Team Spotlight: St. Louis Cardinals

Heltonfan · 11-18-2007, 11:53 PM

The Cardinals won only 78 games this year, and they’re not getting any younger. It’s going to be very tough for them to climb into contention in 2008.

Summary Statistics
Rotation: -43
Bullpen: -22
Lineup: -39
Bench: -8
Defense: +19
W-L record: 71-91

Rotation

Wainwright 4.19
Looper 4.83
Reyes 4.71
Pineiro 4.84
Wellemeyer 5.07

Wainwright had a great second half; I think he’s a good bet to beat that projection (I’d guess 3.80 or so). But he’s the only guy here who Cards fans can really get excited about. $13 million for two years of Joel Pineiro was an overpay even in this market.

Anthony Reyes was lousy across the board this year: didn’t strike many people out, didn’t throw enough strikes, and got hit hard. He’s firmly established himself as a failed prospect.

If you're looking for a simple reason why this rotation projects so poorly, here it is: four of these guys have spent significant time as relievers in recent years. Looper, Pineiro, and Wellemeyer's relief performances suggest that they should be horrible starters.

Bullpen

Flores 3.80
Springer 4.06
Isringhausen 4.50
Franklin 4.61
Johnson 4.63
Falkenborg 4.74
Jimenez 4.88

Wow, do the projections ever hate this bullpen. Springer had a 2.73 FIP this year. Isringhausen had a 3.57 FIP, 2.36 ERC – and he has a long history of extremely low BABIPs, so that’s no fluke. Ryan Franklin had a 3.80 FIP. But they’re all projected to crash and burn in ’08, because they’re old and have very mixed track records (Izzy’s rotten 2006 season is absolutely killing his projection – he’d be almost a full run lower if we threw it out).

So there’s certainly hope for the Cards’ bullpen to obliterate their projections. But even if we give Izzy, Springer, and Franklin the benefit of the doubt, the pen is awfully thin. Plenty of work to be done here.

Lineup

C: Molina 1.26 (.227, 8)
1B: Pujols 6.43 (.345, 2)
2B: Kennedy -0.43 (.222, -1)
SS: Ryan -0.13 (.227, -5)
3B: Rolen 2.17 (.251, 10)
LF: Duncan 1.68 (.274, -4)
CF: Edmonds 1.28 (.248, 1)
RF: Ankiel 0.62 (.249, 1)

Wow, is that ever a terrible middle infield. Kennedy isn’t nearly as bad as his ’07 numbers – he had just a .239 BABIP this year – but it’s still awfully tough to see him as anything more than replacement level. Brendan Ryan put together 200 solid plate appearances in the big leagues, but his .272/.325/.341 line in AAA tells us that he’s a marginal prospect, nothing more.

Ankiel is an incredible story, HGH or no HGH. That projection is being dragged down by his poor 2005 numbers; I think he’s got a fair chance to be a league-average hitter.

Bench

Bennett .187
Miles .219
Spiezio .250
Schumaker .236
Ludwick .248

If I Were in Charge, I Would: Make a few additions, but nothing major. The Cardinals’ situation is reminiscent of San Francisco’s, albeit not nearly as desperate; they’re in bad shape for 2008, and they can’t really rebuild because they don’t have any tradeable assets, save two guys (Pujols and Wainwright) who they should be building around rather than getting rid of.

So, with that in mind, they simply have to hope that Wainwright sustains his second-half breakout, Edmonds and Rolen have bounceback seasons, and their veteran relievers perform closer to their ’07 level than to their projected level. If all that happens, this roster would win 79 games or so. Add some affordable rotation depth (read: no multi-year contracts)… bring back Percival if he wants to play another year… bring in an Elmer Dessens type… find an undervalued shortstop in trade (I’d go after Maicer Izturis or Jeff Keppinger)… and maybe we’re looking at 83-84 wins. That’s the best I can do. There’s just not a whole lot to work with here.

