Ichiro and Mariners

[bedir than average]

BadLeadoffHitter ties the club record for consecutive games with a hit at 24 with a single in the first.

[bedir than average]

Statistically Speaking | MVN - Most Valuable Network » Blog Archive » Why Bill Stoneman is smarter than I am

Chone does some nice work on who the best players have been this year.

Ichiro is the seventh best this year

The next best Mariner is 35th

[bedir than average]

Now, oddly enough Ichiro has left tens of millions of dollars a year on the table. That in cash from US endorsements, and yet still he basically makes his salary in endorsements back in Japan.

He ranks 6th in international stars, and would have ranked 21st if international and north american stars were listed on the same chart.

Ichiro doesn't need money, and there is strong evidence that it isn't just about the money for him.

He is being estimated in the 15-20M$ per year range. Likely from 4-7 years.

But even Ted Miller believes, but doesn't provide evidence, that Ichiro generates more revenue than he costs.

Moreover, Ichiro is one of those rare players who generates revenue that helps pay for his contract. It's not easy to quantify, but the clutch of Japanese reporters who continue to cover him full-time testifies to his unwavering international appeal.

If the Mariners wind up paying him 20M$ per for 4 years and none of that money comes out of non-Ichiro revenues, and he continues to build on his endorsement deals, why would he sign somewhere else?

That answer is fairly easy, this isn't about the money.

[djwhokid]

Given the Mariners difficult situation (we are in contention but clearly a step below the Angels) I believe we need to trade Ichiro, but we need players that could make a impact soon.

I don't believe the Mariners will be able to re-sign Ichiro ($15-20 million per season) so what about a trade involving Lastings Milledge and Mike Pelfrey?

IMO if we can get a package of Milledge and Pelfrey, we should do it.

THe Dodgers would be another good fit. I wouldn't mind Matt Kemp, Hong-Chih Kuo, and Scott Elbert.

The Giants and Padres wouldn't be bad fits for Ichiro but they are seriously lacking in the good prospects department.

[bedir than average]

That's what I'm hoping for is a team that seems capable of winning the Wild Card giving up

[Timberwolf]

Trading our marquee player for guys that half the people who actually buy tickets have never heard of is a great way of further tarnishing the Mariner brand name. (George Argyros does it again).

If this season was going down the toilet and we were where Texas is, you'd have to bite the bullet and do something unpopular. Stripping the team does not make us more attractive to free agents.

[Wiggen]

NO criticism of Ichiro permitted on this board without ridicule and condescension. Ichiro is untouchable. If it takes $50 million dollars a season, he must be re-signed, because he is a baseball God. Pujols? BAh, humbug! Guerrero? A piker compared to our singles-hitting machine!

Just repeat the mantra - Ichiro is God, there is no player but Ichiro, etc. etc.

Over and over again.

And when all else fails, bring out the "We need him because of all that money he generates", as if nobody would go to a baseball game in Seattle if Ichiro wasn't playing.

He is not a superstar. He's a very good player. This team has had superstars, and he ain't one.

Go ahead Bedir, I've given you all kinds of material to ridicule. It seems that's your style these days. Some more 'lousy lead-off hitter' remarks would, I'm sure, be lapped up by the sycophants out there.

[RotatorCuff]

Excellent post Wiggen.

[bedir than average]

I have offered counters to you in the past. You bring up nothing new. You aren't willing to deal in facts when it comes to Ichiro, sadly.

[bedir than average]

You will note that Ichiro currently is producing (ala Runs Created per 27 outs) at a greater rate than any other season.

When judged by batting average he is third in the majors (before today's 3-4 and going game) and when judged by onbase the only tablesetter style batters who are better are Jose Reyes (403) and Derek Jeter (421) vs 402.

If Ichiro is a bad leadoff hitter, there should be some evidence.

You are right by the way on his Pitches per Plate Appearence, he's 11th of 19 qualified leadoff hitters.

