Winter Warm-Up Report (Monday)

BleacherBum593 · 01-15-2007, 09:49 PM

I attended 2 sessions at the Winter Warm-up today (Monday). Both were presented by Jeff Luhnow and his "team". The first hour covered scouting and they then moved onto the minor league system in the second hour. In addition to Luhnow, the presenters were Dan Kantrovitz (Director of College Scouting), Sig Mejdal (Senior Quantitative Analyst), Mike Girsch (Scouting Development Coordinator) and John Vuch (Director of Minor League Operations).

I talked to Vuch before they got started with the minor league presentation and found that he is very enthused about his upcoming visit to FanHome. I held back on most of our questioning, so that we could get it first hand on Sunday night. But, I did sneak in a few questions after their presentation.

I also asked John how Bruce Manno was handling his new assignment. One of my concerns is that Bruce would leave the organization after being relieved of overseeing the minor leagues. John says that he's taken it like a pro and has thrown himself into his new job. He'll be okay.

In the first hour they talked about scouting in general and their use of statistics in trying to predict future success. This area is mainly used in scouting college players since they are able to accumulate a lot of data over a college players first 3 years, plus their play in the summer leagues.

Coupled with the scouts eyeballing the prospect, they are much better able to get a "feel" on the prospect and are able to lower the "risk" in drafting him. In addition, they are able to use the stats to select players, who aren’t getting much attention from other organizations, and take an eyeball look at them. With high school players and international players its much more based on the scouts eyeballing the prospect.

Cards feel that they are out ahead of the field in the use of statistical evaluation. Out of the 30 teams, only a couple teams are putting money into this type of evaluation.

Biggest tidbit that I gleamed from the first hour - the Cards are looking to expand into Asia. Probably will focus on Korea, China and Australia.

Moving onto the minor league session in hour two. BTW, Jason Scott, with the Birdhouse, was there also and he taped the sessions. I’m not sure if he is going to use the audio over at Scout or if he’ll put it into a written version. When I find out, I’ll put in a link to it.

Some of the highlights – Cards have added a 9th team for this upcoming season. It’ll be in the Gulf Coast League in Florida and they’ll run it out of the Jupiter complex at Roger Dean Stadium. They plan on stocking the team with players from the DSL & VSL Cardinals plus high school players that they draft in June. The plan is for them to play here in year 1. Then move up to the Appy League and/or NY Penn League in Year 2. Some may get sent to Quad Cities, but it is unlikely. The plan is for them to move up to QC in year 3.

They will take the college players drafted in June and use them to stock the Johnson City/Batavia teams, with a few of the better college players being sent to QC to start their professional careers.

One interesting visual chart that they had in the 2nd hour. Currently in the majors 79% of the players came thru the draft and 21% are international players. In the minors its 57% (draft) to 43% (international).

Rick Ankiel - penciled in as 1 of Memphis OF'ers.

Luhnow was asked who were our top position prospects. He selected CF Colby Rasmus, OF Jon Jay and SS Tyler Greene. He would only commit to Blake Hawksworth as the top pitching prospect.

3 top reliever prospects (Luhnow) – Worrell, Sillman and Perez.

On Hawksworth, it looks like he is penciled into the Memphis starting rotation this year.

It wasn’t mentioned at the session, but there was a recent article in the Springfield News-Leader that Chris Lambert may be shifted to the bullpen at Memphis.

Mark McCormick – "electric stuff". He’ll continue to work as a starter. IMO, its to give him enough innings to straighten out his control problems.

Miguel Negron – won the batting title in his winter league. Only 24 years old and Luhnow is high on him.

I asked John after the session about a player that I started tracking last summer and who was shut down with an injury at Johnson City – Senger Peralta. He’s fine and will be brought over to the extended spring training camp before getting an assignment.

Another player that I asked about was recently signed OF Ian Church. He was voted the top Independent League player in 2005 after crushing 35 homers for Kalamzoo. Evidently they (the Cardinals) had the same concerns that I did on Church (steroids). Reason for that – he went from hitting only a couple of HR’s in each of his first few seasons in Indy ball to hitting 35 last year. Big, Big Jump. First question that came to my mind – Steroids? But, they are satisfied that that’s not the case. They even looked at before and after photo’s to see if there was a radical change in his body size. Low risk signing but could have a huge upside. Not sure on where he’ll start. Could be anywhere from QC to Springfield.

Another player that I’ve got flagged for 2007 – Troy Cate. He’ll probably go into camp as a starter, but could be converted back to a reliever. It’ll have to play itself out. Has the possibility, per Vuch, of reaching St Louis in 2007. Lights out in 2006 season and has followed it up with a good winter league session down in Mexico.

