Ichiro's Value as a Free Agent Next Year- edited to include decline

[bedir than average]

With the market exploding for CF contracts and some recent work that Tango did on the current market in general one can wonder what kind of contract that Ichiro will get in the near future.

Chart Here

Since Tango's chart uses WARP, I will use that number for all comparisons.

A.Soriano signs with Cubs for 8/136 for his age 31 season with a 3 year avg WARP of 5.4, last year at 8.6.

Vernon Wells is turning down a 7 year, 126M$ offer as an upcoming 28 year old with a 3 year WARP of 5.2 and last year at 6.1.

So we have three new data points to apply to my thread calling for the Mariners to extend Ichiro which I will post below.

Ichiro's defense is well known to us, his ability to play centerfield is obvious now. He will win another Gold Glove. The Fan Scouting Report will again have him in the top 9 regardless of position. He is a premier defensive player in the game.

His offense is falling, a little, though not nearly as much as some here claim.

When comparing RC/G, OPS and GrossProductionAverage of Ichiro to the Majors and then combining those ratings Ichiro was 15% better than league average on offense. Only one of those stats includes baserunning. GPA is a slight variation on OPS, but does include park factor.

Upcoming and recent deals for CF are below
Damon at 13% above and a bit younger got 4/52
Beltran at 26% above and a lot younger got 7/119
AnJones at 24% above and a bit younger is speculated to be getting 4/52
Torrii Hunter at 7% above league average and roughly the same age is expected to get 4/44-48

Dropping Beltran because Ichiro is not anywhere near Carlos' age, nor offensive ability the average % above MLB was 15, the average deal or speculation was 4 years and 50M$.

Considering that according to the Hardball Times Salary Calculator Ichiro is getting paid only 1M$ short of what his offense says he should, the Mariners are not grossly overpaying for his perceived marketing value at this time.

A caveat that should be known is that high contact rate, fast hitters actually do NOT age as quickly as sluggers, thereby somewhat mitagating the typical aging discussion, but not fully abandoning it.

In order to free up one Adam Jones to acquire a proven All-Star for LF/DH or a true TOR starter would you be a fan of the Mariners avoiding the will Ichiro resign post 2007 question by offering him a 4year/50M$ contract?

This deal would not add ANY payroll to 2007, which should be obvious, but I felt it needed to be said.

So prior to this offseason I speculated that his deal would be 4/50.

Applying the current offseason to Ichiro I'm guessing that Ichiro will get a 5 year deal and if you apply Tango's chart to a five year deal, you get Ichiro with a WARP of 7 now going down to 5/120 including his decline. If a team were to go only 3 years due to aging concerns (a 3 year deal would qualify him for the Hall) that would be a 3/72 deal.

This doesn't account for his unique ability to generate revenue. No matter how you break it down, he will be paid very well as a Free Agent.

Extending Ichiro this offseason would have been a better use of dollars than any deal the Mariners have done so far this offseason.

[bedir than average]

In light of the recent Gassko work on Present Value vs Inflationary measures in baseball it becomes apparent that if a club has an All-Star, or better, level player nearing Free Agency that the club should extend the player prior to the FA period. That or just deal the player off to another club.

I'm going to see if I can find a better assessment of WARP than BP. Trying Fangraphs, and THT.

[Goose]

Before Snelling was dealt, I was giving serious consideration into that maybe the Mariners would deal Ichiro. With Jones looking to be ready here really soon, and with Guillen/Snelling in right field, the Mariners could of dealt him for a nice package. And at the very least, with Snelling's on base ability he could of been the leadoff hitter.

But now that dream has been destroyed, so they might as well resign him. That is, if he wants to stay here.

[Slica]

I dont know him personally, and I know money is the root of all evil...yada yada yada... but Ichiro seems like a win-first player, money second.

I personally think unless our FO blows him outta the water with a huge offer, he will wait out the year instead. If he does that, there will be many questions surrounding our franchise. Will our FO still be there? Are we going into the right direction?

We also know him and Hargrove dont get along. Hargrove and felloiw coaches even called Ichiro a liar on a play regarding 3B Coach Carlos Garcia near the end of the season. Ichiro eventually said they were right, but replays showed Ichiro was right. I personally think Ichiro does not like Hargrove. Can you blame him?

If he waits until the end of the year, im sure he will see one of the two possibilities for us:

A) We improve, and keep our FO in tact. That is probably the only scenerio where he stays...then again if our FO stays in tact, maybe thats a turnoff too.

B) We go backwards, and he leaves for greener pastures.

Id imagine he would want to stay on the West Coast, most definitely. He seems like a loyal guy, so I would doubt he went to Oakland or Anaheim. Who knows where he ends up. LA, SF, SD?

I personally think he is gone unless our FO gives him an unrefusable offer. Even so---and with this FO who knows, we're already tying up a ton of money elsewhere putting Ichiro in Mike Cameron-territory in terms of being able to re-sign him, it might not happen. Either way I say Ichiro waits and then bolts after the season.

[bedir than average]

Here's tango on the same concept.

If I had noticed him do it already I probably wouldn't have bothered to do it myself.