Top Prospect Lists

[BleacherBum593]

We're at that point in the offseason where everyone's Top Prospect Lists are starting to come out. I'll try and put my Top 40 together this week to see how they compare to the other's and yours.

I just ran across John Sickels Cards Top Prospect list today - Link - Minor League Ball :: Minor Leagues blog featuring John Sickels
A couple of surprises for people are on it. I'll list his 21, but you need to go to his site to read his comments on the players.

1. Colby Rasmus, OF
2. Jaime Garcia, LHP
3. Jon Jay, OF
4. Adam Ottavino, RHP
5. Bryan Anderson, C
6. Chris Perez, RHP
7. Cody Haerther, OF
8. Blake Hawksworth, RHP
9. Tyler Greene, SS
10. Mark McCormick, RHP
11. Chris Narveson, LHP
12. Daryl Jones, OF
13. Matt Scherer, RHP
14. Brad Furnish, LHP
15. Jon Edwards, OF
16. Blake King, RHP
17. Nick Stavinoha, OF
18. Mark Hamilton, 1B
19. Mark Worrell, RHP
20. Eddie Degerman, RHP
21. Nathan Southard, OF

Baseball Prospectus has also come out with a list. I'll see if I can run it down for us today.

[BleacherBum593]

Just a note on the above. John Sickels produces a very fine book on team's prospects every year. I would put it on the same level as Baseball America's

Now. Here's the Top 10 list from Baseball Prospectus.

1. Colby Rasmus, cf
2. Jaime Garcia, lhp
3. Adam Ottavino, rhp
4. Bryan Anderson, c
5. Daryl Jones, of
6. Chris Perez, rhp
7. Blake Hawksworth, rhp
8. Mark McCormick, rhp
9. Cody Haerther, of
10. Tyler Greene, ss

Scout.com is currently in the process of releasing their Top 40 Cards Prospects. That list should be fully completed in another 15 days, as they are releasing 1 player per day on the list.

[bccran]

Don't see how anyone can rate Garcia and Ottavino over Hawksworth.

[karuso]

I would put Tommy Pham toward the bottom of the list anyway. I don't like Ottavino so high. The higher level killed his changeup, so there is a lot of work to do for him. Lefties hit some astronomical numbers against him at A when he mover up. He is definitely a work in progress. Until Mark McCormick stays healthy I would put him down in the 20's, I just don't know if he is going to make it. I just don't like Hamilton at all because of his defence, and I agree with you about Hawkesworth. But this all just comes from seeing the lower minors, maybe those who have seen the players at the upper levels have a different perspective

[bccran]

The players who played in their respective league's all-star game this year were as follows:

Hawksworth
Pomeranz
Sillman
Rasmus
Worrell
Garcia
Borne
Mikrut
Anderson
Roth

Milb comes out with the top 20 prospects in each league. Here's who made it:

PCL - Reyes #13
Texas - none of our players made it.
FSL - Ramsus #6, Evans #12, Garcia #15
MW League - Rasmus #4, Garcia #7, Anderson #13
NYP - Ottavino #8, Hamilton #12
APP - Jones #6, Edwards #9, King #12, Herron #13

If I were going to put together a top 10, I would be hard pressed not to include the following:

Rasmus
Hawksworth
Garcia
Perez
Jay
Greene
Anderson
Jones
Edwards
King

[BleacherBum593]

Cranny - I agree with you on Hawksworth over Ottavino. But, I might be able to make a case for Jaime Garcia based on his age and the level of competition that he has faced to seed him above the Hawk. It would be very close. Toss up?

Tyler Greene - why would you rate him in the top 10? I'm inclined to lower him based on the fact that he has been unable to hit in the FSL over parts of the last 2 seasons. Will the progress that he made at Quad Cities get him on the right track in 2007?

[vegasjim]

Like reading Sickels' stuff a lot - but with him including Scherer and Southland and excluding Pomeranz and Boggs - makes me wonder if he did his homework this time around.

It is taking time, but you really are starting to see depth develop in the organization. Guys in that 10-20 ranking areas are the type of players we would have been talking about in the 5-10 range in previous years.

