NFC playoff picture - after week 15

[adeel]

Right now, it looks as though Minnesota's going to grab that sixth spot.

Dallas probably has home-field locked up with a two-game lead with four games to go.

In the Tampa/Seattle debate, Seattle's schedule is a bit tougher. Tampa, if it's any sort of a contender, should win at least 11 games. Seattle has a slightly tougher game against a quality team in Arizona this week.

[djwhokid]

with Green Bay injured and facing only one easy opponent in the last month (Oakland).

You have got to be kidding me. @ St Louis, @ Chicago, Detroit.

Which one of those games is hard?

Nobobdy wants to play the Vikings. They have a great RB in Adrian Peterson, another speed back in Chester Taylor, and a running QB.

Obviously stopping their run game is the key to beating the Vikings, but they have an underrated defense and the passing game is coming around.

[FiveStars]

bedir, I thought Arizona would play Seattle much closer than they did. Seattle simply destroyed the Cards. Obviously, I was wrong. With two road games left on their schedule, they're still likely to drop one of those (just looking at their road record this season) to finish 11-5 now.

And can you believe Tampa lost today against Houston? I guess that's why the games are played. No one would predict this kind of stuff. So it appears that I should have reversed the records of Seattle and Tampa.

So after today, it looks like no NFC team can beat Dallas even if Dallas gives the other team every opportunity to get the win. I can't say enough about Romo's composure on the field. He just keeps coming back even when things aren't going well for him. I still think they haven't been playing entirely well over the last several weeks, with the exception of the Green Bay game. I'm sticking with 14-2 and hoping they can prove me wrong by winning out.

Minnesota keeps rolling and Detroit looks to be finished after refusing to accept the gifts Dallas was trying to offer up.

So the teams haven't changed. Only the records. The story is the same, though. Everyone is playing for the right to be beaten in Dallas or Green Bay.

NFC East Winner: Dallas (14-2)
NFC North Winner: Green Bay (14-2)
NFC South Winner: Tampa Bay (10-6)
NFC West Winner: Seattle (11-5)

1st Wildcard: New York Giants (11-5)
2nd Wildcard: Minnesota Vikings (10-6)

[bedir than average]

You have got to be kidding me. @ St Louis, @ Chicago, Detroit.

Which one of those games is hard?

I didn't claim that any were hard, I said that they only had one easy opponent. The world isn't binary, and Detroit today played quite well, considering that final game could determine if they make the playoffs or not, it could be difficlut. Green Bay still has injury issues, remember Favre barely practiced this week, and he can't take the pain killers that others do.

but 5*, you are right, the best the Seahawks can hope for is matching up with Green Bay in the second round so Hasselbeck can finally score when he gets the ball.

[djwhokid]

So after today, it looks like no NFC team can beat Dallas even if Dallas gives the other team every opportunity to get the win. I can't say enough about Romo's composure on the field. He just keeps coming back even when things aren't going well for him. I still think they haven't been playing entirely well over the last several weeks, with the exception of the Green Bay game. I'm sticking with 14-2 and hoping they can prove me wrong by winning out.

Barring a serious injury, they should make the Super Bowl. If they had to play on the road, I could see them losing (their close losses were against the Bills and Lions on the road), but they have home field through out the playoffs wrapped up.

They are a complete team. A healthy Greg Ellis does not allow other teams to double DeMarcus Ware. Ken Hamlin, although vulnerable in coverage, is a significant upgrade over the starting safties they had the past few years.

They have a consistent kicker in Nick Folk. If they get Terry Glenn back, that should make their offense even more potent.

[djwhokid]

NFC East Winner: Dallas (14-2)
NFC North Winner: Green Bay (14-2)
NFC South Winner: Tampa Bay (11-5)
NFC West Winner: Seattle (10-6)

1st Wildcard: New York Giants (11-5)
2nd Wildcard: Minnesota Vikings (10-6)

I somewhat agree, but I see the seeding like this:

1. Dallas
2. Green Bay
3. Seattle
4. Tampa Bay
5. New York Giants
6. Minnesota.

ROUND 1
Minnesota @ Seattle

Interesting matchup. This will likely be a very close game. The Seahawks have been feasting on a weak schedule (they have only beaten one team with a winning record) but winning is winning. The Vikings are a completely different team now, starting the season 1-3, likely to finish the season 9-3.

I don't know if Tarvaris Jackson is a starting QB in this league, so how he will win a playoff game on the road, will be difficult. If the Seahawks can stop the run, they will win. If the Vikings can get a running game, stop the Seahawks running game (likely with the Hawks running woes) and blitz/confuse Hasselbeck causing him to turnover the ball, the Vikings could get the upset in Qwest Field.

