Team Spotlight: San Francisco Giants

Heltonfan · 11-17-2007, 12:59 AM

The Mets will still be right in the thick of things in the NL East, but they won’t enter the year as clear favorites like they did in ’07. They’ve got a lot of work to do just to win 88 games again.

Summary Statistics
Rotation: -18
Bullpen: +7
Lineup: +48
Bench: 2
Defense: -6
W-L record: 83-79

Rotation

Martinez 3.69
Maine 4.43
Hernandez 4.76
Pelfrey 4.69
Sosa 4.98

Pedro’s probably a little better than that, and he might be a lot better. I think the projection is overreacting to his high HR rate in 2006 (19 HR in 132 IP). But the pessimism shown here regarding the rest of the rotation is warranted. John Maine had a 4.06 FIP this year, 4.77 in ’06… he’s nothing special. El Duque is old, homer-prone, and unlikely to give them more than 150 innings. Jorge Sosa has a mediocre K rate and no track record. Pelfrey has talent, but walked more batters than he struck out this year.

The guy not listed here, who the Mets are counting on for big things, is Oliver Perez. I avoided listing Perez because he has a 5.00 ERC projection, substantially worse than the other guys… in other words, I’m giving the Mets the benefit of the doubt, figuring that if Perez does pitch at a 5.00 ERC level, he won’t get many innings. And as for why he projects so poorly... Perez wasn’t even within spitting distance of replacement level in either ’05 or ’06. And although his ’07 looks pretty good at first glance (3.56 ERA), it’s not nearly as impressive when you consider that he allowed 20 unearned runs. I have him at a 4.21 FIP, 3.88 ERC this year… league-average, basically. Combine one league-average season and two sub-replacement level seasons, and you get a guy who shouldn’t be counted on for anything much.

Bullpen

Wagner 3.22
Heilman 3.34
Feliciano 3.80
Sanchez 3.91
Smith 4.30
Mota 4.71
Schoeneweis 4.76

Not much to discuss here. Wagner-Heilman is a nice 1-2 punch, but they need depth.

Lineup

C: Torrealba 0.36 (.224, 1)
1B: Delgado 1.22 (.268, -2)
2B: Gotay 0.06 (.236, -5)
SS: Reyes 4.76 (.288, 4)
3B: Wright 5.37 (.327, 5)
LF: Alou 1.90 (.286, -10)
CF: Beltran 4.53 (.290, 7)
RF: Milledge 0.91 (.260, -3)

Those are substantial dropoffs for Wright and Beltran. Beltran’s 2005 season is killing his projection; he’d jump from .290 to .308 if we threw it out. Not that we should.

I suspect Met fans will be very disappointed if Milledge meets that projection, but aside from his raw physical ability, I don’t see any reason to think that he’s being sold short here. That .260 would represent the best year of his career so far.

Needless to say, this team is badly in need of a second baseman. And, also needless to say, Yorvit doesn’t solve anything for them.

Bench

Castro .257
Easley .228
Anderson .249
Chavez .233
Gomez .229

Endy Chavez’s glove makes him a useful player, but the Mets could really use a guy on the bench (besides Castro) who can actually hit.

If I Were in Charge, I Would: Be extremely inactive, by Mets standards.

The Mets have glaring weaknesses at C, 2B, and in the rotation, and I’m sure they’d like to dump Delgado and find a 1B upgrade if possible. However, they don’t really have many tradeable assets (aside from guys like Wright and Reyes, who they’d never part with in a million years). They simply don’t have the pieces to make a deal for Santana or Bedard. And, unless they deal Milledge (in which case they’d have a hole in the outfield to address as well), they’re not getting a good #2 starter. Although, if the A’s do elect to rebuild, that old Milledge/Haren idea is worth revisiting.

Anyway, with A-Rod and Posada re-signing in the Bronx, the only guys on the free agent market who the Mets should be interested in are Iguchi/Castillo. They’ve been linked with Lohse/Silva, but there’s no sense in signing one of those guys when they could just promote Kevin Mulvey and get 90% of the production that they’d get out of the FA signing.

The upshot of all this is that it’s going to be awfully hard for the Mets to climb into the 88-89 projected win range. They’ve certainly got a shot at winning that many games, but if it happens, it will be because guys like Pedro, Milledge, Perez, and Delgado beat their projections, not because of anything that Omar Minaya does this winter.

Heltonfan · 11-18-2007, 12:01 AM

Brian Sabean has been doing his best to run this franchise into the ground for the past five years or so. And now, with Bonds gone, his work is done: the last sliver of hope for the Giants has finally disappeared.

Summary Statistics
Rotation: +31
Bullpen: -1
Lineup: -130
Bench: -1
Defense: +29
W-L record: 73-89

No, that -130 isn’t a typo. That’s more than 70 runs worse than any other lineup in the game.

