Top 40 - Fanhome's Posters Top Prospects

[ArRedbird]

Here's my "top 40" list of Cardinal prospects.

Feel free to comment, criticize, throw stones, or upchuck.

Note 1:While Josh Kinney could still be regarded as a prospect,
I've not included him in this list. In my mind, he's no
longer a prospect, but a valuable member of the Cardinal bullpen.

Note 2: Amaury Marti (#24) and Edgar Gonzalez (#10)
may be a bit old for the label of "prospect" --
but I've included them anyway.

Note 3: 20 of the 40 are pitchers. Maybe it's just me
but the strength of the Cardinals' minor league system
is still found in its good pitching prospects. The rest
of the system is improving, no doubt, but the pitchers
are still the best group overall, in my mind at least.


Top Forty Prospects Jan. 1, 2007

1. Colby Rasmus OF
2. Blake Hawksworth RHSP
3. Jaime Garcia LHSP
4. Brad Furnish LHSP
5. Brian Anderson C
6. Adam Ottavino RHSP
7. Chris Perez RHRP
8. Jon Jay OF
9. Brendan Ryan SS
10. Edgar Gonzalez 2b/3b
11. Matt Scherer RHRP
12. Nick Stavinoha OF
13. Daryl Jones OF
14. Jose Martinez 2b
15. Troy Cate LHRP
16. Chris Narveson LHSP
17. Trey Hearne RHSP
18. Mark McCormick RHSP
19. Tyler Greene SS
20. Cody Haerther OF
21. Stu Pomerantz RHSP
22. Chris Lambert RHSP
23. Donovan Solano SS
24. Amaury Marti OF
25. Nathan Southard OF
26. Andy Cavazos RHRP
27. Jon Edwards OF
28. Isaias Garcia 2B
29. Dennis Dove RHRP
30. Eric Haberer LHSP
31. Mike Sillman RHRP
32. Mark Hamilton 1B
33. Mitchel Boggs RHSP
34. Nick Webber RHSP
35. Eddie Degerman RHSP
36. Mark Worrell RHRP
37. Brandon Yarbrough C
38. Reid Gorecki OF
39. Thomas Pham SS
40. Sean Danielson OF

[bccran]

Good list!

Am interested in why Furnish, Gonzalez, and Scherer are rated so high and Hamilton, Boggs, and Edwards are so far down.

[ArRedbird]

cranny --
always appreciate your insights, questions, observations.
(You're one of my heroes b/c you'd attend the Winter
Warm Up and ask questions/take notes about the minor
leaguer prospects!)

About Hamilton, Boggs, and Edwards -- I must admit there's
not much rhyme or reason why they're ranked 32, 33, 27, respectively.
But here's a stab at it:

Hamilton plays first, and because we have the Great One in StL
holding down that position, I'm always a little leery of ranking
the first-base prospects very high. (I didn't even rank Roth, for example,
even tho he did play some OF). I'd like to wait and watch him some more.

On Edwards, perhaps he's best viewed among my
rankings of the outfielders isolated from my Top 40:
Outfielders
1. Colby Rasmus
8. Jon Jay
12. Nick Stavinoha
13. Daryl Jones
20. Cody Haerther
23. Nathan Southard
24. Amaury Marti
27. Jon Edwards
38. Reid Gorecki
40. Sean Danielson
- -- Maybe if Edwards had played more than 48 games
as a pro, I'd have ranked him higher.
Maybe should have anyway,
because I'm certainly not convinced re Marti at #24!
At #23, I like Southard's State College numbers
a little better than Edward's JC ones,
tho Southard is 5 yrs. older.

Boggs: I like him, yes, I do. I guess what sours me
a little on him is his 1.40 WHIP and less than 8 k/9.
He only pitched 145 innings in '06, but that's more than
twice as much as he's ever thrown in a year. So let's
watch & see how he responds in '07. He could be great.

Furnish: I guess you could call him my "sleeper."
First, I'm partial to lefties. Next, he had a WHIP of 1.12
in 75.1 ip with more than 8 k/9 and didn't give
up the long ball very much. He was the Cards' #3 pick
in the '06 draft and they called him the 2nd best lefty. We'll see.

