Brandon Morrow's Spring

[Chris]

This guy hasn't let up a run yet, has been striking people out and giving up very few hits.

Maybe this was a smart pick?

[bedir than average]

The Official Site of The Seattle Mariners: News: Seattle Mariners News

Five scoreless now

Cameron saw him today and should have something up later tonight.

[Goose]

As promised. Cameron's notes on Morrow and others.

1. Brandon Morrow looked tremendous in Mesa against the Cubs. Perhaps some of it was coming in to relieve Cha Baek, who looked as bad as I expected, but he showed the power arsenal that got him selected #5 overall last summer. In his first inning of work, against the bottom of the line-up, the breaking ball was pretty slurvy and didn’t have much bite, but his fastball was overpowering. He pitched almost exclusively on the outside corner to both sides, Tom Glavine style, but it worked to perfection because the bottom of the Cubs order sucks.

During his second inning, against the meat of the Cubs line-up, he showed a real understanding of setting up hitters. He suckered Soriano with a fastball out of the zone early, then just busted off breaking balls out of the zone to induce a weak chopper. He then continued throwing harder, biting breaking balls to Jacque Jones, Derek Lee, and Aramis Ramirez. The slurviness of the last inning was gone, and his second inning breaking ball (honestly, I don’t know if it was a curve or a slider) was very tight and dove hard, making it a great out pitch to go with his mid-90s fastball.

This is the kind of outing that gets guys noticed in spring training. I had a brief conversation with a scout afterwards and asked him what he thought of Morrow’s appearance, and his answer was essentially “why are you guys sending him to Double-A again?” He could use the work, but I guarantee you he opened some eyes today, and with the M’s bullpen suddenly a huge question mark, Morrow has to be considered a legitimate option to join the pen at some point later this year.

Awesome.

[coachjeff]

Morrow had another strong outing today. 1 1/3 scoreless, 2 strikeouts, 1 walk. He may be closer to the big leagues than anyone assumed, as the article in the PI indicates. I would still send him to AA to get him regular work, but he may be one of the first call ups if someone falters. Much like Lowe last year -- straight to the big club from AA.

On the other hand, Sherrill has looked awful this spring. He was shelled again today, giving up 2 doubles and a homer. His spring ERA is now 18.00. If he doesn't watch out, he will have pitched himself out of a job. Rhodes, Feirabend and O'Flaherty are all options and have outperformed Sherrill this spring. My bet is that Sherrill goes north on a very short leash.

[Goose]

One thing to remember with Sherrill is that he has never had a good spring. He's always sucked in March, so I wouldn't put much stock into it.

Bavasi apparently said today in the booth that Morrow's chances of making the club are pretty good.

I'm really on the fence about this issue. On the one hand, we've heard that Scouts are saying that they'd be shocked if the Mariners put him anywhere below AAA and if he were to pitch out of the M's pen this year he could really make it stronger, and could maybe take over for JJ should he be on the shelf.

On the other hand, he didn't pitch much last year, and hasn't pitched about A ball. So this could be another example of rushing a prospect before he is ready. He also hasn't had much of a chance to stretch out his arm and this could hurt his development in becoming our #2.

[coachjeff]

I agree about stretching out Morrow. He hasn't pitched many innings in ST -- all short relief stints. Morrow's value is not as a reliever, but as a starter. Put him in AA and stretch his arm out. If one of the starters falters, Morrow is a better bet than Baek or anyone else at Tacoma.

Making decisions based on less than 8 innings of work is a classic rush to judgment. If he continues to throw 97 and get hitters out at AA, he can make the jump from there. Similar to Verlander with the Tigers.

[bedir than average]

4 appearances and 6 1/3 innings isn't short appearences for a guy who seems likely to make the big league roster.

[coachjeff]

Don't get me wrong. Morrow has been brilliant in his four outings. But it is a very small sample size and he has not been extended past 2 innings. I see more value in the long term with Morrow as a starter than as a 1 -2 inning guy in the pen. Unfortunately, the management doesn't have the luxury of developing a pitcher along normal tracks because jobs are on the line and they must win now at all costs.

When I was thinking about how Morrow will fit in the pen, my initial reaction is that it would stunt his development as a starter. Thinking about it more, however, there is value if he would essentially replace Mark Lowe as a 7th or 8th inning guy to deliver the game to JJ Putz. If he is added to the mix in that role, he is the answer to the bullpen questions created by the Soriano trade. But Morrow should be added to the pen only if he is clearly better than Mateo and Reitsma in that role. I don't want to see him passed over by Hargrove in favor of the veterans, as is Grover's tendency. Likewise, mopping up in long relief would be a waste, both of Morrow's talent and his service time.

