The Pitching Staff

[bedir than average]

How do you expect the 5th spot in the rotation to work out?

I see

1. Felix
2. Washburn
3. Batista
4. Ramirez
5. Baek

What about the make up of the Bullpen?

• CL - Putz
• LS - Sherrill
• RS - Mateo
• SRIP - Green
• RH - Huber
• SLIP - Woods
• Long - White

I expect White to make it on the roster as because of his Rule 5 status, otherwise I would personally go with O'Flaherty, but maybe he breaks rather than Huber or Green.

[Wiggen]

Sadly, I believe you are correct on the pitching staff. It might be as bad a staff as I can remember, with the exception of Hernandez and Putz.

[bedir than average]

Sherrill isn't awful either. It looks to me to be quite average, with a dominant guy at the top of both rotation and bullpen, with a lot of average, and then at the ends of both awful.

And yes, that would still be the worst staff (as appears at the start of the season) the Mariners have run out in over a decade. Though a few might have wound up finishing worse. But the '92 club finished with an ERA+ of 88.

[Wiggen]

Yes, I was engaging in a little bit of over-statement, calling it the worst staff ever. But not much.

And I'm not as sold on Sherrill as some people are. It seemed to me as though every time he came into a game to get a left-handed hitter out he walked him, but I'm sure that's not the case. I'd still consider him only average at best.

[Goose]

Probably righties your thinking about Wiggen. He walked twice as many right handers as left handers.

Against lefties:.143/.230/.182
Against righties:.297/.446(!)/.359

[RotatorCuff]

It is going to be a looonnnggg season.

It is going to take a miracle to match the 78 wins of a year ago.

[JasonAChurchill]

Originally Posted by RotatorCuff

It is going to be a looonnnggg season.

It is going to take a miracle to match the 78 wins of a year ago.

You really think if things fall similarly that they struggle to match 78 wins?

I haven't looked much, but has anyone pit the 2006 25-man to the projected 25-man for 2007?

It's impossible to accurately quantify the differences between the current club and last season's team, but one thing is certain...

The '07 roster isn't WORSE than last year's.

The kids aren't going to be worse. Yubet, Jose Lopez, Felix... they have a much better chance to be better than they do to even be the SAME... worse? Not much of a chance, barring injuries.

Wouldn't you agree that Richie and Beltre probably repeat? Ichiro too, for the most part?

I could see Johjima taking a slight step back offensively - he was really good last year and it's asking a lot for him to duplicate his rookie year... but maybe he will.

I can't see Raul repeating, not at all. But he's not going to be anything worse than the 285/340/450 type we expected. Probably slightly better, just nothing like 2006, at least we can't expect to see that.

Can Washburn be worse? Yeah, he can. But he's just as likely to be the same, possibly even a little bit better. All in all, he is what he is, of course.

Is Ramirez better than Pineiro? Yes. If he can make 28 starts, that's a clear cut upgrade right there.

Batista>Meche. Meche showed flashes, and at the worst, this is a wash, though I hate the 25 mil the club handed a 36-year-old.

The rotation differences left over are 5th spot/Baek versus what Moyer gave the club for 70% of the year. There's a few win differential there, which would be more if Jamie would have finished the year here, but it's not enough to make up for the pluses the team should get with Batista, Ramirez and Felix over what they replaced from 2006.

It's a very mediocre rotation, but it's slightly better than the 2006 version, and if Felix is the Felix of 2005, or somewhere fairly close, the rotation is significantly better.

The pen, of course, is worse, due to the Mateo<Soriano issue, but at least Putz is closing ALL YEAR, not half of it. Huber will do Mateo's job better than Julio can and Sherrill/Woods/O'Flaherty make up two decent lefthanded options, just as good or better than what the same group, sans EO, gave last year.

Overall the staff probably needs Felix to do his thing for the pitching to be truly better than it was a year ago, but unless they are hit with massive injuries, it's not going to be worse by any logical stretch.