Scherer: Matt Scherer started down around 30 on my initial
list. But I kept coming back to the stats he put up
at Palm Beach this year. I'd look at those and move
him up a notch. Then look at 'em again, and move
him up. Until I stuck him at #11.
What's not to like about his stats? Basically, the organization
took an "ok" starter and turned him into a
really tough reliever. He tossed 84.1 innings with 108 k's.
(k/9 11.53), with a WHIP of 1.13. That's outstanding.
-- I figure he has one real good "out-pitch" and/or
a deceptive delivery that works better if batters only
see him once in a game (like Kiki Calero).
I know . . . you're probably thinking -- those numbers went
to Ar's head and blinded his better judgement!
Let's see how he does in AA in '07.

Who's left? Oh Gonzalez. Well, this twice Rule 5 draftee
who will turn 29 in June put up some good numbers in '06.
I'm looking for him to play 3b -- maybe 2b -- at Memphis
and be a candidate for a call-up should Kennedy or Miles
pull a hammy during the season. Looks like a pro- # 2 hitter,
with a minor league career indicating that he
has some plate discipline. On the basis of that, I moved
him ahead of most of the younger infield prospects.

[BleacherBum593]

Thanks AR.

One trap you may not want to fall into in rating players is basing your picks on what is at the ML level, ie 1B and Pujols.

To me slots should be based on players projected abilities.

He may not fit into our future scheme of things because a player is blocking him at the ML level. But, he can always be used as a chip/pawn to secure player/players that we need.

See Terry Evans/Jeff Weaver in 2006.

----
Looking at your list and Garcia at 14. That seems a tad high for me. Granted he had a good year at JC, but his age makes me slot him below Jose Martinez, a younger 2B who played at QC last year.

Brad Furnish - are you including his college stats in arriving at his IP/WHIP?

More later.

[ArRedbird]

Good catch, Bleacher, on ip for Furnish.
He had 75.1 ip, not 175. I'll make that change.
His WHIP at State College was 1.12 & HR/9 - 0.60.

I understand about the pitfall with first-basemen, and others.
I'll try to remember to factor that in more. (I'm just not
enthusiastic about Hamilton. But I'm probably wrong about him!)

Have there been many minor league 1b included in deals like
the Evans for Weaver one? Hmmm. I may have to check that out.

edit: I may have mistakenly switched Garcia and Martinez. I'll
double check that.

[karuso]

Furnish at #4, we don't have enough innings on him yet. No way do I put Ottavino this high until we know about his changeup, and if he can get lefthanded hitters out. This comes from scouts who saw him. He bombed at A because of this. Garcia-the replies were right on, old for JC, let's see what he does at higher levels before making judgement. Still love Jones, just hope next year at this time we are talking big about him. The most talent in the organization because of his speed and power. Does he put it together this year? Southard, all speed, how much hitting ability? Edwards-will his " lumberjack" swing translate into too many strikeouts? Hope not. Hamilton-until he can play defense, he will only be a DH at higher levels according to scouts. Here's to hoping both Webber and Pham have the years they are capable of, and we are talking big about them next year. Webber's sinker is incredible when he is on. Reliever or starter? that's the question I hope. Still in love with Pham's potential. But I love our pitcher's potential.

[ArRedbird]

Yep, I flip-flopped those two infielders.
When I added Martinez's QC stats to my list,
I mistakenly cut & pasted them under Garcia's JC stats.

I'll make the change above.

Thanks to all for comments, suggestions!

[BleacherBum593]

ArRedbird - Before I post my 40 man, I have 1 Q for you. How come no Blake King on your 40?

[BleacherBum593]

Before I change my mind again (and it's changed at least 5 times today again), I'll post my Top 40 Cards prospects. My list will have a few names that will have you scratching your heads, going "who's that?". In compiling my list, I drilled down to the DSL & VSL teams in looking at potential prospects. Most people do not go that far in putting their lists together.

So once again, we'll be the first ones talking about them. Which, if anyone has followed the core group here, is standard operating procedure for us. We always are out in front in looking at players coming onto the scene.

