Team Spotlight: New York Mets

Heltonfan · 11-17-2007, 12:59 AM

The Mets will still be right in the thick of things in the NL East, but they won’t enter the year as clear favorites like they did in ’07. They’ve got a lot of work to do just to win 88 games again.

Summary Statistics
Rotation: -18
Bullpen: +7
Lineup: +48
Bench: 2
Defense: -6
W-L record: 83-79

Rotation

Martinez 3.69
Maine 4.43
Hernandez 4.76
Pelfrey 4.69
Sosa 4.98

Pedro’s probably a little better than that, and he might be a lot better. I think the projection is overreacting to his high HR rate in 2006 (19 HR in 132 IP). But the pessimism shown here regarding the rest of the rotation is warranted. John Maine had a 4.06 FIP this year, 4.77 in ’06… he’s nothing special. El Duque is old, homer-prone, and unlikely to give them more than 150 innings. Jorge Sosa has a mediocre K rate and no track record. Pelfrey has talent, but walked more batters than he struck out this year.

The guy not listed here, who the Mets are counting on for big things, is Oliver Perez. I avoided listing Perez because he has a 5.00 ERC projection, substantially worse than the other guys… in other words, I’m giving the Mets the benefit of the doubt, figuring that if Perez does pitch at a 5.00 ERC level, he won’t get many innings. And as for why he projects so poorly... Perez wasn’t even within spitting distance of replacement level in either ’05 or ’06. And although his ’07 looks pretty good at first glance (3.56 ERA), it’s not nearly as impressive when you consider that he allowed 20 unearned runs. I have him at a 4.21 FIP, 3.88 ERC this year… league-average, basically. Combine one league-average season and two sub-replacement level seasons, and you get a guy who shouldn’t be counted on for anything much.

Bullpen

Wagner 3.22
Heilman 3.34
Feliciano 3.80
Sanchez 3.91
Smith 4.30
Mota 4.71
Schoeneweis 4.76

Not much to discuss here. Wagner-Heilman is a nice 1-2 punch, but they need depth.

Lineup

C: Torrealba 0.36 (.224, 1)
1B: Delgado 1.22 (.268, -2)
2B: Gotay 0.06 (.236, -5)
SS: Reyes 4.76 (.288, 4)
3B: Wright 5.37 (.327, 5)
LF: Alou 1.90 (.286, -10)
CF: Beltran 4.53 (.290, 7)
RF: Milledge 0.91 (.260, -3)

Those are substantial dropoffs for Wright and Beltran. Beltran’s 2005 season is killing his projection; he’d jump from .290 to .308 if we threw it out. Not that we should.

I suspect Met fans will be very disappointed if Milledge meets that projection, but aside from his raw physical ability, I don’t see any reason to think that he’s being sold short here. That .260 would represent the best year of his career so far.

Needless to say, this team is badly in need of a second baseman. And, also needless to say, Yorvit doesn’t solve anything for them.

Bench

Castro .257
Easley .228
Anderson .249
Chavez .233
Gomez .229

Endy Chavez’s glove makes him a useful player, but the Mets could really use a guy on the bench (besides Castro) who can actually hit.

If I Were in Charge, I Would: Be extremely inactive, by Mets standards.

The Mets have glaring weaknesses at C, 2B, and in the rotation, and I’m sure they’d like to dump Delgado and find a 1B upgrade if possible. However, they don’t really have many tradeable assets (aside from guys like Wright and Reyes, who they’d never part with in a million years). They simply don’t have the pieces to make a deal for Santana or Bedard. And, unless they deal Milledge (in which case they’d have a hole in the outfield to address as well), they’re not getting a good #2 starter. Although, if the A’s do elect to rebuild, that old Milledge/Haren idea is worth revisiting.

Anyway, with A-Rod and Posada re-signing in the Bronx, the only guys on the free agent market who the Mets should be interested in are Iguchi/Castillo. They’ve been linked with Lohse/Silva, but there’s no sense in signing one of those guys when they could just promote Kevin Mulvey and get 90% of the production that they’d get out of the FA signing.

The upshot of all this is that it’s going to be awfully hard for the Mets to climb into the 88-89 projected win range. They’ve certainly got a shot at winning that many games, but if it happens, it will be because guys like Pedro, Milledge, Perez, and Delgado beat their projections, not because of anything that Omar Minaya does this winter.

unsung · 12-13-2007, 01:37 PM

Interesting. They have some work to do for sure. I am not very optimistic, but after this past season I doubt things get worse. At least the expectations might be down some.

Damonbok · 01-07-2008, 08:43 PM

...crickets....
Sad that the site is so quiet.
Anyways, I'd like to see your new projections for the team with the changes that have happened since you wrote the above.

Heltonfan · 01-11-2008, 09:14 AM

Castillo is a one-win upgrade over Gotay, and Schneider/Church is a one-win upgrade over Milledge (that one-win upgrade, of course, isn't nearly enough to justify giving up on Milledge's future... terrible trade). So I have the Mets projected at 85-77 now, three games behind Atlanta and three games ahead of the Phillies.

Johan Santana would be a four-win upgrade, making the Mets slight favorites in the NL East. But giving up the entire farm system for one year of Johan is a terrible idea.