Regarding Greene, if he does not hit this year I think he will fall off quickly in the top prospect rankings. It will be an important year for the guy.

Jim

[bccran]

Bleacher -

People forget that he was drafted in 2005. In his first 3 months of pro ball they bumped him all the way up to Palm Beach. In his first full season of pro ball this year, he (along with Rasmus) had the best combination of power and speed in our system. We need to give the kid a break - and some time to mature as a professional.

2006 stats -

AB - 491
HRs - 20
SB - 33
OBP - .340

[BleacherBum593]

I've started working on my 40 man list today. I've done some preliminary work and decided to use the following standard to exclude players with some MLB experience. 50 AB's/ 50 IP.

Using that standard, Reyes, Wainwright, Thompson were excluded from the pitching ranks and Duncan, J-Rod & Schumaker were excluded from the positional player rankings.

Cranny - your right about Greene. Patience is needed. I remember everyone writing off Duncan early in his career as he bounced from Peoria to Potomac and back to Peoria, but look at the damage he did in the 2nd half of 2006 for the Cards.

[bccran]

Bleacher -

You mentioning Peoria brings back some memories of games and after game establishments there. Should we plan a trip to the Quads this year and check it out? Anyone on this board know the Quad City area?

[BleacherBum593]

Quad Cities trip would be fine with me.
I'm going down to Memphis for my birthday to see 2 games - the Cards-Redbirds exhibition game, plus the Cards-Indians exhibition game (Civil Rights Game). The only other trip I've got planned for next summer is the final weekend of the year in Pittsburgh.

I've got the # for the guy who does the broadcasting for Quad Cities, I'll see if he can give us some info on the QC area.

[BleacherBum593]

My first run thru the Cards minor league organization netted me 86 players to look further at.

[karuso]

Someone I find really interesting is Edwards. I don't know if you all have seen the rookie leagues play, I saw 4 games last year. But this guy is all of 6-5, 230 and looks bigger. The only problem I saw is that he was called "lumberjack" by another team's manager. To me, that means there are holes in his swing in spite of his average. Could this create problems later on. Possibly. I don't go only by statistics, you are right about Tyler. One thing I look at in the rookie leagues is many of them are 3 year projects, especially Pham and Darryl Jones, who are my favorites. In the third year they are expected to make it or break it. Jones has star talent, both sprinter speed and light pole power. He will be in his third year, which means we will know where he stands this year. Tommy will be in his 2nd year, which means if he plays according to form he will be a top 10 prospect in a rookie league. That is how I look at many of the 18-year olds. College players are different such as Greene and Jay. They are expected to produce immediately, and we can see more in statistics. If Pham has a good year this year, I will be happy, because that means he is making progress. We need our leadoff hitter of the future, which we hope will be Pham, with great speed and a defense right now that is spectacular but with mental mistakes being made. That is a 18-year old for you.

[ArRedbird]

I've got to add ss Brendan Ryan
to the top 10 after his success in AFL.

Staying healthy may be the only thing holding him back.

And l'll also add LH reliever Troy Cate to the top 15.
I can see him moving up rather fast should anything happen to our
other left-handed relievers.

[vegasjim]

Bleacher do not forget to consider this kid - it appears he is performing the best out of the recent investment in revising the Latin program.



Alvarado, Wilmer C/3B DOB: 2/8/88 stats from this winter's Paralela league

avg/gp-gs/ab/r/h/2b/3b/hr/rbi/tb/slg%/bb/hbp/so/gdp/ob%

.306/49-49/183/20/56/11/0/8/36/91/.497/18/6/24/3/.382

If I recall the kid had a pretty good summer in the VSL also.

Here is a quote from Luhnow about him last winter:

Wilmer Alvarado. Alvarado is a right-handed third base/catcher from Venezuela. What will carry him is his bat. He led our team in home runs and RBI in the Parallel League, after leading our team in RBI this summer in the DSL. He projects to be an everyday third baseman, middle of the lineup type of guy. At this point, the sky is the limit for him.

Link is his stat page from milb:

Minor League Baseball: Stats: Player