Looking Ahead to the Offseason Rebuilding Plans

[BleacherBum593]

The following is copied over from a thread started by forum members on Cards Hot Corner:

BleacherBum593
Chairman of the Board
Posts: 819
(8/25/06 2:34 pm)


Looking Ahead to the Offseason Rebuilding Plans

As we approach the turn for the final stretch of the year, I thought it was time to take a look at how we shaped up for next season.

The first step is to take a look at who we have contracts for, hold options on, who we control (under 6 years of MLB service time) and who will become free agents (major/minor).

Let’s start with the 40 man roster to check the players status at the end of the 2006 season.

Under contract for 2007:

P Chris Carpenter - $7 Mil
P Jason Isringhausen - 8.75 Mil
P Braden Looper - $5.5 Mil
P Ricardo Rincon (L) - $1.45 Mil
1B Albert Pujols - $15.25 Mil
3B Scott Rolen - $12.5 Mil
SS David Eckstein - $3.25 Mil
OF Juan Encarnacion - $5 Mil

Commitments (8 Players): $58.7 Mil

Team Options Held:

OF Jim Edmonds - $10mil / $3 mil buyout


Under Control (less than 6 yrs MLB service time):

P Carmen Cali (L)
P Brian Falkenborg
P Randy Flores (L)
P Josh Hancock
P Tyler Johnson (L)
P Josh Kinney
P Chris Narveson (L)
P Anthony Reyes
P Jorge Sosa
P Brad Thompson
P Adam Wainwright
C Michel Hernandez
C Mike Rose
C Yadier Molina
3B Travis Hanson
2B/SS Aaron Miles-Arbitration
SS Brendan Ryan
SS John Nelson
OF Rick Ankiel -Arbitration
OF Larry Bigbie-Arbitration
OF Chris Duncan
OF Reid Gorecki
OF John Rodriguez
OF Skip Schumaker
OF So Taguchi – Arbitration

Free Agents:

P Jason Marquis
P Mark Mulder (L)
P Jeff Suppan
P Jeff Weaver
C Gary Bennett
U Scott Spiezo
2B Ronnie Belliard
SS Jose Vizcaino
OF Preston Wilson - Houston - $500K buyout


Edited by: BleacherBum593 at: 10/8/06 9:52 am


BleacherBum593
Chairman of the Board
Posts: 820
(8/25/06 2:39 pm)
Re: Looking Ahead to the Offseason Rebuilding Plans In addition to the above, here is the status of minor league players who (a) will be free agents and (b) players who will be Rule V eligible this year. Who do you resign and who do you protect with a spot on the 40 man roster this fall? Any minor league free agent signed before the draft becomes eligible for the Rule V draft this fall, if they are not protected on the 40 man.

Minor League Free Agents at the end of 2006 season:

INF Ryan Barthelemy
P Alan Benes
OF Shaun Boyd
P Troy Cates
P Andy Cavazos
INF Luis Cotto
P Cory Doyne
C Brian Esposito
C Iker Franco
P Jose Garcia
OF Shawn Garrett
2B Bo Hart
C/1B Gabe Johnson
P Randy Leek
OF Brian Martin
C Dan Moylan
P Matt Perisho
INF Juan Richardson
P Ricardo Rodriguez
P Travis Smith
2B Junior Spivey
P Dennis Tankersley
1B Jorge Toca
3B Rico Washington
2B Derek Wathan
P John Webb

Those in red were added to FA list on 10-11-06

Removed from original FA List on 10-11-06:
C Henry Guerrero
SS Rayner Laya
OF Joe Mather
P Chris Russ


Rule V Eligible for Draft in Nov/Dec 2006:

P Tyler Adamczyk
P Phillip Anderson
P Dennis Dove
1B/3B Matt Dryer
2B/SS/OF Kevin Estrada
1B Mike Ferris
OF Chad Gabriel
P Justin Garza
C Henry Guerrero
P Eric Haberer
OF Cody Haerther
P Blake Hawksworth
2B Jarrett Hoffpauir
P Chris Lambert
SS Rayner Laya
OF Matt Lemanczyk
2B Juan Lucena
OF Joe Mather
P Kyle McClellan
2B/SS Mike McCoy
P Mark Michael
P Victor Moreno
P Jason Motte
SS Dan Nelson
P Kevin Ool
C Matt Pagnozzi
P Jordan Pals
P Michael Parisi
P Stuart Pomeranz
P Chris Russ
P Matt Scherer
P Mike Sillman
P Donnie Smith
P Mark Worrell
C Brandon Yarbrough

Those in red were added to Rule V list on 10-11-06.