11-17-2007, 12:59 AM	#1 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 847	Team Spotlight: New York Mets The Mets will still be right in the thick of things in the NL East, but they won’t enter the year as clear favorites like they did in ’07. They’ve got a lot of work to do just to win 88 games again. Summary Statistics Rotation: -18 Bullpen: +7 Lineup: +48 Bench: 2 Defense: -6 W-L record: 83-79 Rotation Martinez 3.69 Maine 4.43 Hernandez 4.76 Pelfrey 4.69 Sosa 4.98 Pedro’s probably a little better than that, and he might be a lot better. I think the projection is overreacting to his high HR rate in 2006 (19 HR in 132 IP). But the pessimism shown here regarding the rest of the rotation is warranted. John Maine had a 4.06 FIP this year, 4.77 in ’06… he’s nothing special. El Duque is old, homer-prone, and unlikely to give them more than 150 innings. Jorge Sosa has a mediocre K rate and no track record. Pelfrey has talent, but walked more batters than he struck out this year. The guy not listed here, who the Mets are counting on for big things, is Oliver Perez. I avoided listing Perez because he has a 5.00 ERC projection, substantially worse than the other guys… in other words, I’m giving the Mets the benefit of the doubt, figuring that if Perez does pitch at a 5.00 ERC level, he won’t get many innings. And as for why he projects so poorly... Perez wasn’t even within spitting distance of replacement level in either ’05 or ’06. And although his ’07 looks pretty good at first glance (3.56 ERA), it’s not nearly as impressive when you consider that he allowed 20 unearned runs. I have him at a 4.21 FIP, 3.88 ERC this year… league-average, basically. Combine one league-average season and two sub-replacement level seasons, and you get a guy who shouldn’t be counted on for anything much. Bullpen Wagner 3.22 Heilman 3.34 Feliciano 3.80 Sanchez 3.91 Smith 4.30 Mota 4.71 Schoeneweis 4.76 Not much to discuss here. Wagner-Heilman is a nice 1-2 punch, but they need depth. Lineup C: Torrealba 0.36 (.224, 1) 1B: Delgado 1.22 (.268, -2) 2B: Gotay 0.06 (.236, -5) SS: Reyes 4.76 (.288, 4) 3B: Wright 5.37 (.327, 5) LF: Alou 1.90 (.286, -10) CF: Beltran 4.53 (.290, 7) RF: Milledge 0.91 (.260, -3) Those are substantial dropoffs for Wright and Beltran. Beltran’s 2005 season is killing his projection; he’d jump from .290 to .308 if we threw it out. Not that we should. I suspect Met fans will be very disappointed if Milledge meets that projection, but aside from his raw physical ability, I don’t see any reason to think that he’s being sold short here. That .260 would represent the best year of his career so far. Needless to say, this team is badly in need of a second baseman. And, also needless to say, Yorvit doesn’t solve anything for them. Bench Castro .257 Easley .228 Anderson .249 Chavez .233 Gomez .229 Endy Chavez’s glove makes him a useful player, but the Mets could really use a guy on the bench (besides Castro) who can actually hit. If I Were in Charge, I Would: Be extremely inactive, by Mets standards. The Mets have glaring weaknesses at C, 2B, and in the rotation, and I’m sure they’d like to dump Delgado and find a 1B upgrade if possible. However, they don’t really have many tradeable assets (aside from guys like Wright and Reyes, who they’d never part with in a million years). They simply don’t have the pieces to make a deal for Santana or Bedard. And, unless they deal Milledge (in which case they’d have a hole in the outfield to address as well), they’re not getting a good #2 starter. Although, if the A’s do elect to rebuild, that old Milledge/Haren idea is worth revisiting. Anyway, with A-Rod and Posada re-signing in the Bronx, the only guys on the free agent market who the Mets should be interested in are Iguchi/Castillo. They’ve been linked with Lohse/Silva, but there’s no sense in signing one of those guys when they could just promote Kevin Mulvey and get 90% of the production that they’d get out of the FA signing. The upshot of all this is that it’s going to be awfully hard for the Mets to climb into the 88-89 projected win range. They’ve certainly got a shot at winning that many games, but if it happens, it will be because guys like Pedro, Milledge, Perez, and Delgado beat their projections, not because of anything that Omar Minaya does this winter.

12-13-2007, 01:37 PM	#2 (permalink)
unsung Moderator Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 51	Interesting. They have some work to do for sure. I am not very optimistic, but after this past season I doubt things get worse. At least the expectations might be down some.

01-07-2008, 08:43 PM	#3 (permalink)
Damonbok Rookie Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Catskill, NY Posts: 6	...crickets.... Sad that the site is so quiet. Anyways, I'd like to see your new projections for the team with the changes that have happened since you wrote the above.

01-11-2008, 09:14 AM	#4 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 847	Castillo is a one-win upgrade over Gotay, and Schneider/Church is a one-win upgrade over Milledge (that one-win upgrade, of course, isn't nearly enough to justify giving up on Milledge's future... terrible trade). So I have the Mets projected at 85-77 now, three games behind Atlanta and three games ahead of the Phillies. Johan Santana would be a four-win upgrade, making the Mets slight favorites in the NL East. But giving up the entire farm system for one year of Johan is a terrible idea.