the Sept callup. The post quoted TLR today, saying that 4-6 pitchers will be activated after Sept 1. Mulder, Wellemeyer and Maroth are 3 of those. Keisler, Cate and either Cavazos or Jimenez are the other choices.

[tulcard]

Maroth may be activated, but I hope he is not used....perhaps e could be the PTBN in his own deal with Detroit....one could only dream that this could be so....

[BleacherBum593]

Wellemeyer was activated tonight with Brad Thompson going down to Memphis. Brad will be recalled when Memphis' season is over.

[tulcard]

Yes, and Wellemeyer pitched well in his one inning of work last night....