Team Spotlight: Minnesota Twins

Heltonfan · November 21st, 2007, 12:48 PM

Terry Ryan is gone, and judging from the fact that his replacement (Bill Smith. Dullest GM name ever?) seems to think that Craig Monroe has some value, there’s plenty of reason for Twins fans to be concerned. But there’s also plenty of reason to think that, if they play their cards right, the Twins could win 90 games a year for the foreseeable future.

Summary Statistics
Rotation: +10
Bullpen: +13
Lineup: -56
Bench: -5
Defense: +17
W-L record: 80-82

Rotation

Santana 3.09
Slowey 3.90
Baker 4.01
Garza 4.43
Bonser 4.57

Johan had a very rough year by his standards. He’s a wonderful pitcher, of course, but the long ball has always been his Achilles heel, and this year, he actually led the AL in home runs allowed. He no longer projects as the best left-hander in the division, although that says just as much about C.C. Sabathia’s ascension as it does about Johan’s fall.

I’m a believer in Matt Garza. He had a 3.98 FIP this year, and I’m guessing that his ’08 performance will end up closer to that number than to his projection.

Of course, there’s an elephant in the room here. Francisco Liriano, if healthy, is the best pitcher on the planet, basically Johan without the HR problem. You can add one win to the Twins’ 2008 record for every 60 innings you think they’ll get out of Liriano.

Bullpen

Nathan 2.37
Rincon 3.66
Guerrier 3.78
Neshek 3.83
Crain 3.82
Reyes 3.97
Perkins 4.59

Neshek’s probably better than that; ignore his 2005 season (in AA), and his projection drops half a run.

Another year, another outstanding Twins bullpen. Nothing new here.

Lineup

C: Mauer 5.90 (.318, 8)
1B: Morneau 3.37 (.297, 1)
2B: Casilla -0.47 (.231, -5)
SS: Bartlett 2.65 (.251, 7)
3B: Punto 0.02 (.223, 5)
LF: Kubel 1.63 (.270, -4)
CF: Tyner 0.09 (.226, 1)
RF: Cuddyer 2.84 (.281, 1)
DH: Monroe -0.66 (.240)

There are three things to notice about this lineup.

First, Joe Mauer is really, really good. The projections expect him to regain some of the power he showed during his 2006 should-have-been-MVP season, and he’s a wonderful defensive catcher. Incidentally, he’ll be making $12.5 million in 2010, which would otherwise have been his first year of free agency; factoring in inflation, and assuming that Mauer’s abilities remain stable over the next two years (as they should, given his age), I figure he’d be in line to make $36 million as a free agent. Hell of a contract, huh? And one more fun Mauer fact: with standard inflation and aging, his value as a free agent will actually hit the $50 million mark in 2016.

Second, despite Mauer’s best efforts, the Twins’ offense stinks.

Finally, and most importantly, while this is a clearly subpar group of hitters, it’s also the most easily improved group that I’ve ever seen. I’ve mentioned how some teams (Arizona, Boston, Pittsburgh) have a bunch of players clustered around league average, which makes it hard to find significant upgrades? The Twins are the complete opposite of that. Look at that lineup again: they’re at or below replacement level at four positions. Amazing, isn’t it? Replace Casilla, Punto, Tyner, and Monroe with league-average players, and the Twins are an 89-win team.

Bench

Redmond .240
Jones .234
Tolbert .233
Buscher .229

Nope, nobody here who can hit either.

If I Were in Charge, I Would: Have my cake and eat it too. Everything I’ve read about the Twins has presented their offseason strategy as an either/or proposition: either try to make a run in 2008, or deal Santana and Nathan. But, because of the way their talent is distributed, I don’t see why they can’t do both.

Let’s say that they can get Kemp, LaRoche, and, I don’t know, Hong-Chih Kuo for Santana. I think this is reasonable; it might even be a conservative estimate of Johan’s trade value (and of Ned Colletti’s stupidity). Stick Liriano in the rotation, Kuo in the bullpen (I have him projected at 3.22 as a reliever; he’s a significant asset), Kemp in CF, and LaRoche at 3B. All of a sudden, this is a projected 85-win team. Basically, all we’re doing here is swapping Johan for three players who, combined, match Johan’s 2008 value, and replacing Johan in the rotation with Liriano.