Removed on 10-11-06 from Rule V list:P Troy Cate
OF Yonathon Sivira - released

Note: Updated for the removal of Wes Swackhamer.
Edited by: BleacherBum593 at: 10/11/06 12:47 pm


Bleacherbum593
Chairman of the Board
Posts: 821
(8/25/06 2:43 pm)
Re: Looking Ahead to the Offseason Rebuilding Plans Some more info that has to be considered is that the CBA agreement comes up for renewal this fall. That could effect the minimum amount currently being paid to players with 0-2 years of MLB Service time. This past season the minumum was $327K. I can see it jumping up to $350K for a 1st year player in 2007.

Here's a quick rundown of what we paid to the players in 2006 that are still under our control in 2007:

P Carmen Cali (L) -
P Brian Falkenborg -
P Randy Flores (L) - 350K
P Josh Hancock - 355K
P Tyler Johnson (L)
P Josh Kinney
P Chris Narveson (L)
P Anthony Reyes
P Jorge Sosa
P Brad Thompson - 334K
P Adam Wainwright -327K
C Michel Hernandez
C Yadier Molina - 400K
3B Travis Hanson
2B/SS Aaron Miles-MLB Time - 3.027 years - 350K
SS Brendan Ryan
OF Rick Ankiel - MLB Time - 3.152 years - 335K
OF Larry Bigbie-MLB Time - 4 years - 900K plus incentives
OF Chris Duncan -
OF Reid Gorecki -
OF John Rodriguez - 332K
OF Skip Schumaker - 329K
OF So Taguchi – MLB Time - 3.079 years - 825K

Players who were called up during the year, were paid a prorated amount of 327K based on the length of time they were at the major league level. IIRC, players on the 40 man who are optioned to the minors receive a minimum of 50K for the season.

At this point, 4 players are arbitration eligible this off season. They are highlighted in red above. The question is do you settle with them, offer arbitration, or do you release them?

Edited by: Bleacherbum593 at: 8/25/06 2:53 pm

[BleacherBum593]

Bleacherbum593
Chairman of the Board
Posts: 822
(8/25/06 3:10 pm)
Re: Looking Ahead to the Offseason Rebuilding Plans Lets start at the bottom and work up building the 40 man roster. Currently we're at 31 players with 1 under option.

Which minor leaguers would you promote to the 40 man (those who are Rule V eligible) and which ones would you remove and expose in the draft?

I think you have to consider the following players being added to the 40 man roster to protect them from the Rule V:

P Chris Lambert
P Eric Haberer
P Blake Hawksworth
P Stuart Pomeranz
P Mike Parisi
P Mark Worrell
P Dennis Dove
OF Cody Haerther

Other than those 8 players, I don't see anyone else who is Rule V eligible being considered. Am I wrong in my thinking?

Even though they are under consideration, the Cards have exposed many players over the years who we collectively thought would be protected. They may only protect 2-4 of the above players. Gambling that no teams will want to waste a roster spot for the year on one of the above players.

Of the current minor leaguers on the 40 man, those on the bubble to lose a spot - P Carmen Cali, OF Rick Ankiel and possibly So Taguchi. I'm thinking that Skip Schumaker could replace So for a fraction of what So is making or could make at arbitration.

[BleacherBum593]

KodiakSr
Moderator
Posts: 205
(8/25/06 3:50 pm)
Re: Looking Ahead to the Offseason Rebuilding Plans Wow, great work Bleach! Lot of info to digest here.

I'm concerned that Izzy is making so much. I understand the need for a solid closer, which Izzy has NOT been this year, but we are really adding salary constraints here. But we're probably stuck with him.

Marquis and Mulder are as good as gone in my mind. I think we should consider bringing Soup back. He's not going to make too much and he has usually been solid. I haven't been impressed this year but we need someone in that rotation.

I think Wainwright makes the rotation next year. That will weaken the pen but I think we can deal with it.

I suppose that at the moment Reyes is also ticketed for a slot in the rotation. Even with these 4 (Carpenter, Suppan (maybe), Wainwright, and Reyes) we are still way short on arms. Are there any starting pitching options from the minors?

Either way, the Cards clearly need to sign some pitching help this offseason.


