M's, Silva agree to deal

coachjeff · December 19th, 2007, 06:39 PM

Jim Street is reporting that the Mariners and Carlos Silva have agreed to a contract, that is believed to be 4 yr/$44 million pending a physical. The Official Site of The Seattle Mariners: Homepage

Yikes. This looks like a bad contract for a pitcher who cannot miss bats (career 3.76 K/9) and struggles against LHP (2007 -- .294 BAA, 14 HR allowed). His ceiling is likely 2-3 wins above replacement level. Hope I'm wrong, but this is a huge risk, typical of recent Mariner moves.

USS Mariner has an in depth analysis of Silva from their sabremetric perspective. They hate it. So does most of the rest of the blogosphere.

Some seem to think this move is OK if we follow it up by getting Bedard. I don't think one has anything to do with the other. Overpaying for Bedard with our entire farm system would just mean that we have less wiggle room because we are committed to Silva long term.

bedir than average · December 19th, 2007, 07:03 PM

The good news on this, and there is a very tiny bit, is that the last two years of his deal he will be signed BELOW market value.

For example: Jarrod Washburn would be getting more than 9M$ per year if he were a Free Agent this year.

coachjeff · December 19th, 2007, 07:10 PM

That is one way to look at it, and if he does not repeat his 2006 fiasco, he will be another average/slightly better than average pitcher. The problem is that he blocks the younger prospects (Tillman, Butler, Aumont) who may be ready in the last 2 years of this deal. He also gives an incentive to trade those prospects who will be ready sooner (Jones, Clement, Morrow) in hopes of hitting the jackpot on Bedard.
I'm not that high on a deal if it costs us the entire farm.

bedir than average · December 19th, 2007, 07:16 PM

In two years there will already be two rotation slots open from Washburn and Batista, as well as maybe a the 5th spot. No one is blocked.

Still doesn't make it a good deal.

marinerswinws · December 20th, 2007, 02:54 AM

"Silva has a 55-46 record in six MLB seasons and is 47-45 with a 4.46 ERA in 125 big-league starts. He has been successful against AL West teams, posting an overall 16-8 record with a 3.48 ERA. He is 5-1 against the Angels, 3-2 against the Athletics and 3-4 against the Rangers.

He also is 3-1 with a 3.18 ERA in four career starts at Safeco Field. "

The Official Site of Major League Baseball: News: Major League Baseball News

Not bad against al west. Still overpaid.

Sully · December 20th, 2007, 06:30 PM

They are all overpaid and the owners are throwing it away like it is monopoly money so I really don't care what they paid.

He is better than they had and the park and real grass might make him look a little better.

He is not a world series winner like Weaver but neither is he washed up like Weaver!

All in all it could be worse, let's just hope it doesn't get any worse with some bad trade!

JMUplayer · December 21st, 2007, 12:57 PM

This will cost the M's not this year but in future years when you have 10% of your payroll tied up in a average guy.......
The only way it makes sense is if you're a huge favorite and you needed a guy to fill in and be an innings eater as a 5th starter.

Unfortunetly another .500 season or so will be in the works.

RotatorCuff · December 21st, 2007, 04:16 PM

I like the player but the money is stupid.

I liked Bill Bavasi a lot before he took the M's job and I was thrilled when he got the job.

But his tenure here has been a disaster.

Bavasi might have inherited a mess but that is exactly the way he is going to leave the team for his successor.

RotatorCuff · December 22nd, 2007, 05:36 PM

Now the only thing left to do is for Bavasi to trade away Jones and Clement.

Why would Bavasi give a sh*t about the future when he isn't going to be part of it?

Timberwolf · December 23rd, 2007, 01:31 AM

The money is stupid on everybody. That's just the way it is. Prices are up, deal with it and move on. Silva is a solid bottom of the rotation guy who could be better than that if he gets on a roll and has a good year. He is a significant upgrade from Jeff Weaver. He's not that old, and maybe bringing in another Venezualan just might cause our child prodigy to blossom a little faster.

For this team to get a sniff of a playoff spot, Felix Hernandez and Brandon Morrow are going to have to take a big step forward.

JMUplayer · December 23rd, 2007, 11:40 PM

Would you rather have Two Carlos Silva type guys or One Johan Santana and one AAA pitcher....

To me the choice is obvious.

Timberwolf · December 24th, 2007, 10:42 PM

I would rather have two Carlos Silvas, Brandon Morrow, Adam Jones, and Jeff Clement than Johan Santana. Santana isn't a free agent, you have to pay the Twins as well as Santana.

bedir than average · December 25th, 2007, 11:40 AM

excellent point. Unless your system is completely stocked with top 50 prospect talents you can't afford to give it up all in one deal especially for a single year. If the Mariners had more talent in the high minors I would be pushing for it, but as it stands now they would lose the players who will be playing significant time in 2009

December 19th, 2007, 06:39 PM	#1 (permalink)
coachjeff Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Olympia Posts: 91	M's, Silva agree to deal Jim Street is reporting that the Mariners and Carlos Silva have agreed to a contract, that is believed to be 4 yr/$44 million pending a physical. The Official Site of The Seattle Mariners: Homepage Yikes. This looks like a bad contract for a pitcher who cannot miss bats (career 3.76 K/9) and struggles against LHP (2007 -- .294 BAA, 14 HR allowed). His ceiling is likely 2-3 wins above replacement level. Hope I'm wrong, but this is a huge risk, typical of recent Mariner moves. USS Mariner has an in depth analysis of Silva from their sabremetric perspective. They hate it. So does most of the rest of the blogosphere. Some seem to think this move is OK if we follow it up by getting Bedard. I don't think one has anything to do with the other. Overpaying for Bedard with our entire farm system would just mean that we have less wiggle room because we are committed to Silva long term. Last edited by coachjeff; December 19th, 2007 at 06:41 PM.