1 Colby Rasmus - CF
2 Blake Hawksworth - RHSP
3 Jamie Garcia - LHSP
4 Bryan Anderson - C
5 Jon Jay - OF
6 Adam Ottavino - RHSP
7 Chris Perez - RH Closer
8 Daryl Jones - OF
9 Troy Cate - LHRP/SP
10 Tyler Greene - SS
11 Blake King - RHSP
12 Nick Stavinoha - RF
13 Chris Narveson - LHSP
14 Brendan Ryan - SS
15 Cody Haerther - LF
16 Brad Furnish - LHSP
17 Jose Martinez - 2B
18 Thomas Pham - SS
19 Tyler Herron - RHSP
20 Mark McCormick - RHSP
21 Wilmer Alvardo - C/3B
22 Nick Webber - RHSP
23 Mike Sillman - RHRP
24 Donovan Solano - INF
25 Mark Hamilton - 1B
26 Ian Church - OF
27 Senger Peralta - LHSP
28 Mitchell Boggs - RHSP
29 Wladimir Mendoza - LHSP
30 Andres Rosales - RHSP
31 Stu Pomeranz - RHSP
32 Matt Scherer - RHRP
33 Eddie Degerman - RHSP
34 Mark Worrell - RHRP
35 Trey Hearne - RHSP
36 Jonathon Edwards - OF
37 Jose Arredondo - RHSP
38 Reid Gorecki - CF
39 Ivan Castro - C
40 Travis Hanson - 3B

[ArRedbird]

Way to go, Bleacher!
Alvardo, Peralta, Mendoza, Rosales, Arredondo, Castro --
we'll be watching for them!

Any chance some of these
begin the year with our new
team in the Gulf Coast League?

(Do you project Alvardo as a 3b or C?)

Regarding King: I've got no defense, there.

Except to say, that I decided arbitrarily not
to pick more than 20 pitchers in the top 40,
+
I'm not particularly high on JC pitchers,
preferring to see how they do with more ip.

I will say that King comes in at #21 with...
#22 Norrick
#23 Gregerson
#24 Parisi
#25 Maiques (unreasonably optimistic b/c he's been injured, I know!)

That's as deep as I went with the pitchers.

[BleacherBum593]

Not sure on where Alvarado will end up. In an earlier post (Top 40 Prospect List) VegasjJim mentioned that he was a potential middle order guy. His line for this past summer for the VSL team - .299/.398/.433/.831.

Good possibility that the 19 y/o will go to the new Gulf League team at Jupiter.

Peralta (19 y/o) pitched briefly at Johnson City this summer. He'll be 19 this upcoming season. One of the Cards players that saw him pitch down at Jupiter gives him very high marks.

Mendoza (20 y/o)- Went 6-4 for the VSL team. 2.26 ERA, 75.2 IP, 89 K's, 1.28 WHIP

Rosales (18 y/o)- DSL Pitcher - 4-3, 2.28 ERA, 43.1 IP, 62 K's. He held oppenents to a .146 BA

Arredondo (20 y/o)- DSL Pitcher - 4-1, 1.81 ERA, 49.2 IP, 48 K, OBA - .209

Castro (19 y/o) - caught for DSL. .313/.352/.415/.768

The ages given are the players ages as of April 1, 2007.

[ArRedbird]

Here's a combined look at 4 published lists of Top Cardinal Prospects.

The top 10 in each list are very, very similar.

hmmm. Maybe collusion going on? ha!

Baseball America's list is due out Feb. 9.
Rotoworld usually comes out with one in Feb. also.

Scroll down to see the relative rankings and those
players listed in only one of the top 10 polls, so far.

BleacherBum's
1. Colby Rasmus
2. B. Hawksworth
3. Jamie Garcia
4. Bryan Anderson
5. Jon Jay
6. Adam Ottavino
7. Chris Perez
8. Daryl Jones
9. Troy Cate
10. Tyler Greene

ArRedbird's
1. Colby Rasmus
2. B. Hawksworth
3. Jaime Garcia
4. Brad Furnish
5. Brian Anderson
6. Adam Ottavino
7. Chris Perez
8. Jon Jay
9. Brendan Ryan
10. Edgar Gonzalez

Scout's
1 Colby Rasmus
2 B. Hawksworth
3 Jaime Garcia
4 Bryan Anderson
5 Adam Ottavino
6 Chris Narveson
7 Stuart Pomeranz
8 Chris Perez
9 Jon Jay
10 Nick Stavinoha

Sickels'
1. Colby Rasmus
2. Jaime Garcia
3. Jon Jay
4. Adam Ottavino
5. Bryan Anderson
6. Chris Perez
7. Cody Haerther
8. B Hawksworth
9. Tyler Greene
10. M. McCormick

