Team Spotlight: San Diego Padres

Heltonfan · 11-20-2007, 12:22 AM

As magical as the last week of the season was for the boys in purple, that’s how miserable it was for the Padres. Cameron and Bradley injured… Hoffman choking… Peavy not coming through in the play-off game… ugly stuff, all around. But this team still managed to win 89 games with a payroll of only $58 million and minimal contribution from homegrown players (well, aside from the guy who won the Cy Young award, I guess), which is a real testament to Kevin Towers’ abilities. Towers is the best GM in baseball, and he’ll have the Padres at or near the top of the division again in 2008.

Summary Statistics
Rotation: +24
Bullpen: +11
Lineup: +14
Bench: +14
Defense: -7
W-L record: 86-76

Rotation

Peavy 3.15
Young 3.70
Maddux 4.17
Germano 4.62
Ledezma 5.06

Chris Young had a 2.68 ERC this year, but he did it thanks to a) a .241 BABIP and b) allowing only 10 HR in 173 IP, despite being a fairly extreme flyball pitcher. Amazingly, that .241 BABIP is actually higher than it was in ’06, so it’s safe to say that he’s got a real ability in this regard, but nevertheless, I think the projected regression is appropriate.

Maddux is getting hit by the aging factors here. He had a 3.92 ERC this year, and I don’t see why he can’t do that again in 2008.

Obviously, the back of the rotation is a problem.

Bullpen

Hoffman 3.41
Bell 3.05
Meredith 3.75
Thatcher 3.61
Hampson 4.22
Hensley 4.53
Cameron 4.71

Hoffman’s ERCs have been in the 2.60-3.00 range in each of the past three years, so, as with Maddux, the projection system just hates the fact that he’s 40 years old. That being said, even the great ones lose it at some point.

Look at that setup/middle relief trio below Hoffman. Heath Bell? Acquired for Ben Johnson. Cla Meredith? Acquired for Doug Mirabelli. Joe Thatcher? Acquired for Scott Linebrink. That’s three above-average, dirt-cheap relievers that Towers got in exchange for table scraps… and that’s only the tip of the iceberg. He also got Royce Ring in the Bell trade; Ring was later flipped for Wilfredo Ledezma, who might end up in the ’08 starting rotation. Meredith, of course, was acquired along with Josh Bard, who has become a very solid starting catcher. Thatcher was acquired along with two pitching prospects, one of whom, Will Inman, is only 20 years old and already projects close to replacement level.

Anyway, the Padres’ bullpen as currently constructed is very much like their rotation; excellent at the top, but not very deep. You can bet that Towers won’t let it remain that way.

Lineup

C: Bard 2.00 (.278, -10)
1B: Gonzalez 2.97 (.293, 0)
2B: Stansberry 1.02 (.242, 1)
SS: Greene 2.64 (.253, 5)
3B: Kouzmanoff 2.85 (.283, -3)
LF: Hairston 1.95 (.267, 3)
CF: Sledge 1.09 (.258, -7)
RF: Giles 1.17 (.263, -2)

Scott Hairston is another example of Towers’ bargain-hunting acumen. Acquired for a random AAA reliever, Hairston then proceeded to slug .644 in 87 at-bats for the Padres. He’s not anywhere near that good, of course, but he should be at least a league-average hitter. And his ZRs, albeit in limited playing time, are quite good.

Adrian Gonzalez has turned into a fine player indeed. I suspect that, if anything, that projection is conservative because it sees him as merely average defensively. And of course, I can’t talk about Gonzalez without mentioning the trade that brought him to San Diego: Gonzalez, Chris Young, and Terrmel Sledge for Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka. Unbelievable. The single best move Towers has ever made.

Projections hate Brian Giles. And not without reason. Todd Helton gets criticized for not having the kind of power numbers you want from someone playing an offense-heavy position, but he makes up for the unimpressive power numbers by hitting .320. Giles doesn’t do that; he’s basically Helton minus a few walks, a few doubles, and 35 points of batting average. That’s not an acceptable corner outfielder, particularly since his once-excellent range has deteriorated substantially.

