Team Spotlight: Pittsburgh Pirates

Heltonfan · 11-04-2007, 02:18 PM

Onto the Pirates. Who I see being a lot better than they were this year, but still a long ways away from contention. But hey, at least Dave Littlefield's gone...

Summary Statistics
Rotation +5
Bullpen -4
Lineup -51
Bench +10
Defense +13
W-L record: 78-84

Rotation

Gorzelanny 4.02
Snell 4.13
Duke 4.31
Morris 4.53
Maholm 4.55

This, folks, is an above-average National League starting rotation. Sad, huh? The Pirates have nothing resembling an elite pitcher, but they've got five guys who clearly belong in a big league rotation, which is more than a lot of NL teams can say for themselves. These projections basically see the Pirates' starting five repeating their '07 performance, but without the BABIP and ERA luck (Snell and Gorzelanny were lucky this year; Duke, Morris, and Maholm were unlucky).

Bullpen

Capps 3.41
Marte 3.63
Grabow 4.16
Torres 4.30
Rogers 4.60
Osoria 4.81
Bullington 5.26

Yeesh. That's a frighteningly thin bullpen. Again, the fact that this group is anywhere near league-average speaks volumes about the quality of pitching in the NL right now. Replacement level for relievers is around a 4.50 ERC... the Pirates need to do some work in the minor league free agent market to clean this mess up.

Lineup

C: Paulino 1.71 (.249, 2)
1B: LaRoche 1.86 (.273, 1)
2B: Sanchez 1.74 (.256, -1)
SS: Wilson 0.55 (.229, 0)
3B: Bautista -0.18 (.247, -10)
LF: Bay 2.75 (.281, 2)
CF: Duffy 1.70 (.240, 10)
RF: McLouth 1.17 (.255, 2)

Jack Wilson is making over $14 million over the next two years. Such is the legacy left by Dave Littlefield.

Jose Bautista has been given ample opportunity to learn how to play a decent third base. He has failed. Trouble is, the Pirates don't have a remotely capable replacement in the organization. Neil Walker might be the long-term answer here, but he's certainly not ready now (.226 ABR projection).

The projections see a real bounce-back season for Bay. His ABR dropped 60 points from its 2006 level; that's not normal. He's not a star anymore, but he should still be a quality player.

Anyway, the problems with this collection of position players are self-evident. Bay is the only above-average player, and Wilson and Bautista are absolute sinkholes.

Bench

Doumit ..267
Phelps .273
Castillo .222
Nady .255
Morgan .220

Nothing wrong with this group. Doumit's the best backup catcher in the game; he really ought to be starting. Phelps was a terrific scrap heap find.

If I Were in Charge, I Would: Rebuild. There's simply not enough talent here, or on the farm, for the Pirates to contend in the near future. You might think that, since they're projected at 78 wins right now, maybe a few key acquisitions could bump them up to the 85-win range. But it doesn't work that way, because, as we saw with the Red Sox, so many of their players are around league-average. The two positions at which they could in theory make huge upgrades are SS and 3B, and there's absolutely nothing available at those positions that fits their budget.

They're coming off a 68-win season, so expectations are low... the fan base can't shrink much more than it already has over the past 15 years. I don't see much downside to a sell-off. That means trading Morris, Marte, LaRoche, Sanchez, Wilson, and, if he gets off to a hot start, Bay (no reason to trade him right now, with his value at its lowest). This would be one of the lamest fire sales of all time, but it's better than doing nothing, and it's much better than buying a Kyle Lohse in a futile attempt to make 2008 interesting.

It all comes down to the farm system. For a small-market team like the Pirates, if they can't develop their own talent, nothing else really matters. They need to start collecting guys with some upside; Daniel Moskos was a terrible use of the #4 overall pick this year.

11-04-2007, 02:18 PM	#1 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 846	Team Spotlight: Pittsburgh Pirates Onto the Pirates. Who I see being a lot better than they were this year, but still a long ways away from contention. But hey, at least Dave Littlefield's gone... Summary Statistics Rotation +5 Bullpen -4 Lineup -51 Bench +10 Defense +13 W-L record: 78-84 Rotation Gorzelanny 4.02 Snell 4.13 Duke 4.31 Morris 4.53 Maholm 4.55 This, folks, is an above-average National League starting rotation. Sad, huh? The Pirates have nothing resembling an elite pitcher, but they've got five guys who clearly belong in a big league rotation, which is more than a lot of NL teams can say for themselves. These projections basically see the Pirates' starting five repeating their '07 performance, but without the BABIP and ERA luck (Snell and Gorzelanny were lucky this year; Duke, Morris, and Maholm were unlucky). Bullpen Capps 3.41 Marte 3.63 Grabow 4.16 Torres 4.30 Rogers 4.60 Osoria 4.81 Bullington 5.26 Yeesh. That's a frighteningly thin bullpen. Again, the fact that this group is anywhere near league-average speaks volumes about the quality of pitching in the NL right now. Replacement level for relievers is around a 4.50 ERC... the Pirates need to do some work in the minor league free agent market to clean this mess up. Lineup C: Paulino 1.71 (.249, 2) 1B: LaRoche 1.86 (.273, 1) 2B: Sanchez 1.74 (.256, -1) SS: Wilson 0.55 (.229, 0) 3B: Bautista -0.18 (.247, -10) LF: Bay 2.75 (.281, 2) CF: Duffy 1.70 (.240, 10) RF: McLouth 1.17 (.255, 2) Jack Wilson is making over $14 million over the next two years. Such is the legacy left by Dave Littlefield. Jose Bautista has been given ample opportunity to learn how to play a decent third base. He has failed. Trouble is, the Pirates don't have a remotely capable replacement in the organization. Neil Walker might be the long-term answer here, but he's certainly not ready now (.226 ABR projection). The projections see a real bounce-back season for Bay. His ABR dropped 60 points from its 2006 level; that's not normal. He's not a star anymore, but he should still be a quality player. Anyway, the problems with this collection of position players are self-evident. Bay is the only above-average player, and Wilson and Bautista are absolute sinkholes. Bench Doumit ..267 Phelps .273 Castillo .222 Nady .255 Morgan .220 Nothing wrong with this group. Doumit's the best backup catcher in the game; he really ought to be starting. Phelps was a terrific scrap heap find. If I Were in Charge, I Would: Rebuild. There's simply not enough talent here, or on the farm, for the Pirates to contend in the near future. You might think that, since they're projected at 78 wins right now, maybe a few key acquisitions could bump them up to the 85-win range. But it doesn't work that way, because, as we saw with the Red Sox, so many of their players are around league-average. The two positions at which they could in theory make huge upgrades are SS and 3B, and there's absolutely nothing available at those positions that fits their budget. They're coming off a 68-win season, so expectations are low... the fan base can't shrink much more than it already has over the past 15 years. I don't see much downside to a sell-off. That means trading Morris, Marte, LaRoche, Sanchez, Wilson, and, if he gets off to a hot start, Bay (no reason to trade him right now, with his value at its lowest). This would be one of the lamest fire sales of all time, but it's better than doing nothing, and it's much better than buying a Kyle Lohse in a futile attempt to make 2008 interesting. It all comes down to the farm system. For a small-market team like the Pirates, if they can't develop their own talent, nothing else really matters. They need to start collecting guys with some upside; Daniel Moskos was a terrible use of the #4 overall pick this year.