Looking Backward to Look Forward - A first look at 2007

[bedir than average]

Seattle Mariners 2007 Projections
Projections Say This Year’s M’s to Look Like ‘06 Club
By Dave Clark and Jason A. Churchill

The 2007 Seattle Mariners do not appear to be any better on paper than they were a year ago - at least to the naked eye. We’ve sat here all winter watching the club throw millions of dollars at mediocre pitchers and ink conservative deals to shore up an offense that needed much more than shoring up.

So the 78-win version of the Mariners is back, with a few replacements. Things don’t look so good from afar, and there is truly nothing to be excited about in the Emerald City as far as wins and losses goes… or is there?

There are several projection formulas on the market these days, many of which have been developed by some pretty strong baseball minds. Zips and Marcel are two of the more known systems, and according to each, the Seattle Mariners aren’t going to be “so freakin’ bad” this season.

The tables below are a compilation of Zips and Marcel projections for 2006, combined equally into one single projection. The projection listed is for the player that started on opening day (as well as the five starters) while the actuals include other players that played the positions last season, in order to get a full season in which to compare.

Ultimately landing just 16 points below projection displays the accuracies of the systems combined, even if either individual system is flawed in certain ways.

Thanks to Fangraphs for housing each system’s projections in one place so Dave Clark could do all the hard work without having to actually do it the hard way.

2006 Projections vs. Actuals

OD STARTER/POS.  06 PROJECTION 06 ACTUAL DIFFERENTIAL 
Ichiro/RF      .795 OPS       .778 OPS     -17 
Reed/CF        .726 OPS       .656 OPS     -70 
Beltre/3B      .798 OPS       .775 OPS     -23 
Sexson/1B      .891 OPS       .831 OPS     -60 
Ibanez/LF      .781 OPS       .871 OPS     +90 
Johjima/C      .812 OPS       .730 OPS     -82 
Lopez/2B       .711 OPS       .734 OPS    +23 
Betancourt/SS  .641 OPS       .708 OPS    +67 
Everett/DH     .735 OPS       .667 OPS    -68 
TEAM TOTALS    .765 OPS       .749 OPS    -16

As you can see, the projections systems, at least in tandem combination, were pretty accurate for the offense last season. Below is the same table for the starting rotation and bullpen.

2006 Projections vs. Actuals

STARTER  06 PROJECTION 06 ACTUAL DIFFERENTIAL 
Moyer       4.76 ERA        4.39 ERA     -27 
Meche       4.94 ERA        4.48 ERA     -46 
Washburn    4.32 ERA        4.67 ERA     +35 
Hernandez   3.51 ERA        4.52 ERA     +101 
Pineiro     4.51 ERA        6.36 ERA     +185 
ROTATION TOTALS 4.48 ERA    4.89 ERA     +51

RELIEVER  06 PROJECTION 06 ACTUAL DIFFERENTIAL 
Putz         4.61 ERA         2.3 ERA     -231 
Soriano      3.15 ERA         2.25 ERA     -90 
Sherrill     4.02 ERA         4.28 ERA     +26 
Mateo        3.89 ERA         4.19 ERA     +30 
Guardado     3.83 ERA         5.48 ERA     +165 
PEN TOTALS   3.89 ERA         3.70 ERA    -19 

The projections laid out a season in which the Mariners should have won between 83-85 games. They underachieved both offensively and on the mound, and ended up winning 78 games, which was nearly dead-on per the club’s actual performance on the field.

The purpose of the above exercise will be carried out in the below tables - the 2007 projections for the Seattle Mariners. Again, this is a combination of the ZIPS and Marcel systems.

2007 Projections

OD STARTER/POS.  07 PROJECTION BENCH 07 PROJECTION 
Suzuki, CF     .787 OPS       Bloomquist .636 OPS
Vidro, DH      .744 OPS           Rivera .636 OPS
Beltre, 3B     .816 OPS        Broussard .772 OPS
Sexson, 1B     .831 OPS            Morse .772 OPS
Ibanez, LF     .806 OPS             Reed .727 OPS
Johjima, C     .773 OPS        Burroughs .680 OPS
Lopez, 2B      .738 OPS            Jones .742 OPS
Betancourt, SS .718OPS           Clement .628 OPS
Guillen, RF    .788 OPS           LaHair .643 OPS
LINEUP TOTALS .779 OPS PT/RESERVE TOTALS .669 OPS

The offense is expected to dupe last year’s performance by 13 points, which isn’t much, but it is improvement. That is, if the club goes out and does what’s expected of them at the plate. The bench is terrible, even with Ben Broussard who is probably not going sniff a day on the roster this season as he is almost certain to be dealt by opening day.

2007 Projections

STARTER 07 PROJECTION RELIEVER 07 PROJECTION 
Hernandez       3.83 ERA       Putz 3.31 ERA
Washburn        4.46 ERA    Reitsma 4.69 ERA
Weaver          4.61 ERA   Sherrill 3.90 ERA 
Batista         4.71 ERA     Mateo 4.20 ERA 
Ramirez         4.86 ERA     Huber 4.32 ERA
ROTATION TOTALS 4.47 ERA PEN TOTALS 4.01 ERA

If all goes as formulated, the Mariners are slated to win 86 games, according to the runs scored - runs prevented systems, but as you can see, the 2006 starting rotation was ALSO expected to put up an ERA of just under 4.5, and they sputtered their way to suckocrity. If this year’s rotation is just as bad, the M’s will have trouble getting past the 78 victories they mustered a year ago.

The bullpen is not as strong, putting a lot of pressure on veterans Washburn, Weaver and Batista, but the key is clearly Felix Hernandez. If the King has a really good year - nothing ridiculous, but darned good - the club is probably an 85+-win team, and if some things fall their way offensively, i.e., Jose Lopez’s, Richie Sexson’s and Adrian Beltre’s consistency and the further development of Lopez and his double-play mate Yuniesky Betancourt, the Mariners might just win enough games to make this season quite interesting.

But that’s a lot of pressure to put on three players whose average age is barely 22.


Jason, thank you kindly for letting us co-publish this here

[Goose]

These projection systems really seem to love Adam Jones. It seems like every projection I've seen with him has been stellar. A .742 OPS is pretty good for a kid of his age and experience, even if it is coming off the bench in this scenario.

[JasonAChurchill]

These systems are not good for small sample guys. Look at Morse.

[Goose]

Yeah thats true.

[Goose]

Speaking of projection systems, last year Lookout Landing did community projections with their reader base, taking the same approach as Tango does with his fielding analysis. Well this year, LL has joined forces with USSM to create a much much larger base with which to work with.

Here is a link to the Kenji Johjima projection. Richie Sexson is currently in progress.