Slumping or declining Raul Ibanez?

djwhokid · July 19th, 2007, 07:28 PM

Current OPS: .722
Career OPS: .805

Current SLG: .408
Career SLG: .464

Current OBP: .314
Career OBP: .341

Current AVG: .264
Career AVG: .282

Is Raul Ibanez just slumping or on the decline? He is only projected to hit 11 HR's and drive in 104 RBI's. Last year he hit 33 HR's and drove in 123 RBI's.

Remember he is 35 years old. Two years older then Bobby Abreu who also is on the decline... or is he just struggling as well?

bedir than average · July 19th, 2007, 07:47 PM

I would tend to look deeper into the numbers to see things like splits (often a hitter shows signs of decline by performing worse against the same hand pitcher), changes in their zone judgment (K%, BB%), changes in batted ball results and changes in BABIP

Raul Ibanez Stats and Graphs - Seattle Mariners | FanGraphs

Raul is declining in BB%, BABIP, he's hitting more fly balls, and is getting a disgustingly low HR/FB, in fact so low that I don't think that will hold and Raul will start to come back. Raul though is in a three year decline v lefties.

If one does the same thing for Abreu you will not notice as sharp a decline and you will see plenty of indications that he is still a solid (though overpaid) player, when taking into account that his struggles basically start with his move to NYC one could think that he has the potential to be good again, just somewhere else.

Goose · July 19th, 2007, 08:40 PM

Ibanez is done.

He had a 2 week period around the middle of June where he was tearing the cover off the ball, highlighted by that game in Cleveland. But it's obvious that was nothing more than a fluke, as he's done NOTHING else all year long.

I honestly did not expect him to fall off the cliff till next year, but he's already done it.

I think his low HR/FB is explained by the fact that he just doesn't have the power to put those balls over the wall anymore.

At this point, I'd rather have Jones come up and replace Ibanez permanently, instead of just having him move to DH. At least Vidro is doing a somewhat respectable job of getting on base.

July 19th, 2007, 07:47 PM	#2 (permalink)
bedir than average Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Starbucks Posts: 8,258	I would tend to look deeper into the numbers to see things like splits (often a hitter shows signs of decline by performing worse against the same hand pitcher), changes in their zone judgment (K%, BB%), changes in batted ball results and changes in BABIP Raul Ibanez Stats and Graphs - Seattle Mariners \| FanGraphs Raul is declining in BB%, BABIP, he's hitting more fly balls, and is getting a disgustingly low HR/FB, in fact so low that I don't think that will hold and Raul will start to come back. Raul though is in a three year decline v lefties. If one does the same thing for Abreu you will not notice as sharp a decline and you will see plenty of indications that he is still a solid (though overpaid) player, when taking into account that his struggles basically start with his move to NYC one could think that he has the potential to be good again, just somewhere else. __________________ I'm sorry I left for a while. I needed a vaction, and then work changed substantially. I'm over 50 hour weeks, plus two hours a day of commuting time. A few weeks ago I launched my own blog about Seattle Sounders FC and Life in Puget Sound. I won't be by these parts often as my focus has changed. Sorry about the unannounced retirement.

July 19th, 2007, 08:40 PM	#3 (permalink)
Goose Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Aberdeen,Wa Posts: 1,190	Ibanez is done. He had a 2 week period around the middle of June where he was tearing the cover off the ball, highlighted by that game in Cleveland. But it's obvious that was nothing more than a fluke, as he's done NOTHING else all year long. I honestly did not expect him to fall off the cliff till next year, but he's already done it. I think his low HR/FB is explained by the fact that he just doesn't have the power to put those balls over the wall anymore. At this point, I'd rather have Jones come up and replace Ibanez permanently, instead of just having him move to DH. At least Vidro is doing a somewhat respectable job of getting on base. __________________ http://img74.imageshack.us/img74/843...idensigfd9.png