Igawa

[Chris]

After initial reports that the team is not interested in Igawa, things appear to have changed...

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/a...2006&fext=.jsp

[bedir than average]

Thank goodness. I have always liked Igawa as an addition. Recall my MLB comparisons that I offered last offseason.

2005 MLB Performance Comparison
Midline: Nate Robertson
High end: Noah Lowry

Look at those two's 2005 numbers, then look at their 2006. Also recall that Igawa improved his groundball rate and uses his breaking pitches more often.

[Chris]

A Noah Lowry addition would be huge to this team.

I really hope this is a competitive bid that they put up.

[The Iceman Cometh]

Igawa has got to be one of- if not the- best values on the market. As long as that posting fee doesn't grow hair, he should be near the top of our list IMO.

[Chris]

Right. He could be had for probably somewhere around 3 years and 21 million. At that price, on this market, he could be a steal.

[Lamda]

I thought they figured he could be had for less - like 5mill/year? If its going to be 7/year i'd almost rather puruse the trade for Jennings.

[Chris]

Here's the way I look at it.

If both players were going to get 4 years 40 million dollar contracts, I'd want Igawa over Zito.

However, Zito is set to get a few million more annually then that and Igawa is set to get a few million less annually.

I want Igawa.

[Jim Potable]

Also recall that Igawa improved his groundball rate and uses his breaking pitches more often.

Groundballs seem to have come back, almost like his awesome '03 season. Difference seems negligible in raw numbers, but the two great years of these last four ('03 and '06) look pretty close to each other.

Kei Igawa -- last four seasons

General Stats
YEAR   G   W   L   IP    IP/G   BF  BF/G   PC    PC/G   P/BF   R  ER   ERA
2003  29  20   5  206.0   7.1  839  28.9  3388  116.8   4.03  72  64  2.80
2004  29  14  11  200.1   6.9  840  28.9  3345  115.3   3.98  95  83  3.73
2005  27  13   9  172.1   6.0  721  27.7  2921  108.1   3.89  91  74  3.86
2006  29  14   9  209.0   7.2  844  29.1  3332  114.8   3.94  77  69  2.97

Hits & Strikeouts & Walks
YEAR   H   H/9   BAA  1B  2B  3B  HR   K   KS  KL   K/9  BB  IBB  HBP
2003  184  8.03 .242 136  32   1  15  179 135  44  7.82  58   3    3
2004  190  8.53 .248 135  26   0  29  228 176  52 10.24  54   -    6
2005  199 10.39 .293 141  31   4  23  145 111  34  7.57  60   -    1
2006  180  7.75 .234 126  34   3  17  194 151  43  8.35  49   3    6

Direction of Batted Balls
YEAR   3B  LF  SS  CF  2B  RF  1B  GO  FO  LO
2003   54  97  89  94  86 100  39 353 227  19
2004   42  90  74  89  58 118  30 318 222  11
2005   42  92  72  95  73  89  38 330 191  22
2006   73 103  83  98  71  91  35 352 230  13

All stats official, except those in the third set.

[Goose]

I agree with Chris, he looks like he might be one of the few good deals in this market.

[bedir than average]

Looks like someone didn't quit. Thanks for the data Jim.

[Wiggen]

Yes, thanks for posting the stats. The problem is, nobody knows what kind of bid it takes to even get you in the game. Is $51 million now the benchmark for Japanese players? Is this guy half as good as the other guy, and if so does that mean at least $25 milllion just to talk to him?

I'm having enough trouble understanding the bizarre dollars paid to U.S. free agents, let alone trying to figure out the Japanese market.

[bedir than average]

Well, back when I expect Matsuzaka's winning bid to be in the uppper 20s I thought that Igawa would be at 7-11M$, so is that doubled? If its at the high end of double, I'm not so happy.

[JasonAChurchill]

Any fee for Igawa beyond 7 million is preposterous and the Mariners shouldn't even consider it. He's talking 3 and 20 for a contract, and if you add 7+ mil to that, that's a 9+ mil per year investment in an unknown commodity.

No thanks.

[Jim Potable]

Yes, thanks for posting the stats. The problem is, nobody knows what kind of bid it takes to even get you in the game. Is $51 million now the benchmark for Japanese players? Is this guy half as good as the other guy, and if so does that mean at least $25 milllion just to talk to him?

No problem. Sort of nice to combine it with the fine report at PI from two weeks back. By that I mean, combine a few numbers along with the expert eyes -- stats and scouts combined for a fuller picture.

So far, this is a crazy off-season of over-priced contracts. I, too, wonder if the $51 million posting fee for Matsuzaka threw things way out of whack. For Igawa, $7M posting fee sounds reasonable to me... $11M tops.... if that is doubled...

Today I read with mild amusement that former Hanshin Tiger (and forever Hanshin hero) Randy Bass advised yesterday that Igawa avoid signing with the weak Seattle Mariners. Go to a team that has a chance to contend! said he. Another great former Hanshin player, Kenjiro Tamiya also suggested Igawa go to a team with no Japanese players.

Not much of a story, I know. More of a protest against the posting system -- since Igawa's only choice would be whether or not to sign with the team that wins the bid.

A couple of old Hanshin farts play golf, express opinions -- so it goes....


BTW, did anyone find the "$51" million slightly suggestive? Get it? "51"... Ichiro's number? Not saying that's why Boston posted the fee they did, but that's some irony there.

[Lamda]

well, I gotta admit Jason - you are getting me a bit depressed about the M's moves, lol, and a little pissed off. OK, so 5/65 for Schmidt - the M's will pass according to you, 4/36 for Eaton - M's will pass according to you, Igawa should not surpass bid of 7 mill, which will NOT win, so we miss out on Igawa. So WTF are we supposed to do then? We won't spend the money, we won't trade Jones, etc.... so then what happens? If they are going to do nothing, which i'm not against, atleast tell the f'ers to cut game prices in half so fans will actually go.
I hope you are wrong though or to a point I assume cause otherwise we will do nothing. As for Igawa - it will take 10-15 mill posting to win - especially with 11 teams bidding on him as you said. Sure if we then signed him to 3/21 it would essentially be say 3/31 for him but since that 10-15 mill doesn't count towards payroll I really don't give a crap. I'm sure it will be made up by the FO upping ticket prices another dollar or two anyways. Or if the FO just eats it - all the better. Assuming we re-sign Ichiro to a 3 year deal or something to play CF - i'd trade Jones for Jennings on the contingency we sign him to an extension. Keep Reed as the backup cause Jones has more trade value anyways. I don't support cleaning the farm system - but I have little to no faith on what our FO holds onto in the farm system cause the past years just haven't panned out with a few exceptions.
In short, I hope they do more than you say they will - granted the FA period sucks but they if they wont pay the prices or part with their prospects then we're in for a cold winter.