IMO, the best alternative is to let him gain experience and arm strength by starting, even if it is in AA. I still think that the long term plan should be for him to start, maybe replacing Weaver next year, or coming up later this season if someone falters. If he can help the big club now, as a key bullpen piece or as a starter in waiting, fine. It just seems very risky with a 1st year pitcher.

[The Iceman Cometh]

I'll admit, if they put him in the pen it WILL add a little excitement to the beginning of the season for me. Unfortunately, it's just the complete wrong move, both long-term and short-term.

Right now the depth chart for starters probably goes something like Woods/Feierabend/Baek/Blackley----- Morrow could jump all those guys with an impressive first half at AA.

I don't know about you, but I'd rather call up a power-arm teams haven't seen to fill an injured Weaver/Batista's spot in the rotation late in the season.

[bedir than average]

Well, nobody is saying for certain, but from a conversation I had Monday with GM Bill Bavasi, and comments he made during our Mariner broadcast on KOMO 1000 News, first-round draft choice Brandon Morrow is a pretty good bet to make the 25-man roster that opens the season in Seattle April 2nd.

Bill told me that he thinks, despite the fact that they ultimately see him as a starter, that Morrow fill the "power arm" role they've been seeking to fill in the bullpen. With a fastball that clocked as high as 98 the other night, and averaged about 96, I guess that would qualify as a "power arm".

KOMOradio.com - Seattle, Washington - Headlines - Morrow Makes Case for 25 Man Roster

This was a primary topic on the Tuesday Night Spring Training show. It sounds as if his useage will be in high leverage situations, one can also note that he's facing real Major Leaguers and doing well with it.

[Goose]

No sir, I don't like it.

I've decided that it's not a good idea. He needs to be stretched out. He needs to get some starts under his belt first. If they want to break him in the bullpen next year, then fine. But I don't think it's a good idea this year.

[bedir than average]

Goose, I really think that this decision comes back to valuation of relievers versus starters, and what a number two/three like Morrow can do year in and out.

If the team sees Morrow as able to be even close to Pappelbon's performance even if not in the Closer role, but as a Soriano or full season Mark Lowe while not really harming his chances to become a number three what is the down side? One or two seasons as an Ace Reliever who slides into the Number Three is a GREAT draft pick.

They are likely weighing this versus the valuation of a slower development curve with a higher peak as a Number Two. That decision might involve a year in AA, a year in AAA with a late callup and then a year as a Back End Rotation guy and then his emergence as a TOR.

The first option gets Morrow on the Major League team earlier. This means he will be peaking during his arbitration years but they will get him at good value when his club control years are as a reliever. With the second option he will be peaking during club control but as a college player the club will have him post peak in arbitration. Which has more value to an organization?

Myself, I am not a fan per se of prospects but of guys who are helping the Major League club WIN. I see Morrow as the next Papplebon, and though he might not be that good, he has the instincts and the talent to be an Ace Reliever who becomes a MOR starter.

Morrow, this year, as an Ace Reliever shores up the second largest question mark this club has. Morrow next year as a developing MOR starter is part of the largest question mark the club has.

Classifying Starting Pitchers

[Goose]

If Morrow's situation was similar to Papelbon's, I would be all for it, but it's not.

Papelbon had 48 starts in the minors before making his big league debut. Raffy had 68 starts. Lowe had 27.

I say he needs AT LEAST 20 starts in the minors first.

[bedir than average]

But Morrow had how many college starts versus each of those guys? To ignore Brandon's success in college ignores that he is already older than Soriano, and I think Lowe as well.

Soriano had a 2.43 WPA last year. He's a non-closer Ace Reliever

The Dodgers Number Three last year was either Chad Billingsley (.78) or Brad Penny (.72)

The Dodgers had a decent pitching staff and a decent record last year so their number three as a MOR judge should be a good eyeball. Let's even say a MOR guy gets a 1 WPA. Due to leverage a properly used non-Closer Ace Reliever can be twice as valuable in the wins and losses.

Eyeballing WPA for TOR I would say 1.5-2.5 with True Aces getting more than 2.5 consistently.

[Goose]

Lowe and Soriano are both older than Morrow, but Soriano was the same age when he made his debut.

Lowe only had 6 starts in college. Raffy obviously never was in college.

However, college innings are not the same as minor league innings. Minor league innings are designed specifically to develop a player. College innings are not.