[bedir than average]

Understanding Ichiro | KOMO 1000 News Radio - News, Weather and Sports - Seattle, WA Seattle, Washington | Headlines

On the chances of Ichiro going or staying, along with some insight as to who he is. I'll give us the close, rather than open

These are all small things in the grand picture of just what is Ichiro thinking regarding his future. The only thing I can say is that I like what I am seeing. In the simplest terms, he just seems more comfortable right now. I correspond with a reader in Japan. He gives me a gloomier outlook telling me that the consensus among the media there is that Ichiro will leave. The feeling is that Ichiro, like any superstar wants a championship. He has seen Iguchi win one, Matsui come close and Matsuzaka well on his way to one.

Despite his desires, tradition may play a role in keeping him in Seattle. His relationship with the Nintendo owner Mr. Yamauchi will make it extremely hard for him to move to a different team unless he is given permission, my reader points out. It is a very Japanese thing to feel obligation to an older person who has helped one's career.

There is one way to make this easier. Win ballgames. Ichiro seems to be a much better fit on a winning ball club. Let’s hope the Mariners are one.

[Timberwolf]

There are players I would gladly trade Ichiro for, but if I am going to engage in wishful thinking, why trade Ichiro for Pujols when I can fantasize about getting him for Bloomquist and Mateo?

The facts are very simple, Ichiro is a premium player and he has more value in Seattle than anywhere else because of his ethnicity, geography and history.

A team in the upper half of payroll doesn't make white flag deals when the team is still arguably in contention. Another couple of weeks like this one and we won't need to worry about that.

[bedir than average]

Cameron analyzed the last seven years worth of deals of players even close to Ichiro's talent level and compared those that were dealt to those that were retained and lost for draft pick compensation.

U.S.S. Mariner » Blog Archive » Letting Ichiro Leave For Nothing

If trading the AllStar level talent this is what you get back

Over the last seven years, the prospects coming back for rental players have had a 1 in 20 chance of turning into an all-star, a 1 in 5 chance of being a solid player, and a 4 in 5 chance of flaming out

The draft pick compensation?

But, the evidence is clear - the expected return by trading an all-star in the last year of his contract is not any higher than the expected return of letting that player walk at the end of the season and collecting two draft picks as compensation. The Trade Ichiro brigade are living on a false premise. The organization will not be any better off by dealing Ichiro in July than they would be if he left in October of his own free will.

When you factor in the added value of still having Ichiro on the team in August and September, the exclusive two week negotiating window that the team would have with him at the end of the season, and the actual chance (no matter how slim you think it is) that he might re-sign with the team, and the best path is astoundingly clear.

This decision should be made rationally, based on a cost/benefit analysis, not the emotional Ichiro is a Bad Leadoff Hitter idea, nor on the idea that whenever a talent like that is dealt you get studs back.

THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Tango covers the Cameron post and comes to a sadder conclusion.

In the end, dropping Ichiro means that you lose him for two months and you lose the two draft picks (one a bust, and one who may be ok), in return for three players, two of which will be a bust, and one of which may turn out ok.

Pick your poison.

Both are coming to the same conclusion that I have been advocating, you don't get better by getting worse.

[bedir than average]

Ichiro is on pace to have his best season ever

The Official Site of The Seattle Mariners: News: Seattle Mariners News

SEATTLE -- What might be lost amid the anticipation over the return of former Mariners center fielder Ken Griffey Jr. is the fact that the Mariners' current center fielder potentially is having a season unlike any other.
Ichiro Suzuki, who set the single-season hit record with 262 in 2004, is actually well ahead of that pace. Through 69 games entering Friday's game against Cincinnati, Ichiro had 105 hits. He had just 97 hits through 69 games in 2004 when he broke George Sisler's 84-year-old record for hits in a season.

Article is a touch misleading as he's beating his at the time pace from that season, but he currently projects the following line

358 (2)/410 (2)/466 (1) with 245 hits (2), 25 doubles (4), 7 triples (6), 86 RBI (1), 120 Runs (2) and 51 SB (2)

In less traditional stats he currently is seeing more pitches per AB than ever befor, is walking at his second best rate, and one less total bases than his record setting year.

Sure, he may not be the best player in the league, but he's without a doubt the best player on this team.

I still don't know how anyone looking at this situation rationally thinks that the 2008 and 2009 seasons aren't better with him on the team than off of it.

[bedir than average]

Ichiro has his average up to .370 and is tied with Magglio for the batting average title.