A Bedir Plan for 2007

[JasonAChurchill]

The M's have offered Jason Schmidt 4 and 45 and Schmidt's camp has yet to answer. Some baseball people are expecting 5 and 65 for Schmidt, but I don't think it gets quite that far in money.

Mulder is apparently trying to stay in the NL.

Coco Crisp? Why would Crisp make any sense for the M's at ANY position? The club needs offense, not defense.

Sure, Raul is below average in left and he needs to be DH'ing, at least most of the time. But that doesn't mean the club should be after a defensive upgrade. They should be after the best offensive outfielder they can get, and hopefully he's above average in the field, which is a total bonus.

At worst, Raul plays left again, and while that is undesirable, it's not the worst thing in the world, especially if the addition is worthy of the middle of the lineup.

[RotatorCuff]

I don't want Schmidt. You have to overpay to get him and that does not interest me.

[Lamda]

well Jason and the people in-the-know would know better than I but it appears to me that a possible M's plan is to get Igawa via the posting process and then sign their other pitching target at the winter meetings. IF that is their plan then their actions to date make sense. And it's not unwise to wait and see what market develops for Schmidt if that is their primary target. No sense in spending more money than you have to if you can avoid it - especially when you find yourself with multiple holes to fill.

[Lamda]

why RC? That's a lot better offer for us to swallow than I thought we'd have to pay. I doubt he'll accept that but if he does - cool. I figured we'd be like 4/56 to sign him.

[Slica]

I would think that should Jason's information be true, its an offer to make JS think while we test Igawa. I really doubt that was a serious offer...probably more like a very good starting point.

Perhaps the Mariners are smarter than their IQ suggests...

[Lamda]

with the M's I think that might be their one/only offer. They don't seem to up their offers a whole lot - but make one and then expect the FA to take it, if not they claim it's too much and move on.

[Goose]

Unlike Hicks who would make an offer, then forget he was the one that made the offer, then make a higher offer in an attempt to outbid the original offer than he made.

[Slica]

Originally Posted by Lamda

with the M's I think that might be their one/only offer. They don't seem to up their offers a whole lot - but make one and then expect the FA to take it, if not they claim it's too much and move on.

Well thats somewhat what I am thinking. Its good enough to think over, but wont make him jump to sign it. The M's prolly wouldn't up it much, like you said.

Usually I wouldnt make anything over a starting bid, but this one is pretty curious. Maybe they are scared they may lose him in the next few days, while they chase Igawa...so they used this to keep him occupied? Then again, I might be giving them too much credit.

Very interesting figures though, especially in this market. I love Juan Pierre, but even I wouldnt dare pay half of what he got.

[The Iceman Cometh]

I can live with 4 and 45 for Schmidt... but man does he scare me healthwise. Adding a 5th year would be tough to swallow.

A Schmidt and Igawa offseason alone would make me feel a hell of a lot better about our club.

[JasonAChurchill]

People around the league seem to think Schmidt is a slam dunk to sign in Seattle as long as the offer is competitive...

I just don't think in the end the Mariners are going to be willing to guarantee Schmidt the kind of cash he can get elsewhere, which is to say I believe, without any word on it from anywhere else, that if the 4/45 was offered, either the fourth year, or some of that money, is incentive-driven.

[bedir than average]

Jason, Coco Crisp makes sense because his years in Cleveland indicate that he is an above average offense talent who is also a great defender for LF.

His RC for the season over the last three years averages to 73. Broussards averages to 70. While that initially seems to be only a tiny improvement. Crisp is younger, has more consistent BABIP and higher than league average, had an absurdly low HR/F%, and while Crisp has hit about 3 HRs less per year on average has hit about 15 more doubles per year.

So it improves the defense greatly, the offense a bit all while getting a younger player for cheaper for the OF. And yes in 2008 if Ichiro is here Crisp would be a fine 4th OF when Jones is up. A 4th OF who is a switch hitter who can defend adequetely or better at all 3 spots.

[JasonAChurchill]

Crisp makes ZERO sense and has no business in the Seattle Mariners starting lineup. None.

The Mariners lack offense, not defense, despite Ibanez being below average in left field.

It's a ridiculous thought and I can't believe it's even come up - AGAIN.

Coco Crisp is not anywhere near being the answer. He MIGHT be average offensively, and that isn't even a sure thing.

He doesn't get on base, he doesn't run, he isn't an upgrade in any way for the M's except defensive range, and that's just not enough for him to be on the radr screen.

[bedir than average]

Jason, once again, the stats don't back you up. He is an offensive improvement over the current lineup, as his offense replaces Broussard. I am not touting him as THE answer, but an alternative to a huge talent.

His three year average for on-base is better than this team's average, his ability to steal outstrips anyone on this club not named Ichiro or Willie and he hits doubles at a greater rate than 90% of the team as well.

So compared to Ibanez+Broussard v Crisp+Ibanez, the net improvement favors the second as it is a small offensive improvement and a huge defensive improvement. That is a net gain in both Runs Scored and Runs Against. Any improvement in Run Differential is better than stability.

[JasonAChurchill]

Oh boy... Dave, this is the most ridiculous argument you have ever made. Your words suggest you are speaking of a legit bat that can hit 3-6, and even the dumbest of baseball fans know that isn't the case.

An upgrade? How can he me considered an upgrade? Oh, yeah, because you are comparing him to what Broussard did in his time with the M's.

In that case, Dave, who the hell isn't an upgrade over a guy who posted a .709 OPS in an M's uniform?

And ya know what, Crisp might be that guy... he's a switch hitter who's best gap chances are as a righty, even though he hit 7 of his 8 homers as a lefty stick last year.

But his OPS for the SEASON was .702 and he did NOT play in a pitcher's park.

The chances that Crisp either reverts back to his 05 numbers aren't very likely if he's here in Safeco, and he doesn't offer enough anywhere else in his game. He doesn't swipe bags, his defense isn't gold glove by any stretch, and his bat, at best, is below average for a CENTER FIELDER.

And he's guaranteed 10.33 more million snaps over the next two years, whereas Broussard would be on a one-year deal cia arbitration, where his ceiling salary would still be less than the 5+ that Crisp is making.

STOP ASSUMING CRISP WILL BE BETTER IN 2007 than he was in 2006, and that BEN WILL BE AS BAD AS HE WAS with the M's ALL YEAR. That's absurd and irresponsible.

So, I'll keep Broussard over giving up something of value for Crisp (yes, he'd require SOMETHING of value, Boston isn't going to give him away, money means little to them), rather than finding my lineup full of punch and judy hitters.

At least Broussard has noweher to go but UP, as far as his Safeco peformance is concerned.

Ben isn't ideal, and I'd much rather go get a real upgrade, but Crisp isn't the guy. Heck, he isn't even on the super long list of legit options that ends with Geoff Jenkins.

Coco Crisp... whatever.

I love ya, Dave, but man... is Crisp really the left fielder you want? Is he the talent the M's need?

[RotatorCuff]

Ben Broussard is a horrible player.