Rotation

Cain 3.44
Zito 4.24
Lincecum 3.10
Lowry 4.40
Misch 5.07

I projected Zito at 4.12 last year; he proceeded to put up a 4.53 FIP and a 3.89 ERC. I’d call that a pretty darn good projection. He’s as average as they come, and there’s no reason not to expect more of the same. Worst contract in the game right now.

Cain and Lincecum combine for 42% of the team’s projected WAR. That’s unbelievable.

Bullpen

Wilson 3.74
Correia 3.66
Chulk 3.97
Atchison 3.94
Taschner 3.92
Hennessey 4.33
Messenger 4.39

This is actually not such a bad group, particularly considering that none of these guys are the least bit expensive. But it’s also a group lacking any sort of elite talent.

Lineup

C: Molina 0.92 (.240, -1)
1B: Niekro 0.10 (.244, 2)
2B: Durham -0.52 (.228, -6)
SS: Vizquel 0.58 (.209, 12)
3B: Frandsen 1.01 (.242, 5)
LF: Davis 1.09 (.238, 12)
CF: Roberts 0.76 (.249, -5)
RF: Winn 0.81 (.248, 3)

Amazing, isn’t it? Not a single hitter over the .250 ABR mark. And Rajai Davis, acquired in the Matt Morris trade, is the best position player on the roster. This looks like an expansion team lineup, and not a very good one at that.

Bench

Alfonzo .224
Aurilia .228
Velez .232
Lewis .246
Schierholtz .252

Well, at least there isn’t much of a dropoff from the starters to the bench players…

If I Were in Charge, I Would: Probably kill myself.

But, otherwise, the plan is simple: sign every free agent they can find who will accept a contract paying $5 million per win or less. In other words, collect assets. They can’t accomplish anything via trade, because the only players in the entire organization who have any value at all are Lincecum and Cain, and those two are exactly the sorts of players that the Giants need more of. So the only thing they can do is bring in a bunch of veteran stopgaps on affordable contracts and hope that they play well enough to be traded for prospects in June or July. There’s absolutely no downside to this approach; the Giants are in desperate need of a talent infusion, and there’s only one way to get it right now.

Of course, no matter how well they play their cards this winter, they have absolutely no chance of accomplishing anything in 2008. Or 2009. Or probably 2010 (keep in mind how good the rest of the division is). I’ve never before seen a team with so little reason for optimism.

11-17-2007, 12:59 AM	#1 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 855	Team Spotlight: New York Mets The Mets will still be right in the thick of things in the NL East, but they won’t enter the year as clear favorites like they did in ’07. They’ve got a lot of work to do just to win 88 games again. Summary Statistics Rotation: -18 Bullpen: +7 Lineup: +48 Bench: 2 Defense: -6 W-L record: 83-79 Rotation Martinez 3.69 Maine 4.43 Hernandez 4.76 Pelfrey 4.69 Sosa 4.98 Pedro’s probably a little better than that, and he might be a lot better. I think the projection is overreacting to his high HR rate in 2006 (19 HR in 132 IP). But the pessimism shown here regarding the rest of the rotation is warranted. John Maine had a 4.06 FIP this year, 4.77 in ’06… he’s nothing special. El Duque is old, homer-prone, and unlikely to give them more than 150 innings. Jorge Sosa has a mediocre K rate and no track record. Pelfrey has talent, but walked more batters than he struck out this year. The guy not listed here, who the Mets are counting on for big things, is Oliver Perez. I avoided listing Perez because he has a 5.00 ERC projection, substantially worse than the other guys… in other words, I’m giving the Mets the benefit of the doubt, figuring that if Perez does pitch at a 5.00 ERC level, he won’t get many innings. And as for why he projects so poorly... Perez wasn’t even within spitting distance of replacement level in either ’05 or ’06. And although his ’07 looks pretty good at first glance (3.56 ERA), it’s not nearly as impressive when you consider that he allowed 20 unearned runs. I have him at a 4.21 FIP, 3.88 ERC this year… league-average, basically. Combine one league-average season and two sub-replacement level seasons, and you get a guy who shouldn’t be counted on for anything much. Bullpen Wagner 3.22 Heilman 3.34 Feliciano 3.80 Sanchez 3.91 Smith 4.30 Mota 4.71 Schoeneweis 4.76 Not much to discuss here. Wagner-Heilman is a nice 1-2 punch, but they need depth. Lineup C: Torrealba 0.36 (.224, 1) 1B: Delgado 1.22 (.268, -2) 2B: Gotay 0.06 (.236, -5) SS: Reyes 4.76 (.288, 4) 3B: Wright 5.37 (.327, 5) LF: Alou 1.90 (.286, -10) CF: Beltran 4.53 (.290, 7) RF: Milledge 0.91 (.260, -3) Those are substantial dropoffs for Wright and Beltran. Beltran’s 2005 season is killing his projection; he’d jump from .290 to .308 if we threw it out. Not that we should. I suspect Met fans will be very disappointed if Milledge meets that projection, but aside from his raw physical ability, I don’t see any reason to think that he’s being sold short here. That .260 would represent the best year of his career so far. Needless to say, this team is badly in need of a second baseman. And, also needless to say, Yorvit doesn’t solve anything for them. Bench Castro .257 Easley .228 Anderson .249 Chavez .233 Gomez .229 Endy Chavez’s glove makes him a useful player, but the Mets could really use a guy on the bench (besides Castro) who can actually hit. If I Were in Charge, I Would: Be extremely inactive, by Mets standards. The Mets have glaring weaknesses at C, 2B, and in the rotation, and I’m sure they’d like to dump Delgado and find a 1B upgrade if possible. However, they don’t really have many tradeable assets (aside from guys like Wright and Reyes, who they’d never part with in a million years). They simply don’t have the pieces to make a deal for Santana or Bedard. And, unless they deal Milledge (in which case they’d have a hole in the outfield to address as well), they’re not getting a good #2 starter. Although, if the A’s do elect to rebuild, that old Milledge/Haren idea is worth revisiting. Anyway, with A-Rod and Posada re-signing in the Bronx, the only guys on the free agent market who the Mets should be interested in are Iguchi/Castillo. They’ve been linked with Lohse/Silva, but there’s no sense in signing one of those guys when they could just promote Kevin Mulvey and get 90% of the production that they’d get out of the FA signing. The upshot of all this is that it’s going to be awfully hard for the Mets to climb into the 88-89 projected win range. They’ve certainly got a shot at winning that many games, but if it happens, it will be because guys like Pedro, Milledge, Perez, and Delgado beat their projections, not because of anything that Omar Minaya does this winter.