KodiakSr
Moderator
Posts: 206
(8/25/06 4:00 pm)
Re: Looking Ahead to the Offseason Rebuilding Plans A list of possible free agents...

mlbcontracts.blogspot.com...gents.html

PLEASE get a SOLID second baseman Walt.

Some pitchers that interest me: Jason Schmidt, Brad Radke, Andy Pettitte, Woody Williams, Barry Zito, Danys Baez, Francisco Cordero, Jeff Fassero (just kidding!), Steve Kline (its the Kline man!), Dan Kolb, Cliff Politte .

[BleacherBum593]

ArRedbird
Bullpen
Posts: 84
(8/25/06 4:25 pm)
Re: Looking Ahead to the Offseason Rebuilding Plans Good work, BleacherBum!

-- concerning the rule V
Do you think Cody H. would be selected in the Rule V, and
that he'd stick with a major league club? I'd be inclined to
take a chance that he'd be passed over and not selected in the
major league portion of the rule V. -- just my .02.

I agree with those pitchers on your list. good young arms
are what other teams are looking for.

another commodity is a utility infielder, like Estrada.
He is a player who could be on a bench, backup a lot
of positions, and switch-hit. Some team might take a
shot at having a player like that. (Cards did with Luna!)

I'd think about adding Estrada to the 40-man -- depending on
what other mid-infielder the organization adds as
depth before the rule v.

on your "players in red"
I'd resign Miles (cheap infielder, can play ss and 2b)
and -- sadly -- let the others go.

If, if, if, if, if ....
I've wasted a lot of IFs on Bigbie and Ankiel. Maybe
it's time to just let 'em go....

edit for your Post #820 -- Wes Swackhamer was released 7/14

Edited by: ArRedbird at: 8/25/06 4:30 pm

[BleacherBum593]

VegasjJim
Bullpen
Posts: 175
(8/26/06 8:32 am)
Re: Looking Ahead to the Offseason Rebuilding Plans Great work Bleacher - this thread will live throughout the off season and be a great spot of reference.

In looking at who is added to the 40 man roster. I think Cavazos and Doyne are 2 guys they might be added to avoid losing as minor league FA. Both guys appear to have outside chance as bullpen support. I believe Seabol was treated like that in previous off season only then to be released in spring training.

Jim
Edited by: VegasjJim at: 8/26/06 8:34 am

[BleacherBum593]

BleacherBum593
Chairman of the Board
Posts: 824
(8/26/06 5:23 pm)
Re: Looking Ahead to the Offseason Rebuilding Plans Jim - I can see Doyne & Cavazos being re-signed, but I don't know if they are candidates for the 40 man. Cavazos could be. I know he's highly thought of.

I did a quick review of the minor league FA's and here's my picks of players who might be resigned:

P Alan Benes
OF Shaun Boyd
P Andy Cavazos
P Cory Doyne
C Iker Franco
P Jose Garcia
C/1B Gabe Johnson
SS Rayner Laya
P Randy Leek
OF Brian Martin
OF Joe Mather
SS John Nelson
P Chris Russ
P Travis Smith
P Dennis Tankersley
1B Jorge Toca
2B Derek Wathan

The ones I highlighted are the ones I think stand the greatest chance of being resigned. I really don't see any of them being added to the 40 man.

BleacherBum593
Chairman of the Board
Posts: 825
(8/26/06 5:29 pm)
Re: Looking Ahead to the Offseason Rebuilding Plans AR - As I said in my previous post, the Cards and our boards have often been in disagreement on who to add to the 40 man.

In the case of Haerther, my personal prejuidice could be coming in to play. I could see an AL team possibly taking a shot at him for his bat (DH'ing material). Cards could be willing to take the risk of losing him, since they have Stavinhoa and Marti ready to move up from AA. Plus Rasmus is only 1 year behind them.

Estrada - I think he's a real long shot to be added to the 40 man.

It's hard to tell though. What we base our info on could be entirely different than what WJ, Moe and Manno are basing their decisions on.


BleacherBum593
Chairman of the Board
Posts: 826
(8/26/06 5:39 pm)
Re: Looking Ahead to the Offseason Rebuilding Plans Heard 2 rumors so far this weekend that could influence what happens this off-season.

The first one was that Izzy is contemplating retirment because of his hip and the problems that it is causing him. The person who told me this lives close to Izzy's family in Illinois, so it could hold some truth. I don't know for sure at this time.