The Padres’ 2B situation is pretty interesting. Craig Stansberry, the guy I have listed here, has a grand total of 7 big-league at-bats, and has never been considered any kind of top prospect… but he hit .273/.368/.446 in AAA this year, and the rest of his minor league career is very much in line with those numbers. So I don’t see much reason to doubt the projection. Of course, Stansberry isn’t the only in-house option. Matt Antonelli, the Padres’ first-round pick back in 2006, hit .294/.392/.476 in two months at AA Mobile and, due to his youth, actually projects a hair better than Stansberry for 2008, and certainly has the brighter long-term future.

Bench

Morton .242
Antonelli .247
Ensberg .266
Headley .263
Lane .247

Morgan Ensberg was acquired on waivers from the Astros, after Tim Purpura inexplicably decided that Ty Wigginton was the answer to Houston’s problems at the hot corner. He’s almost sure to be either non-tendered or traded, given the presence of Kouzmanoff or Chase Headley. The right move, of course, is to trade him; Ensberg is an average-ish regular making around $5 million, and that has plenty of value.

If I Were in Charge, I Would:

Find a fourth starter. I’d try to avoid the free agent market here. Maybe the A’s have soured on Gaudin or DiNardo. Maybe you can get Mark Hendrickson for Brian Giles (we know how Ned Colletti loves his veterans…). Capuano and Dave Bush are worth looking into as well. If all else fails, find an injured pitcher willing to take a one-year deal (Colon, Jennings, Lieber), or just bring back Brett Tomko.

Shore up the outfield. As alluded to above, I’d be trying to dump Giles if at all possible, so the Padres have to find solutions for both CF and RF. This is where Ensberg comes in. The Phillies have absolutely nothing at 3B… Ensberg for Jayson Werth? The Brewers need to move Braun to LF… Ensberg for Gabe Gross? If nothing else, Ensberg should be able to get them someone who can platoon with Sledge, thus taking care of one of the two outfield holes.

As for the other outfield hole, the Padres have some money to spend, and this is where they ought to spend it. Fukudome would be a great fit. Torii Hunter will probably be overpaid by someone, but the Padres ought to at least be in on the bidding. And there’s no reason why they shouldn’t bring Milton Bradley back.