Overall Top Ten
Name + Ranking by 4 lists (Bleacher, ArRed, Scout, Sickels)

Rasmus 1-1-1-1
Garcia 3-3-3-2
Hawksworth 2-2-2-8
Anderson 4-5-4-5
Ottavino 6-6-5-4
Jay 5-8-9-3
Perez 7-7-8-6
Greene 10-0-0-9
-----------------------

Listed once among Top 10
Name ---(Poll) --------Rank
Furnish (ArRedbird) -----4
Chris Narveson (Scout)- 6
Haerther (Sickels)--------7
Jones (BleacherBum)----8
Ryan (ArRedbird) --------9
Cate (BleacherBum) ----9
Stavinoha (Scout) -----10
McCormick (Sickels) ---10
Gonzalez (ArRedbird) --10

[KCardinal]

I enjoyed the lists posted above, and thought that I would add my own to the list (that I do every year). Just a few notes on some of the comments above:
- I liked Bleacher's inclusion of the VSL/DSL players. I had done this on my list as well this year. It's nice that we're actually getting some prospects from that pipeline finally.
- Looking back at BA's League Top 20 Scouting Reports, the phrase "he looks like a lumberjack out there," had more to do with Edwards' size (6"5" and 230 lbs), than his swing. Although they did mention that it is kind of long.

Here is my Top 30 for this year:

Top Prospects by Ceiling (mostly)……
1. Colby Rasmus
2. Blake Hawksworth
3. Jaime Garcia
4. Adam Ottavino
5. Bryan Anderson
6. Mark McCormick
7. Daryl Jones
8. Johnathan Edwards
9. Wilmer Alvarado
10. Jose Martinez
11. Cody Haerther
12. Nick Stavinoha
13. Tyler Herron
14. John Jay
15. Ivan Castro
16. Chris Lambert
17. Tyler Greene
18. Chris Perez
19. Mark Hamilton
20. Kenny Maiques
21. Donovan Solano
22. Blake King
23. Tommy Pham
24. Eddie Degerman
25. Trey Hearne
26. Mitch Boggs
27. Stuart Pomeranz
28. Chris Narveson
29. Adam Daniels
30. Rick Ankiel

Notes on my list:
1. I probably overanked Herron a bit, but I'm going to keep him there for now.
2. I included Ankiel still b/c, if he shows an even decent batting eye at the plate and can hit for decent average, he really could make a good outfielder (great power, speed, arm, good defensive ability). If nothing else, a very good platoon outfielder. So many people write him off for letting them down with his pitching (or lack thereof), but if he stays healthy this year, I could definitely see him making an impact. Feel free to flame me if you like though.
3. Only went 30 b/c the rest of the 40 or so guys I want to watch are too close to really rank before they get more experience.
4. If I had went farther, I would have ranked Mendoza and Rosales in the 30-40 range.

[bccran]

Don't forget that Troy Cate and Andy Cavazos were the 2 prospects mentioned by Mo at WW that are the closest to making the Cardinals.
Also, Mo was rather luke warm about Ottavino - like he was just another prospect who was on a normal track.

He did made special mention of:

Brandon Ryan (rated higher than Greene at this point)
Boggs (is rated higher on performance than Pomeranz, Lambert, Parisi, Pals, Haberer, McCormick, etc. at this point)
Dove (may have best fast ball in system behind McCormick)
Jay (may go right to Springfield)
Stavinoha (jumped right to Springfield and finally adjusted well)

The competition for OF at Memphis is going to be interesting - Ludwick,
Schumaker, Gorecki, Hearther, Ankiel, Stavinoha, Mather, Marti, etc.



I got the idea they rated Rasmus, Stavinoha, Jay, Jones, and Edwards
as true high ceiling prospects over Schumacker, Gorecki, and Haerther.

[karuso]

I still haven't heard a response to Ottavino's problems with southpaws at QC. I still don't rate him as high until he has improved his changeup so he can get them out. Mark Hamilton's defense is horrible. I see him as a DH. I did see Edwards last year, and his swing was too long, even though I love his bat. Darryl Jones is still my favorite, because he has incredible potential because of his speed and power. This year will be his make-or-break year. But the lists are pretty solid, I am going to a party at Holtzman's sisters house for her brthday. Is there any questions you would have me ask Kenny or any other former player who is there?