The second one is that the ownership will tell WJ to get younger this off-season. In effect, go with the youngster pitchers - Reyes & Wainwright - in the starting rotation next year. TLR has a reluctance to using young players and would prefer to go with "veterans".

Based on his history with the White Sox and the A's, TLR would announce his retirement instead of going with a youth movement in pitching and elsewhere. At this point his retirement is more supposition than fact. But, when the Sox and A's decided to get younger, TLR left.

Now I have no evidence to support either rumor at this time, but its food for thought and maybe should be discussed in another thread.

[BleacherBum593]

BleacherBum593
Chairman of the Board
Posts: 828
(8/27/06 9:30 am)
Re: Looking Ahead to the Offseason Rebuilding Plans I've created a seperate thread listing all the potential MLB free agents for this upcoming off season. Thanks to Kods for the link to them. As tranasctions occur effecting those players, if you'll post a note on that thread, I'll keep updating the list.

[BleacherBum593]

fifties1
Starter
Posts: 676
(8/27/06 9:59 am)
Re: Looking Ahead to the Offseason Rebuilding Plans I wouldn't mind if Izzy and Tony did retire. More money would be freed up. The team needs a change. I'd like using young players.

I was for the Mulder trade to get a lefty. I sure look wrong on that one. I have been a big fan for Rick Ankiel, but it seems he won't ever be able to play ball.

Too bad Marquis' elevator doesn't go to the top floor. There probably won't be any return value for him.

I still hope Walt Jocketty stays GM with the Cardinals.

There are interesting names on the free agent list, but I don't think big money should be spent on them. Pass.

What about Mark Buerhle?
sports.yahoo.com/mlb/reca...=260827104

I want Suppan and Weaver to be signed.

I don't think Belliard is the 2B we are looking for.



Edited by: fifties1 at: 8/27/06 10:18 pm

[BleacherBum593]

Tulcard
Bullpen
Posts: 190
(8/27/06 12:04 pm)
Re: Looking Ahead to the Offseason Rebuilding Plans Thorough as always Bleacher, which is most appreciated.

I'm going to reserve judgement for a couple of weeks before I add my opinion.

Although I do have these initial comments:

1. If both Reyes and Wainright are to be in the rotation next season this would be fine with me so long as Wainright would not be considered a possible closer for next year's club.

2. Sign Carpenter to an extension, or a new contract and take care of him.

3. Re-sign Suppan. This would give us 3 to 4 starters and would allow us to sign the #2 starter (or an add'l. #1) we need. Wainright and Reyes would not be "expensive" so we should be able to afford a quality starter so long as he is not paid more than Carpenter. (The fact that a dip---- like Marquis makes nearly as much as Carp infuriates me!)

4. If they cannot be traded, at least for prospects, let Marquis and Mulder walk. We'd get the prospects that way anyway.

5. I withhold comment on Weaver....

Guess I said more than I was going to....I'll give it some time before I comment on the bench, pen and OF. I will say this....I hope Edmonds can begin contributing again soon....he's been painful to watch of late....just when he gets close to breaking through, he gets injured again....Oh for one more injury free season for him....I surely hope we pick up his option and add 1 add'l year....I do want him to retire a Cardinal....

Tul

[BleacherBum593]

fifties1
Starter
Posts: 678
(8/27/06 12:41 pm)
Re: Looking Ahead to the Offseason Rebuilding Plans
It is in the news that The Florida owner is not always in agreement with Joe Girardi. He may soon be available for employement. I think Girardi has had good results with all those young players. Larussa has good points but I think his act has grown stale in St. Louis.

If Tony does move on, who would be a good replacement? We need someone good with young players.

Edmonds is seriously injured. He has been my favorite player since he has been with the Cardinals. I hope Jimmy and the Cardinals get a mutually agreeable contract, even if he can't be a player anymore. I don't expect it will be $10 million (Maybe not even that $7 in a year.) I agree that I hope he finishes his career as a Cardinal. Really, he may not get to where he can play anymore. He has done a lot of good promoting for the Cardinals.

[BleacherBum593]

KodiakSr
Moderator
Posts: 209
(8/28/06 2:23 pm)
Re: Looking Ahead to the Offseason Rebuilding Plans So Izzy may retire...interesting.

It would make sense that if the Cards go with a youth movement then TLR would leave. He likes his veterans and I don't see him having the patience to deal with a youth movement.

I don't think this team has to rebuild per se. We've still got the talent to compete next year (Pujols, Carpenter, Duncan, Wainwright, Rolen, Eckstein, Reyes, etc) but the team will need help to keep up with the emerging Brewers and Reds.

