Previewing the Season: Infield & Catcher

bedir than average · February 4th, 2008, 03:36 PM

So I'm going to start previewing the season with the Infield. I'm starting here because I have today off and yet still the silly Jones+Sherrill+3 other guys for Bedard deal still may be happening, or not. I'd prefer to move with the certainities.

Right now that is the Infield. I will be using Fangraphs.com and their mighty fine compilation of three decent projection systems and a little bit of my own love/hate for the player. Format will be Infield, Outfield, Starters, Relievers, Bench, Deep Bench. My win add/subtract will be based on last year's baseline having been at 81 wins (+2 over pythag due to the bullpen).

Starters
This group is fairly obvious as all of the players will be making their return from the last season with little change in playing time, though Lopez had a challenger brought in and Sexson has a couple guys who will challenge him if his regression isn't good enough. Hopefully the depth at Catcher will help reduce Johjima's playing time and weariness issues.

Johjima - the composite projection has him at about a 785 ops, which would be a great bounce back. I find it only believable if Clement and Burke get more time. I'd rather 120 games of a 785 Johjima would be better than a 765 performance over 140 games. His first half consistency has been decent to good. He's good for +1 win over last year with this projection.

Sexson - ugh, so many of my dreams had him not on the team, but he's here and so we will deal. The composite has him at a 795 OPS, which I find nearly laughable as there was little indication that he wasn't finished. I expect less than a +8 win turnaround, and who wouldn't. I'm willing to give him a +1 win bump, and I think that might be generous. But I'm excited about the bench at first.

Lopez - The projections see an improvement for Lopez, but mainly due to his age. A whopping 710 OPS, rather pathetic and negligible over last years performance. He isn't the next Miguel Tejada, instead he's closer to Wilfredo Tejada. Once a highly thought of talent, I now basically settle for solidly inconsistent and poor performance. I see no win bump from Lopez.

Betancourt - His projections are amazingly steady. Literally projecting to be what he was last year. 725 ops, hopefully here we will see a steadying of his defense. If Yuniesky can have the defense like his first year I'd put him at +3, otherwise we are going to see no improvements to the club from YuBet.

Beltre - Here we see a slight slide back to his 2006 numbers. Good offense, but nothing incredibly impressive. His defense will continue to be solid to great but a relatively even performance so neutral overall here.

The Starters overall look to add offense, but mainly due to the performance of Richie Sexson, not a great place to look for hope. Right now I see +5 wins over all from the Starting Infield.

Timberwolf · February 4th, 2008, 04:58 PM

The big question that I have is whether or not Vidro is capable of playing a competent 2B two days a week. That could result in an extra bat in the lineup. Plus maybe Lopez is better as a 5 day a week player than a 7 day a week guy.

bedir than average · February 4th, 2008, 05:00 PM

Vidro does project as better than Lopez, but he's not a great offensive addition. When I get to the Bench I'm going to play with some of the platooning/parttiming scenarios.

February 4th, 2008, 03:36 PM	#1 (permalink)
bedir than average Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Starbucks Posts: 8,258	Previewing the Season: Infield & Catcher So I'm going to start previewing the season with the Infield. I'm starting here because I have today off and yet still the silly Jones+Sherrill+3 other guys for Bedard deal still may be happening, or not. I'd prefer to move with the certainities. Right now that is the Infield. I will be using Fangraphs.com and their mighty fine compilation of three decent projection systems and a little bit of my own love/hate for the player. Format will be Infield, Outfield, Starters, Relievers, Bench, Deep Bench. My win add/subtract will be based on last year's baseline having been at 81 wins (+2 over pythag due to the bullpen). Starters This group is fairly obvious as all of the players will be making their return from the last season with little change in playing time, though Lopez had a challenger brought in and Sexson has a couple guys who will challenge him if his regression isn't good enough. Hopefully the depth at Catcher will help reduce Johjima's playing time and weariness issues. Johjima - the composite projection has him at about a 785 ops, which would be a great bounce back. I find it only believable if Clement and Burke get more time. I'd rather 120 games of a 785 Johjima would be better than a 765 performance over 140 games. His first half consistency has been decent to good. He's good for +1 win over last year with this projection. Sexson - ugh, so many of my dreams had him not on the team, but he's here and so we will deal. The composite has him at a 795 OPS, which I find nearly laughable as there was little indication that he wasn't finished. I expect less than a +8 win turnaround, and who wouldn't. I'm willing to give him a +1 win bump, and I think that might be generous. But I'm excited about the bench at first. Lopez - The projections see an improvement for Lopez, but mainly due to his age. A whopping 710 OPS, rather pathetic and negligible over last years performance. He isn't the next Miguel Tejada, instead he's closer to Wilfredo Tejada. Once a highly thought of talent, I now basically settle for solidly inconsistent and poor performance. I see no win bump from Lopez. Betancourt - His projections are amazingly steady. Literally projecting to be what he was last year. 725 ops, hopefully here we will see a steadying of his defense. If Yuniesky can have the defense like his first year I'd put him at +3, otherwise we are going to see no improvements to the club from YuBet. Beltre - Here we see a slight slide back to his 2006 numbers. Good offense, but nothing incredibly impressive. His defense will continue to be solid to great but a relatively even performance so neutral overall here. The Starters overall look to add offense, but mainly due to the performance of Richie Sexson, not a great place to look for hope. Right now I see +5 wins over all from the Starting Infield. __________________ I'm sorry I left for a while. I needed a vaction, and then work changed substantially. I'm over 50 hour weeks, plus two hours a day of commuting time. A few weeks ago I launched my own blog about Seattle Sounders FC and Life in Puget Sound. I won't be by these parts often as my focus has changed. Sorry about the unannounced retirement.

February 4th, 2008, 05:00 PM	#3 (permalink)
bedir than average Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Starbucks Posts: 8,258	Vidro does project as better than Lopez, but he's not a great offensive addition. When I get to the Bench I'm going to play with some of the platooning/parttiming scenarios. __________________ I'm sorry I left for a while. I needed a vaction, and then work changed substantially. I'm over 50 hour weeks, plus two hours a day of commuting time. A few weeks ago I launched my own blog about Seattle Sounders FC and Life in Puget Sound. I won't be by these parts often as my focus has changed. Sorry about the unannounced retirement.

February 4th, 2008, 04:58 PM	#2 (permalink)
Timberwolf Veteran Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Bellevue, WA Posts: 1,865	The big question that I have is whether or not Vidro is capable of playing a competent 2B two days a week. That could result in an extra bat in the lineup. Plus maybe Lopez is better as a 5 day a week player than a 7 day a week guy.