Composite Projection Program for 2007

[bedir than average]

Jason and I will be doing some work gathering as many possible resources to generate a composite set of projections for the players on the 2007 club (maybe a few prospects as well). We included data from professional scouts, from a few journalists (both 'Net and Pro) and from THT'06, ZiPS, and Marcel. We would like to expand that search. Also we included data from a poll conducted on FanHome. We will be doing so again.

Any suggestions as to other sources to include would be great

So over the next few weeks look for a series of polls to be started concering the final statistics for the 2007 Mariners.

[Jim Potable]

Glad to see you're doing that again.

What happened to last year's effort? Were there any printed results? I think I missed them.

[bedir than average]

I didn't publish last years results in a specific thread. But I will review what happened last year, the successes and failures of the project compare it to reality and look forward.

[bedir than average]

Ichiro Suzuki Stats and Graphs - Seattle Mariners | FanGraphs

Now its just a matter of compiling the Mariner specific data.

The composite of those three sources says that Ichiro will get exactly 200 hits.

[RotatorCuff]

I've done my projections as well. I spent 2 minutes looking at the M's lineup, took into the consideration the moron managing them, sized up the rest of the AL West and came to the conclusion that the M's will finish last for the fourth straight season.

Play ball!!!

[bedir than average]

That's rather dismissive of a fairly significant effort on someone else's part to advance the study of baseball

[RotatorCuff]

Gee bedir I was trying to be funny, certainly not dismissive of someone's effort.

I was laughing when I was typing.

All I was trying to say is that you don't need to be a genius to realize that this is a bad baseball team.

[bedir than average]

But you do need the data

[RotatorCuff]

Hey I'm looking forward to the season as much as anybody.

I'll be at my 3rd straight opening day.

Of course I'm a little bitter after 3 straight losing seasons and my 0-7 record at Safeco last season.

But at least we always play the A's tough.

[bedir than average]

Speaking of data and projection systems

The Hardball Times projected the season using their new player projection system. The AL West isn't as good as you think they are R-Cuff, and the Mariners aren't as bad, based on this data. One flaw might be that they assume certain player useages that are typical in baseball, not ideal, and certainly not the way Hargrove would use the players. But concerning all studies I have read on Manager Influence indicate a +/- of up to 5 games and most likely only 3 the following projections are the closest thing to hope that we have had in years

Team           Win     Loss    % Chance of winning
Los Angeles    86      76      36%
Oakland        85      77      32%
Seattle        82      80      21%
Texas          78      84      11%

The AL West will once again be a tight division and all teams are in with a chance. Even though the Athletics haven't properly replaced Frank Thomas and Barry Zito they still have an excellent chance as the Angels (in particular) have failed to capitalize. Of more interest is our belief that the Mariners will break the .500 barrier and finish third. This is largely due to a generous offense with Adrian Beltre, Richie Sexson and Ichiro Suzuki accounting for 10 of 20 (park adjusted) offensive WAR.

From those statements it really seems that the Mariners offense is stronger than most of us think. I'm betting if we took a deeper look into the numbers we would see the mediocre starting rotation as a large problem. Felix' projections are also based on Fat Felix and not the King.

Considering that the Return of the King has been a topic on more than just Seattle blogs lately and there is a national site that is stating that he will be a factor in the Cy Young race there is reason to hope for an 85 win team that wins the division.

If that happens I couldn't complain...much.

[Goose]

Give or take a margin of 2-3 wins for each team, I'd say that prediction looks pretty accurate.

[bedir than average]

Less optimistic than THT, but they included PECOTA which has historically struggled more with Ichiro than any other system.

Mariners Made playoffs 7.3% of the time. Felix Hernandez may have to single-handedly carry them to the playoffs if it's going to happen.

Replacement Level Yankees Weblog

It is pretty much saying what many think though. A mediocre team that to have a chance either needs three of the mediocre starters to be good or Felix to be King