11-18-2007, 12:01 AM	#2 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 855	Team Spotlight: San Francisco Giants Brian Sabean has been doing his best to run this franchise into the ground for the past five years or so. And now, with Bonds gone, his work is done: the last sliver of hope for the Giants has finally disappeared. Summary Statistics Rotation: +31 Bullpen: -1 Lineup: -130 Bench: -1 Defense: +29 W-L record: 73-89 No, that -130 isn’t a typo. That’s more than 70 runs worse than any other lineup in the game. Rotation Cain 3.44 Zito 4.24 Lincecum 3.10 Lowry 4.40 Misch 5.07 I projected Zito at 4.12 last year; he proceeded to put up a 4.53 FIP and a 3.89 ERC. I’d call that a pretty darn good projection. He’s as average as they come, and there’s no reason not to expect more of the same. Worst contract in the game right now. Cain and Lincecum combine for 42% of the team’s projected WAR. That’s unbelievable. Bullpen Wilson 3.74 Correia 3.66 Chulk 3.97 Atchison 3.94 Taschner 3.92 Hennessey 4.33 Messenger 4.39 This is actually not such a bad group, particularly considering that none of these guys are the least bit expensive. But it’s also a group lacking any sort of elite talent. Lineup C: Molina 0.92 (.240, -1) 1B: Niekro 0.10 (.244, 2) 2B: Durham -0.52 (.228, -6) SS: Vizquel 0.58 (.209, 12) 3B: Frandsen 1.01 (.242, 5) LF: Davis 1.09 (.238, 12) CF: Roberts 0.76 (.249, -5) RF: Winn 0.81 (.248, 3) Amazing, isn’t it? Not a single hitter over the .250 ABR mark. And Rajai Davis, acquired in the Matt Morris trade, is the best position player on the roster. This looks like an expansion team lineup, and not a very good one at that. Bench Alfonzo .224 Aurilia .228 Velez .232 Lewis .246 Schierholtz .252 Well, at least there isn’t much of a dropoff from the starters to the bench players… If I Were in Charge, I Would: Probably kill myself. But, otherwise, the plan is simple: sign every free agent they can find who will accept a contract paying $5 million per win or less. In other words, collect assets. They can’t accomplish anything via trade, because the only players in the entire organization who have any value at all are Lincecum and Cain, and those two are exactly the sorts of players that the Giants need more of. So the only thing they can do is bring in a bunch of veteran stopgaps on affordable contracts and hope that they play well enough to be traded for prospects in June or July. There’s absolutely no downside to this approach; the Giants are in desperate need of a talent infusion, and there’s only one way to get it right now. Of course, no matter how well they play their cards this winter, they have absolutely no chance of accomplishing anything in 2008. Or 2009. Or probably 2010 (keep in mind how good the rest of the division is). I’ve never before seen a team with so little reason for optimism.