I'm A-OK with Reyes and Wainwright in the rotation, as long as we sign Suppan and a proven 2nd man in the rotation.

Needless to say, it will be a very interesting offseason (much more so than the past few offseasons). Dumping Izzy would be nice as that clears up a lot of payroll. Mulder and Marquis leaving clears up a LOT of payroll space that could be used to bring in that solid second starter....

I love Jimmy but I think we are witnessing a tragic end to his career. If he's brought back then it needs to be with an incentive laden contract....

As for Buerhle. I'm 92.34% sure that he'll be a Cardinal at some point in his career. Hopefully within the next couple of years...

[BleacherBum593]

BleacherBum593
Chairman of the Board
Posts: 858
(8/30/06 2:35 pm)
Re: Looking Ahead to the Offseason Rebuilding Plans After doing alittle research, it looks like the Cards hold an option on Preston Wilson, which was part of his contract with the Astro's. Its for 3 years - $24 mil with a $500K buyout.

Don't know if they'll exercise it or not, but I've gone and ahead and reclassed him on the list.


BleacherBum593
Chairman of the Board
Posts: 891
(9/6/06 2:08 pm)
Re: Looking Ahead to the Offseason Rebuilding Plans Per Derrick Goold at the Post, as part of Wilson being DFA'ed by Houston, Houston pays Wilson $500K to buyout his 2007 Option and he becomes a free agent.

I've updated the first part of this thread to reflect that.

I've also updated the lists to reflect the adding of SS John Nelson & C Mike Rose to the 40 man roster. They both will now be under our control and can be taken off the available FA lists.
Edited by: BleacherBum593 at: 9/6/06 2:11 pm

[BleacherBum593]

GoCrazyFolks
Rookie
Posts: 4
(9/8/06 10:49 am)
Re: Looking Ahead to the Offseason Rebuilding Plans I wouldn't mind seeing Reyes in the rotation, but I think Wainwright might be better suited to the bullpen. I would also not feel terribly comfortable with 40% of the rotation having very little MLB experience.
I say re-sign Mulder to an incentive laden deal (If possible and cheap enough). Try to get Zito. We get two LH starters, plus these two were tight in Oakland. Re-sign Suppan (I still consider Suppan to be one of the most underrated pitchers in the game).

Rotation;
Carpenter
Mulder
Reyes
Zito
Suppan

If something doesn't work out you have Wainwright as a safety net. Obviously there are other combinations, but this would be my goal. I don't see Buehrle available this year. His option is only $9.5 million. I can't see it not getting picked up. Now in 2008, I wouldn't bet against it.

If Izzy leaves, who closes? Looper has the ability, but hasn't done well in the past. I don't really think we would save money because his replacement is likely to be more expensive. Anyone have any ideas?

As far as managers if TLR leaves, I think you have to start with Oquendo. Add in Girardi and maybe Pena. Obviously you would have to give your minor league guys a look. Isn't Francona still available?

[BleacherBum593]

BleacherBum593
Chairman of the Board
Posts: 990
(10/11/06 12:48 pm)
Re: Looking Ahead to the Offseason Rebuilding Plans I've updated the minor league FA list and Rule V list on 10-11-06 based on information obtained thru the minor league baseball website today.

[BleacherBum593]

BrotherBri
Rookie
Posts: 15
(10/19/06 1:30 pm)

My guess is that with Wainwright excelling as a closer, we work hard to re-sign Suppan, Weaver and Mulder at friendly prices. If Mulder balks, I think we give Narvy a shot at starting. Rincon, TJ and Flores from the left side, Thompson, Looper and Wainwright from the right, with a NRI to get the 7th pen slot.

The most interesting development of the offseason will be Izzy's recovery. Do we collect on an insurance claim, or can that only happen if he retires? That big $$ will make a huge difference on who we sign or trade for.

I'd protect Haerther as insurance against a bad development with Edmonds -- if he's either adamant about the $10 mil or too ticked at TLR. Under other circumstances, I'd think he'd be safe to get through, but we may need him.

Schu over So, and bye-bye Bigbie. Ankiel ... geez ... I don't think we can, or should, protect him, but you hate to let that talent go.

Re-sign Miles. Perhaps he could start at 2B, with Nelson backing both middle IF positions until we can get something at the trade deadline. Although with teams demanding WAY too much from us, I don't know if we can count on that approach any more.