Why is Gil Meche good?

[bedir than average]

As a Mariner fan I have been having this converstaion with a few people lately.

We are all wondering why Gil seems to be the good Gil that we would only get to see every third or fourth start. What has he done to turn it around?

I know it is still early, but at this rate MrMeche will earn this year's contract.

My argument has been that the lesser pressure of playing in a smaller market with lower expectations than the Mariners might have freed Meche from forcing himself to be something that he's not (an Ace) and instead has allowed him the freedom to just pitch, not nibble.

Others have argued that what has turned him around is that he is now comfortable knowing that he has a long term deal, something that he never had with the Mariners.

So what has changed about Gil Meche?

[bedir than average]

Gil Meche Stats and Graphs - Kansas City Royals | FanGraphs

Looking at Meche so far this year we see a 4GS, 28IP guy with a 2.22 ERA.

When we look deeper though we notice some intriguing statistics.

He has his highest ever, and by far, K/BB at 3.00. A pitcher that puts up a full season at that rate is going to be incredible, especially if they are having a career best in the BB/9 and near best K/9.

But Gil has done something else in these four starts, something that makes his good initial peripherals look GREAT. His LOB% (strand rate) is 81%, 10% higher than his career average and well better than league average.

When you only put 1.20 batters on base per inning, have a better than league average K/9 and follow that up by stranding almost all of the rare runners one winds up with an amazing collection of starts.

Why is his LOB% that high? Well, Gil is doing something to cause more Grounders. His LD/GB/FB% is 16/52/32. Gil has four starts so far that indicate that he seems to have either learned a new pitch (sinker, improved dive on a two seamer) or new technique (keeping the ball down more).

There are early indications that Gil Meche has reinvented himself. One wonders if he could have done this staying a Mariner, but there is no doubt that he would be a Schilling to Felix' Johnson if he'd stayed and done this.

[The Iceman Cometh]

With a disclaimer that I haven't actually SEEN Gil pitch this year, I must say I'm rather skeptical.

If he did indeed add a new pitch or suddenly master a two-seamer then I could see this as being a legitimate step up; however, I feel I've seen this episode before. In fact, we saw 1/2 a season of great pitching from Meche a few years ago.

Based on you description, I'd expect his BB's to increase some and his LOB% to regress back towards normalcy. Still, I think the previous factors mentioned (less pressure, big deal, smaller market) could be postive factors for Meche.

[Goose]

This thread should be retitled "Why is Gil Meche on a hot streak?"

[bedir than average]

The "hot streak" is now at 5 games, or 1/6 of his season.

Gil Meche Stats and Graphs - Kansas City Royals | FanGraphs

His last start was 7 IP with 6ER, 1HR given up, notable though is the following LD/GB/FB rates for the last start

3/19/4

19 grounders? from Meche?
He increased his GB% to 57% from 52% in one start.

With the Mariners average offense and the mariners average relief performances Gil Meche have 3 or 4 wins and only one loss.

[The Iceman Cometh]

Meche's starts from 6/5/06 - 6/29/06:

7 IP, 1ER, 6K, 2 BB ; 9/5 GB/FB
5 IP, 2ER, 3K, 4BB ; 2/13 GB/FB
9 IP, 1ER, 7K, 1BB ; 12/10 GB/FB
5.2IP, 1ER, 6K, 2BB ; 4/8 GB/FB
7IP, 1ER, 4K, 1BB ; 15/5 GB/FB

This the best stretch of ball for Meche last year. Note that in 3 of these games the majority of outs are via groundball, with one extreme-flyball performance (5IP, 2ER) and one strong-flyball performance. Which leads me to wonder how his GB/FB ratio correlated with his performance overall....

[bedir than average]

well, almost every pitcher does better with a better GB/FB ratio.

But it is notable that his worst GB performance this year is 10GB to 12FB. He's pitching deeper than his best stretch last year, more grounders, more Ks, and less BB.

When does a hot start become a changed pitcher?

[The Iceman Cometh]

In 2006 Gil had 18 groundball-dominant games and 11 flyball-dominant games (with 3 even-ratio games). Here are the splits:

FB Games: 6-1 3.56 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
GB Games: 5-5 4.35 ERA, 1.43 WHIP
Even Games: 0-2 5.56 ERA, 2.56 WHIP

FB Games: 8.50 K/9, 3.15 BB/9, 13.43 FB / 7.81GB / 4.11LD.
GB Games: 7.14 K/9, 3.94 BB/9, 7.80 FB / 13.29 GB / 5.58 LD
Even Games: 5.56 K/9, 10.32 BB/9, 15.09 FB / 15.09 GB / 4.00 LD

FB Games: 5 of 11 Quality Starts; Gave up more than 3ER twice.
GB Games: 10 of 18 Quality Starts; Gave up more than 3ER six times
Even Games: 3 Awful Starts

Oddly enough… Meche WAS a groundball pitcher frequently last year... and not a great one either. He appears to have been at his best with FB tendencies.

[Goose]

Originally Posted by bedir than average

When does a hot start become a changed pitcher?

For Meche? In July, of 2008.

[lastexit]

you sadistic *******s should look the other way.

[djwhokid]

Gil Meche has the pure stuff, for him its inconsistency. His curve ball is one of the best in baseball, 90 MPH fast ball, etc...

Remember, Jason Schmidt was a pretty inconsistent in Pittsburgh when he started his career, so was Oliver Perez.

He's only 28, so he can still get better.