Before heading for home, I asked Vuch the question that I liked to ask Bruce Manno – Who do you think will have a "break-out" year? Also present when I asked the question to John was Girsch & Mejdal. Some of the names kicked around were P Mitchell Boggs, P Trey Hearne, OF Luke Gorsett

If I didn’t recall correctly, I’m sure John will remind me of it Sunday.

Once again – we’re hosting a chat session with the Cardinals Director of Minor League Operations John Vuch this Sunday at 9 PM central time. Mark your calenders/set your clocks. It would be nice if everyone shows up to welcome him to our new home at the newly, Independent FanHome. You won’t be disappointed. If all goes well, I’m sure we can get John back on regular basis this summer.

ArRedbird · 01-15-2007, 10:40 PM

Thanks, BleacherBum, for putting in the hours and in
summarizing the meeting.

I'm guessing they didn't give away any in-house
info or proprietory info on the weighting they do
with the stats. But is there anything else you can
add about that portion of the session? -- like
OPS, no. of pitches per AB, or bat speed, etc.?

You picked up a name from them I hadn't heard
emphasized before: Gorsett. And the fact that
some of them are high on Negron too.
Good work!

BleacherBum593 · 01-15-2007, 11:03 PM

Spoke in generalities about the use of stats. I didn't realize it but Sig was hired away from NASA. Nothing like having a rocket scientist working for us (Luhnow's line)

ArRedbird · 01-15-2007, 11:21 PM

Can't say I blame them for not revealing
their stat - methods and the things they
emphasize. You got to figure -- or hope --
that those kinds of things give you the edge
over your competition.

NASA, eh?
Maybe there's an equation
for launch angles and lift coefficients!

bccran · 01-15-2007, 11:22 PM

Good report, Bleacher. They mentioned Negron at the Saturday session also. I have studied his 7 year minor league record several times, and still don't see anything special at all. Mediocre average, not much power, low OBP and not a great deal of speed. Maybe he has a good glove.

BleacherBum593 · 01-15-2007, 11:49 PM

1st round pick of the Blue Jays in 2000 (18th overall selection in the draft), 6'-2", 170 lbs. Waived by Toronto in May of 2006 and picked up the Cubbies, who then released him this fall. Not much power, but he did lead his winter league in BA in the season just completed.

Maybe you need to see him up close to see what tools that he does have.

BTW - your off the "hook" for all the Q's on Saturday. They didn't mind it.

LawlessinIndiana · 01-16-2007, 05:53 AM

I would also like to thank Bleacher and Cranny for their time and effort. This is the information that gets me through until spring training starts. I have been a long time lurker with this group of posters and just now found this new board and its nice to see some familiar names and I hope to post more in the future.

btw cardinal nation will grow by one this April me and my wife are expecting our first child (a baby girl) . There is a chance she might be born on opening day(whata way to start the season).

tulcard · 01-16-2007, 09:52 AM

Welcome LawlessinIndiana and an early Congrats to you and the Mrs. It is a special time for you both so enjoy it as kids grow up extremely fast. Looking forward to your input....

GoCrazyFolks · 01-16-2007, 10:21 AM

Cogratualations. There is no experience in the world like having a child.

Welcome to the new roosting spot. Hope you enjoy.

BleacherBum593 · 01-16-2007, 11:52 AM

Congrats on both counts Lawless. I'll second Tulcards invitation to post your thoughts on Cardinal baseball.

tulcard · 01-16-2007, 12:27 PM

....and Bleacher....thank you for your indepth report as always. I look forward to your analysis each year. This time of year when we have all of the speculation and then the Team finally comes together is as fun as the season itself....

Reminds me of college football recruiting which is going on now as well....

Nighthawk · 01-17-2007, 10:13 AM

Spectacular work as always, Bleach. Can you believe that ST is only a few months away? How time flies when you're World Champs....

Kodiak · 01-17-2007, 02:56 PM

Welcome Lawless...and an early welcome to a brand new Cardinals fan

ArRedbird · 01-17-2007, 06:16 PM

Jason Scott's report is up at that other site,
for anyone who is a member there.