11-18-2007, 11:53 PM	#1 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 855	Team Spotlight: St. Louis Cardinals The Cardinals won only 78 games this year, and they’re not getting any younger. It’s going to be very tough for them to climb into contention in 2008. Summary Statistics Rotation: -43 Bullpen: -22 Lineup: -39 Bench: -8 Defense: +19 W-L record: 71-91 Rotation Wainwright 4.19 Looper 4.83 Reyes 4.71 Pineiro 4.84 Wellemeyer 5.07 Wainwright had a great second half; I think he’s a good bet to beat that projection (I’d guess 3.80 or so). But he’s the only guy here who Cards fans can really get excited about. $13 million for two years of Joel Pineiro was an overpay even in this market. Anthony Reyes was lousy across the board this year: didn’t strike many people out, didn’t throw enough strikes, and got hit hard. He’s firmly established himself as a failed prospect. If you're looking for a simple reason why this rotation projects so poorly, here it is: four of these guys have spent significant time as relievers in recent years. Looper, Pineiro, and Wellemeyer's relief performances suggest that they should be horrible starters. Bullpen Flores 3.80 Springer 4.06 Isringhausen 4.50 Franklin 4.61 Johnson 4.63 Falkenborg 4.74 Jimenez 4.88 Wow, do the projections ever hate this bullpen. Springer had a 2.73 FIP this year. Isringhausen had a 3.57 FIP, 2.36 ERC – and he has a long history of extremely low BABIPs, so that’s no fluke. Ryan Franklin had a 3.80 FIP. But they’re all projected to crash and burn in ’08, because they’re old and have very mixed track records (Izzy’s rotten 2006 season is absolutely killing his projection – he’d be almost a full run lower if we threw it out). So there’s certainly hope for the Cards’ bullpen to obliterate their projections. But even if we give Izzy, Springer, and Franklin the benefit of the doubt, the pen is awfully thin. Plenty of work to be done here. Lineup C: Molina 1.26 (.227, 8) 1B: Pujols 6.43 (.345, 2) 2B: Kennedy -0.43 (.222, -1) SS: Ryan -0.13 (.227, -5) 3B: Rolen 2.17 (.251, 10) LF: Duncan 1.68 (.274, -4) CF: Edmonds 1.28 (.248, 1) RF: Ankiel 0.62 (.249, 1) Wow, is that ever a terrible middle infield. Kennedy isn’t nearly as bad as his ’07 numbers – he had just a .239 BABIP this year – but it’s still awfully tough to see him as anything more than replacement level. Brendan Ryan put together 200 solid plate appearances in the big leagues, but his .272/.325/.341 line in AAA tells us that he’s a marginal prospect, nothing more. Ankiel is an incredible story, HGH or no HGH. That projection is being dragged down by his poor 2005 numbers; I think he’s got a fair chance to be a league-average hitter. Bench Bennett .187 Miles .219 Spiezio .250 Schumaker .236 Ludwick .248 If I Were in Charge, I Would: Make a few additions, but nothing major. The Cardinals’ situation is reminiscent of San Francisco’s, albeit not nearly as desperate; they’re in bad shape for 2008, and they can’t really rebuild because they don’t have any tradeable assets, save two guys (Pujols and Wainwright) who they should be building around rather than getting rid of. So, with that in mind, they simply have to hope that Wainwright sustains his second-half breakout, Edmonds and Rolen have bounceback seasons, and their veteran relievers perform closer to their ’07 level than to their projected level. If all that happens, this roster would win 79 games or so. Add some affordable rotation depth (read: no multi-year contracts)… bring back Percival if he wants to play another year… bring in an Elmer Dessens type… find an undervalued shortstop in trade (I’d go after Maicer Izturis or Jeff Keppinger)… and maybe we’re looking at 83-84 wins. That’s the best I can do. There’s just not a whole lot to work with here.