Prediction as of now (unless Tarvaris Jackson proves me wrong):

Vikings 25
Seahawks 28

New York Giants @ Tampa Bay

The Bucs are an overrated team that like the Seahawks, have feasted on a weak schedule. They also have beaten only one winning team, the fading Titans. The Bucs have an average team, the only thing that really scares me about them is Joey Galloway (who has lost a step) and their pass defense (which is good, but hardly great). I think the Giants will win, but I wouldn't be surprised if Ronde Barber has like a 3 INT game.

Giants 28
Bucs 20

ROUND 2:

Seattle @ Green Bay

This game has upset written all over it. If you look at the stats, these teams are not that far off. Both teams pass a lot, kinda iffy running games, and inconsistent defensive play.

If this matchup happens, I fully expect Mike Holmgren to out coach Mike McCarthy and I wouldn't be surprised if Matt Hasselbeck outplays Brett Favre.

(OT)
Seahawks 38
Packers 35

New York Giants @ Dallas

We already know the Giants are not in the Cowboys league. For Eli Manning, this game would not be about winning, but if he can prove to America he is something special like his brother. If he has a good game, the Giants could make this respectable, if not, another easy win for Romo and the Boys.

Giants 25
Cowboys 40

Seattle @ Dallas

Pretty quick summary. Dallas is the much better team. Seahawks should be running on empty. Similar to the New Orleans Chicago NFC Championship last year or the Carolina Seattle NFC Championship two years ago.

Seahawks 17
Cowboys 35

[FiveStars]

I think both of the wild card teams have an excellent opportunity to win in the first round. I'd rather Dallas not have to play NY a third time. It's hard to beat a team three times in a season. I'd also rather not see Minnesota come to Dallas as I believe they are a hot team capable of really messing things up.

If Dallas met Seattle or Tampa in the playoffs, that would be interesting since they didn't play either of these teams in the regular season.

[Habsfan84]

I cannot believ that the Lions lost. They outplayed the Cowboys but just coul not get the W and that will put them on the outside looking in come playoff time.

[FiveStars]

A couple of observations about Dallas...

They continue to make good halftime adjustments. They often end up holding opponents to less points in the second half. This is another good example with Detroit scoring 20 in the first half and only 7 in the second.

Also, I continue to be dumbfounded that there is a debate regarding which back to go with full time. Marion Barber is obviously the back Dallas needs to be running 100% of the time. They should let Jones go after the season is complete. He's never been a consistent producer that excites anyone.

Finally, I'm not sure Detroit outplayed the Cowboys. It was the Cowboys giving the Lions every opportunity to win that game and Detroit just never took advantage of it. Of course, that's the difference between good teams and bad teams. Bad teams will rarely find a way to win even if it's presented to them on a silver (and blue) platter.

[Habsfan84]

Dude you call a touchdown with 18 seconds left skill. The Cowboys got lucky to come out of here with the win.

[FiveStars]

Oh, I admit they had some luck, but you can't deny that when the game was on the line, one team took advantage of their opportunities and the other didn't.

That fumble that bounced around and back into the Cowboys' hands. Yeah, lucky. The rest of the drive wasn't luck.

Witten fumbling on the 1 was lucky for the Lions. Did they do anything with that opportunity?

[DiamondDave]

I am not a believer in 'luck'.... outcomes are based on decisions, execution, reactions, and situations

[FiveStars]

Big games this week are:

Eagles @ Dallas - Dallas tries to stay ahead of Green Bay
Packers @ St. Louis - Packers must win to keep in the hunt for the 1st seed, however unlikely that may be at this point
Atlanta @ Tampa - Atlanta stinks, but you have to wonder about the quality of Tampa Bay after losing to Houston
Seahawks @ Panthers - Seattle seeks to hold onto the top seed in the wildcard round for whatever that's worth.
Bears @ Vikings - The Vikings should continue their winning ways this weekend to climb to 8-6. This is a team that I'm predicting to have an upset if they can win out to get that last wildcard spot. After the first round, they'd travel to Dallas where they'd be destroyed.
Washington @ Giants - New York should continue their run to eleven wins before they lose their final regular season game to New England. Who, knows, though. Maybe NE comes into that game flat since they'll have home field advantage easily wrapped up by that point.

If the Cowboys are going to drop a game, this one wouldn't be the one to lose. This home game is a must win for them. They finish the regular season with two road games against teams who would undoubtably love to play the spoiler.

Does anyone else think that the two wildcard teams (Minnesota and the Giants) may be looking stronger than Seattle and Tampa Bay?

[bedir than average]

5*,

The Pack hasn't locked up their 2 seed yet. Seattle has a five 5 game winning streak and if they make it to 8 and the Pack loses two Seattle gets the bye.

[LongtimeBravesFan]

There isn't a whole lot of drama with three games left. Most of the divisions are clinched or virtually clinched as are the wild card spots. If not for the undefeated/winless seasons drama there wouldn't be much excitement until the conference title games.