01-15-2007, 09:49 PM	#1 (permalink)
BleacherBum593 Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: St Louis (LF Bleachers) Posts: 1,864	Winter Warm-Up Report (Monday) I attended 2 sessions at the Winter Warm-up today (Monday). Both were presented by Jeff Luhnow and his "team". The first hour covered scouting and they then moved onto the minor league system in the second hour. In addition to Luhnow, the presenters were Dan Kantrovitz (Director of College Scouting), Sig Mejdal (Senior Quantitative Analyst), Mike Girsch (Scouting Development Coordinator) and John Vuch (Director of Minor League Operations). I talked to Vuch before they got started with the minor league presentation and found that he is very enthused about his upcoming visit to FanHome. I held back on most of our questioning, so that we could get it first hand on Sunday night. But, I did sneak in a few questions after their presentation. I also asked John how Bruce Manno was handling his new assignment. One of my concerns is that Bruce would leave the organization after being relieved of overseeing the minor leagues. John says that he's taken it like a pro and has thrown himself into his new job. He'll be okay. In the first hour they talked about scouting in general and their use of statistics in trying to predict future success. This area is mainly used in scouting college players since they are able to accumulate a lot of data over a college players first 3 years, plus their play in the summer leagues. Coupled with the scouts eyeballing the prospect, they are much better able to get a "feel" on the prospect and are able to lower the "risk" in drafting him. In addition, they are able to use the stats to select players, who aren’t getting much attention from other organizations, and take an eyeball look at them. With high school players and international players its much more based on the scouts eyeballing the prospect. Cards feel that they are out ahead of the field in the use of statistical evaluation. Out of the 30 teams, only a couple teams are putting money into this type of evaluation. Biggest tidbit that I gleamed from the first hour - the Cards are looking to expand into Asia. Probably will focus on Korea, China and Australia. Moving onto the minor league session in hour two. BTW, Jason Scott, with the Birdhouse, was there also and he taped the sessions. I’m not sure if he is going to use the audio over at Scout or if he’ll put it into a written version. When I find out, I’ll put in a link to it. Some of the highlights – Cards have added a 9th team for this upcoming season. It’ll be in the Gulf Coast League in Florida and they’ll run it out of the Jupiter complex at Roger Dean Stadium. They plan on stocking the team with players from the DSL & VSL Cardinals plus high school players that they draft in June. The plan is for them to play here in year 1. Then move up to the Appy League and/or NY Penn League in Year 2. Some may get sent to Quad Cities, but it is unlikely. The plan is for them to move up to QC in year 3. They will take the college players drafted in June and use them to stock the Johnson City/Batavia teams, with a few of the better college players being sent to QC to start their professional careers. One interesting visual chart that they had in the 2nd hour. Currently in the majors 79% of the players came thru the draft and 21% are international players. In the minors its 57% (draft) to 43% (international). Rick Ankiel - penciled in as 1 of Memphis OF'ers. Luhnow was asked who were our top position prospects. He selected CF Colby Rasmus, OF Jon Jay and SS Tyler Greene. He would only commit to Blake Hawksworth as the top pitching prospect. 3 top reliever prospects (Luhnow) – Worrell, Sillman and Perez. On Hawksworth, it looks like he is penciled into the Memphis starting rotation this year. It wasn’t mentioned at the session, but there was a recent article in the Springfield News-Leader that Chris Lambert may be shifted to the bullpen at Memphis. Mark McCormick – "electric stuff". He’ll continue to work as a starter. IMO, its to give him enough innings to straighten out his control problems. Miguel Negron – won the batting title in his winter league. Only 24 years old and Luhnow is high on him. I asked John after the session about a player that I started tracking last summer and who was shut down with an injury at Johnson City – Senger Peralta. He’s fine and will be brought over to the extended spring training camp before getting an assignment. Another player that I asked about was recently signed OF Ian Church. He was voted the top Independent League player in 2005 after crushing 35 homers for Kalamzoo. Evidently they (the Cardinals) had the same concerns that I did on Church (steroids). Reason for that – he went from hitting only a couple of HR’s in each of his first few seasons in Indy ball to hitting 35 last year. Big, Big Jump. First question that came to my mind – Steroids? But, they are satisfied that that’s not the case. They even looked at before and after photo’s to see if there was a radical change in his body size. Low risk signing but could have a huge upside. Not sure on where he’ll start. Could be anywhere from QC to Springfield. Another player that I’ve got flagged for 2007 – Troy Cate. He’ll probably go into camp as a starter, but could be converted back to a reliever. It’ll have to play itself out. Has the possibility, per Vuch, of reaching St Louis in 2007. Lights out in 2006 season and has followed it up with a good winter league session down in Mexico. Before heading for home, I asked Vuch the question that I liked to ask Bruce Manno – Who do you think will have a "break-out" year? Also present when I asked the question to John was Girsch & Mejdal. Some of the names kicked around were P Mitchell Boggs, P Trey Hearne, OF Luke Gorsett If I didn’t recall correctly, I’m sure John will remind me of it Sunday. Once again – we’re hosting a chat session with the Cardinals Director of Minor League Operations John Vuch this Sunday at 9 PM central time. Mark your calenders/set your clocks. It would be nice if everyone shows up to welcome him to our new home at the newly, Independent FanHome. You won’t be disappointed. If all goes well, I’m sure we can get John back on regular basis this summer. Last edited by BleacherBum593; 01-15-2007 at 10:17 PM.