The offensive changes, mainly Guillen & Vidro over Everett and the Reed/Bloomquist/Choo/Jones debacle in center field that hit .222/.264/.333 in 123 games as the team's center fielder.

Vidro, well, I think the ZIPS and marcels have him pegged. He's probably going to give the club a .260/.325/.400 bat. I sure don't expect more than that, though even his detractors say he's at home working out and looking really healthy for the first time in 3 years, at least.

But even that 725 OPS is better than 658 Everett gave the club, and the DHs altogether in 2006, using Ben, Eduardo and Crazy Carl only, posted an OPS of 636.

Vidro could go 250/310/370 and be an UPGRADE.

Not saying that's GOOD hittin', but it aint worse than what the club had there a year ago.

Guillen is the wildcard, but if he can't beat the 597 OPS that the three kids and Willie Dynamite put up last year, than someone should check him for a heartbeat.

The offense would have to suffer from key long-term injuries and/or career worst years from more than one of the regulars for them to score less than the 752 runs they plated last year.

Like it or not, on paper, the team most likely to fly north for opening day is probably at least a tad bit better than the one they opened with in 2006.

Again, I'm not saying we should be happy about it, but I don't see any way they can be seen as a team that will be lucky to win 78 games, especially when you throw in the fact that Oakland probably isn't going to be all that good without Zito and Thomas and an aging Kendall behind the plate.

If they ARE lucky, we're probably looking at a repeat of 2006, plus 3-5 wins and a trade deadline that appears to matter, but really doesn't.

Piazza aint gonna cut it.

LAA is probably going to be better, but Texas... well, they really haven't done a lot to make anyone believe they will a lot different than they were a year ago.

If I was Daniels, I'd be unloading Hank Blalock and maybe even Teixeira to net myself some starting pitching. They will always be able to find bats.

Anyways, it seems to me that unless a lot of odd things happen, the M's are destined for a 78-83 win season... again.

[dawgncarolina]

Anyways, it seems to me that unless a lot of odd things happen, the M's are destined for a 78-83 win season... again.

That pretty much sums up my thoughts as well.

Good to see you btw, Jason. Hope all is well your way.

[bedir than average]

In light of the Reitsma signing I think it is most likely that one of Huber or Green is out.

[Wiggen]

While I don't necessarily disagree with the prediction of 78-83 wins, assuming a number of things go right, you'll all forgive me if it doesn't exactly make me giddy with excitement.

Sometimes being mediocre is even worse than being terrible. I'd rather be terrible and young, like the Tigers were a few years ago, than mediocre and old.

[JoeyJoJoJuniorShabadoo]

1. Felix Hernandez
2. Jarrod Washburn
3. Miguel Batista
4. Horacio Ramirez
5. Cha Seung Baek

JJ Putz
Jon Huber
Chris Reitsma
George Sherrill
Jake Woods
Julio Mateo
Sean White

[Goose]

Wiggen, RC,guys come on.

The thread was about the discussion around how the pitching staff is going to be constructed. Not how terrible you think the team is gonna be.

This is one of the things that really started to piss me off over at ITP, every freaking thread was turned into a "I think the Mariners are going to suck!" thread, even if the subject had zero to do with wins and losses.

[JasonAChurchill]

Wiggen is right, mediocrity sucks, sometimes worse than being 2004-style awful.

Teams get stuck there more often, at least teams that spend money.

[Wiggen]

Goose - you'll forgive me if I don't give a rip what 'pisses' you off. I'd suggest counseling if things are bothering you that much. Either that, or go to one of those 'Home on the Range' forums - you know, where never is heard a discouraging word. I'll continue to post whatever I feel is appropriate, given the topic, and if you don't like it, don't read it.

You seem like a nice guy but you spend way too much time complaining about what other people post.

[bedir than average]

personally, I think there are really only one end result that matters, because no matter what the pitching staff looks like, the topline result is team wins...

And I still see a marginal improvement.

Lastly, the site is FanHome, not MarinerHome...if you catch my drift.