December 19th, 2007, 07:03 PM	#2 (permalink)
bedir than average Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Starbucks Posts: 8,258	The good news on this, and there is a very tiny bit, is that the last two years of his deal he will be signed BELOW market value. For example: Jarrod Washburn would be getting more than 9M$ per year if he were a Free Agent this year. __________________ I'm sorry I left for a while. I needed a vaction, and then work changed substantially. I'm over 50 hour weeks, plus two hours a day of commuting time. A few weeks ago I launched my own blog about Seattle Sounders FC and Life in Puget Sound. I won't be by these parts often as my focus has changed. Sorry about the unannounced retirement.

December 19th, 2007, 07:16 PM	#4 (permalink)
bedir than average Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Starbucks Posts: 8,258	In two years there will already be two rotation slots open from Washburn and Batista, as well as maybe a the 5th spot. No one is blocked. Still doesn't make it a good deal. __________________ I'm sorry I left for a while. I needed a vaction, and then work changed substantially. I'm over 50 hour weeks, plus two hours a day of commuting time. A few weeks ago I launched my own blog about Seattle Sounders FC and Life in Puget Sound. I won't be by these parts often as my focus has changed. Sorry about the unannounced retirement.

December 21st, 2007, 12:57 PM	#7 (permalink)
JMUplayer Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 204	Bad bad decision.... This will cost the M's not this year but in future years when you have 10% of your payroll tied up in a average guy....... The only way it makes sense is if you're a huge favorite and you needed a guy to fill in and be an innings eater as a 5th starter. Unfortunetly another .500 season or so will be in the works.

December 25th, 2007, 11:40 AM	#13 (permalink)
bedir than average Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Starbucks Posts: 8,258	excellent point. Unless your system is completely stocked with top 50 prospect talents you can't afford to give it up all in one deal especially for a single year. If the Mariners had more talent in the high minors I would be pushing for it, but as it stands now they would lose the players who will be playing significant time in 2009 __________________ I'm sorry I left for a while. I needed a vaction, and then work changed substantially. I'm over 50 hour weeks, plus two hours a day of commuting time. A few weeks ago I launched my own blog about Seattle Sounders FC and Life in Puget Sound. I won't be by these parts often as my focus has changed. Sorry about the unannounced retirement.

December 19th, 2007, 07:10 PM	#3 (permalink)
coachjeff Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Olympia Posts: 91	That is one way to look at it, and if he does not repeat his 2006 fiasco, he will be another average/slightly better than average pitcher. The problem is that he blocks the younger prospects (Tillman, Butler, Aumont) who may be ready in the last 2 years of this deal. He also gives an incentive to trade those prospects who will be ready sooner (Jones, Clement, Morrow) in hopes of hitting the jackpot on Bedard. I'm not that high on a deal if it costs us the entire farm.

December 20th, 2007, 02:54 AM	#5 (permalink)
marinerswinws Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Seattle area Posts: 167	"Silva has a 55-46 record in six MLB seasons and is 47-45 with a 4.46 ERA in 125 big-league starts. He has been successful against AL West teams, posting an overall 16-8 record with a 3.48 ERA. He is 5-1 against the Angels, 3-2 against the Athletics and 3-4 against the Rangers. He also is 3-1 with a 3.18 ERA in four career starts at Safeco Field. " The Official Site of Major League Baseball: News: Major League Baseball News Not bad against al west. Still overpaid.

December 20th, 2007, 06:30 PM	#6 (permalink)
Sully Rookie Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Everett Posts: 6	They are all overpaid and the owners are throwing it away like it is monopoly money so I really don't care what they paid. He is better than they had and the park and real grass might make him look a little better. He is not a world series winner like Weaver but neither is he washed up like Weaver! All in all it could be worse, let's just hope it doesn't get any worse with some bad trade!

December 21st, 2007, 04:16 PM	#8 (permalink)
RotatorCuff Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 257	I like the player but the money is stupid. I liked Bill Bavasi a lot before he took the M's job and I was thrilled when he got the job. But his tenure here has been a disaster. Bavasi might have inherited a mess but that is exactly the way he is going to leave the team for his successor.

December 22nd, 2007, 05:36 PM	#9 (permalink)
RotatorCuff Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 257	Now the only thing left to do is for Bavasi to trade away Jones and Clement. Why would Bavasi give a sh*t about the future when he isn't going to be part of it?

December 23rd, 2007, 01:31 AM	#10 (permalink)
Timberwolf Veteran Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Bellevue, WA Posts: 1,865	The money is stupid on everybody. That's just the way it is. Prices are up, deal with it and move on. Silva is a solid bottom of the rotation guy who could be better than that if he gets on a roll and has a good year. He is a significant upgrade from Jeff Weaver. He's not that old, and maybe bringing in another Venezualan just might cause our child prodigy to blossom a little faster. For this team to get a sniff of a playoff spot, Felix Hernandez and Brandon Morrow are going to have to take a big step forward.

December 23rd, 2007, 11:40 PM	#11 (permalink)
JMUplayer Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 204	Would you rather have Two Carlos Silva type guys or One Johan Santana and one AAA pitcher.... To me the choice is obvious.

December 24th, 2007, 10:42 PM	#12 (permalink)
Timberwolf Veteran Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Bellevue, WA Posts: 1,865	I would rather have two Carlos Silvas, Brandon Morrow, Adam Jones, and Jeff Clement than Johan Santana. Santana isn't a free agent, you have to pay the Twins as well as Santana.