01-17-2007, 10:13 AM	#12 (permalink)
Nighthawk Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: NYC Posts: 2,619	Spectacular work as always, Bleach. Can you believe that ST is only a few months away? How time flies when you're World Champs.... __________________ "Whenever the word 'fair' features so prominently in legislation, the odds are that it is economically illiterate" -Rich Lowery What am I doing with your tax money? Sustaining the realm according to caprice.

01-17-2007, 06:16 PM	#14 (permalink)
ArRedbird Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Arkansas Posts: 565	winter warm up Jason Scott's report is up at that other site, for anyone who is a member there.

01-15-2007, 10:40 PM	#2 (permalink)
ArRedbird Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Arkansas Posts: 565	Thanks, BleacherBum, for putting in the hours and in summarizing the meeting. I'm guessing they didn't give away any in-house info or proprietory info on the weighting they do with the stats. But is there anything else you can add about that portion of the session? -- like OPS, no. of pitches per AB, or bat speed, etc.? You picked up a name from them I hadn't heard emphasized before: Gorsett. And the fact that some of them are high on Negron too. Good work!

01-15-2007, 11:03 PM	#3 (permalink)
BleacherBum593 Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: St Louis (LF Bleachers) Posts: 1,864	Spoke in generalities about the use of stats. I didn't realize it but Sig was hired away from NASA. Nothing like having a rocket scientist working for us (Luhnow's line)

01-15-2007, 11:21 PM	#4 (permalink)
ArRedbird Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Arkansas Posts: 565	Can't say I blame them for not revealing their stat - methods and the things they emphasize. You got to figure -- or hope -- that those kinds of things give you the edge over your competition. NASA, eh? Maybe there's an equation for launch angles and lift coefficients!

01-15-2007, 11:22 PM	#5 (permalink)
bccran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 40	Good report, Bleacher. They mentioned Negron at the Saturday session also. I have studied his 7 year minor league record several times, and still don't see anything special at all. Mediocre average, not much power, low OBP and not a great deal of speed. Maybe he has a good glove.

01-15-2007, 11:49 PM	#6 (permalink)
BleacherBum593 Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: St Louis (LF Bleachers) Posts: 1,864	1st round pick of the Blue Jays in 2000 (18th overall selection in the draft), 6'-2", 170 lbs. Waived by Toronto in May of 2006 and picked up the Cubbies, who then released him this fall. Not much power, but he did lead his winter league in BA in the season just completed. Maybe you need to see him up close to see what tools that he does have. BTW - your off the "hook" for all the Q's on Saturday. They didn't mind it.

01-16-2007, 05:53 AM	#7 (permalink)
LawlessinIndiana New Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 3	I would also like to thank Bleacher and Cranny for their time and effort. This is the information that gets me through until spring training starts. I have been a long time lurker with this group of posters and just now found this new board and its nice to see some familiar names and I hope to post more in the future. btw cardinal nation will grow by one this April me and my wife are expecting our first child (a baby girl) . There is a chance she might be born on opening day(whata way to start the season).

01-16-2007, 09:52 AM	#8 (permalink)
tulcard Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 863	Welcome LawlessinIndiana and an early Congrats to you and the Mrs. It is a special time for you both so enjoy it as kids grow up extremely fast. Looking forward to your input....

01-16-2007, 10:21 AM	#9 (permalink)
GoCrazyFolks Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 167	Cogratualations. There is no experience in the world like having a child. Welcome to the new roosting spot. Hope you enjoy.

01-16-2007, 11:52 AM	#10 (permalink)
BleacherBum593 Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: St Louis (LF Bleachers) Posts: 1,864	Congrats on both counts Lawless. I'll second Tulcards invitation to post your thoughts on Cardinal baseball.

01-16-2007, 12:27 PM	#11 (permalink)
tulcard Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 863	....and Bleacher....thank you for your indepth report as always. I look forward to your analysis each year. This time of year when we have all of the speculation and then the Team finally comes together is as fun as the season itself.... Reminds me of college football recruiting which is going on now as well....

01-17-2007, 02:56 PM	#13 (permalink)
Kodiak Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 746	Welcome Lawless...and an early welcome to a brand new Cardinals fan