11-20-2007, 12:22 AM	#1 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 841	Team Spotlight: San Diego Padres As magical as the last week of the season was for the boys in purple, that’s how miserable it was for the Padres. Cameron and Bradley injured… Hoffman choking… Peavy not coming through in the play-off game… ugly stuff, all around. But this team still managed to win 89 games with a payroll of only $58 million and minimal contribution from homegrown players (well, aside from the guy who won the Cy Young award, I guess), which is a real testament to Kevin Towers’ abilities. Towers is the best GM in baseball, and he’ll have the Padres at or near the top of the division again in 2008. Summary Statistics Rotation: +24 Bullpen: +11 Lineup: +14 Bench: +14 Defense: -7 W-L record: 86-76 Rotation Peavy 3.15 Young 3.70 Maddux 4.17 Germano 4.62 Ledezma 5.06 Chris Young had a 2.68 ERC this year, but he did it thanks to a) a .241 BABIP and b) allowing only 10 HR in 173 IP, despite being a fairly extreme flyball pitcher. Amazingly, that .241 BABIP is actually higher than it was in ’06, so it’s safe to say that he’s got a real ability in this regard, but nevertheless, I think the projected regression is appropriate. Maddux is getting hit by the aging factors here. He had a 3.92 ERC this year, and I don’t see why he can’t do that again in 2008. Obviously, the back of the rotation is a problem. Bullpen Hoffman 3.41 Bell 3.05 Meredith 3.75 Thatcher 3.61 Hampson 4.22 Hensley 4.53 Cameron 4.71 Hoffman’s ERCs have been in the 2.60-3.00 range in each of the past three years, so, as with Maddux, the projection system just hates the fact that he’s 40 years old. That being said, even the great ones lose it at some point. Look at that setup/middle relief trio below Hoffman. Heath Bell? Acquired for Ben Johnson. Cla Meredith? Acquired for Doug Mirabelli. Joe Thatcher? Acquired for Scott Linebrink. That’s three above-average, dirt-cheap relievers that Towers got in exchange for table scraps… and that’s only the tip of the iceberg. He also got Royce Ring in the Bell trade; Ring was later flipped for Wilfredo Ledezma, who might end up in the ’08 starting rotation. Meredith, of course, was acquired along with Josh Bard, who has become a very solid starting catcher. Thatcher was acquired along with two pitching prospects, one of whom, Will Inman, is only 20 years old and already projects close to replacement level. Anyway, the Padres’ bullpen as currently constructed is very much like their rotation; excellent at the top, but not very deep. You can bet that Towers won’t let it remain that way. Lineup C: Bard 2.00 (.278, -10) 1B: Gonzalez 2.97 (.293, 0) 2B: Stansberry 1.02 (.242, 1) SS: Greene 2.64 (.253, 5) 3B: Kouzmanoff 2.85 (.283, -3) LF: Hairston 1.95 (.267, 3) CF: Sledge 1.09 (.258, -7) RF: Giles 1.17 (.263, -2) Scott Hairston is another example of Towers’ bargain-hunting acumen. Acquired for a random AAA reliever, Hairston then proceeded to slug .644 in 87 at-bats for the Padres. He’s not anywhere near that good, of course, but he should be at least a league-average hitter. And his ZRs, albeit in limited playing time, are quite good. Adrian Gonzalez has turned into a fine player indeed. I suspect that, if anything, that projection is conservative because it sees him as merely average defensively. And of course, I can’t talk about Gonzalez without mentioning the trade that brought him to San Diego: Gonzalez, Chris Young, and Terrmel Sledge for Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka. Unbelievable. The single best move Towers has ever made. Projections hate Brian Giles. And not without reason. Todd Helton gets criticized for not having the kind of power numbers you want from someone playing an offense-heavy position, but he makes up for the unimpressive power numbers by hitting .320. Giles doesn’t do that; he’s basically Helton minus a few walks, a few doubles, and 35 points of batting average. That’s not an acceptable corner outfielder, particularly since his once-excellent range has deteriorated substantially. The Padres’ 2B situation is pretty interesting. Craig Stansberry, the guy I have listed here, has a grand total of 7 big-league at-bats, and has never been considered any kind of top prospect… but he hit .273/.368/.446 in AAA this year, and the rest of his minor league career is very much in line with those numbers. So I don’t see much reason to doubt the projection. Of course, Stansberry isn’t the only in-house option. Matt Antonelli, the Padres’ first-round pick back in 2006, hit .294/.392/.476 in two months at AA Mobile and, due to his youth, actually projects a hair better than Stansberry for 2008, and certainly has the brighter long-term future. Bench Morton .242 Antonelli .247 Ensberg .266 Headley .263 Lane .247 Morgan Ensberg was acquired on waivers from the Astros, after Tim Purpura inexplicably decided that Ty Wigginton was the answer to Houston’s problems at the hot corner. He’s almost sure to be either non-tendered or traded, given the presence of Kouzmanoff or Chase Headley. The right move, of course, is to trade him; Ensberg is an average-ish regular making around $5 million, and that has plenty of value. If I Were in Charge, I Would: Find a fourth starter. I’d try to avoid the free agent market here. Maybe the A’s have soured on Gaudin or DiNardo. Maybe you can get Mark Hendrickson for Brian Giles (we know how Ned Colletti loves his veterans…). Capuano and Dave Bush are worth looking into as well. If all else fails, find an injured pitcher willing to take a one-year deal (Colon, Jennings, Lieber), or just bring back Brett Tomko. Shore up the outfield. As alluded to above, I’d be trying to dump Giles if at all possible, so the Padres have to find solutions for both CF and RF. This is where Ensberg comes in. The Phillies have absolutely nothing at 3B… Ensberg for Jayson Werth? The Brewers need to move Braun to LF… Ensberg for Gabe Gross? If nothing else, Ensberg should be able to get them someone who can platoon with Sledge, thus taking care of one of the two outfield holes. As for the other outfield hole, the Padres have some money to spend, and this is where they ought to spend it. Fukudome would be a great fit. Torii Hunter will probably be overpaid by someone, but the Padres ought to at least be in on the bidding. And there’s no reason why they shouldn’t bring Milton Bradley back.