Now, to address the Nathan situation. He’s an incredibly marketable asset, a truly elite closer (a notch above Rivera, even) making only $6 million, guaranteed to bring a draft pick or two after the season. Who’s looking for a closer? Looks to me like Milwaukee, Cincinnati, and Atlanta. Maybe Tampa Bay.

Let’s focus on Cincinnati. The Reds’ bullpen, as discussed in their team spotlight earlier, is an absolute disaster. Nathan would be a three-win upgrade for them – and given what Wayne Krivsky has paid for relief help in the past, I suspect that he would value Nathan at least as highly as I do. Plus, Krivsky has a good relationship with the Twins. And he has a couple assets to trade that would fit wonderfully in Minnesota. The first is Jeff Keppinger. I’ve mentioned Keppinger a few times already; he put up a .279 ABR last year, projects at .264, and is a fine defensive middle infielder. He ought to be starting in Cincy, of course, but I see no reason to believe that Krivsky understands that… in the Reds’ eyes, Keppinger is probably no more than a bench player. Which makes him entirely obtainable, but at the same time a laughably small return for a player of Nathan’s stature. Thus bringing me to the other guy that the Twins should be interested in: Adam Dunn.

Keppinger and Dunn for Nathan, from the Reds’ standpoint, looks pretty good. Dunn is worth two wins above Norris Hopper; Nathan, as I said above, would be a three-win upgrade in the bullpen. Figure that the loss of Keppinger costs them half a win, and all told, they’re improving themselves by half a win while saving $7 million (the difference in salaries between Dunn and Nathan). Hard not to like that. Again, this is all based on the assumption that the Reds have no clue how valuable Keppinger really is, but I think that assumption is an entirely reasonable one.

Keppinger and Dunn for Nathan, from the Twins’ standpoint, is an absolute slam-dunk. They lose 2.5 wins in the bullpen, but gain 5.5-6 wins offensively (Dunn at DH, Keppinger at 2B)… so that’s a 3-win upgrade at a cost of $7 million. The draft picks are a wash, since both Nathan and Dunn are Type-A guys. And, as if the 3-win upgrade wasn’t justification enough, the $7 million cost is more than offset by the value of having Keppinger under club control for several more years.

What we’ve done here is swapped three players, each of which has more value to their new team than to their old team. Dunn is more valuable to the Twins because he can DH, and because the Twins have no other remotely viable candidates to fill that role. Nathan is more valuable to the Reds because the Twins have some other solid relievers, whereas the Reds have no one. And Keppinger is more valuable to the Twins because the Reds have Alex Gonzalez and Brandon Phillips (and because Krivsky isn’t smart enough to figure out that Gonzalez, not Keppinger, is the guy to trade).

So now we’ve filled all four of the lineup holes (Kemp, LaRoche, Keppinger, Dunn), and we have an 88-89 win team. We’ve cut the payroll by $6 million (Johan’s and Dunn’s salaries cancel each other out, leaving Nathan as the difference-maker), and in addition to that, we ought to have some money to spend with Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva coming off the books. Looks to me like there’s enough to grab a starting pitcher (just for depth, a Tomko type), a reliever (Gagne would be a great fit here… he could be promised the closer’s job going into the season, but if he tanks, the Twins have options), and an outfielder. That outfielder could be Bobby Kielty, to platoon with Kubel. Or it could be Milton Bradley, with the idea that Kubel and Kemp would share one outfield spot when Bradley is healthy. Put it all together, and we’re looking at 91 wins or so, neck and neck with the Tribe at the top of the AL Central. Now, obviously, the odds of the Twins being able to pull off precisely these two trades are pretty slim, but the point is simply that they have a lot to gain here.

There’s a fascinating conclusion to be drawn from all this: not only is trading Santana and Nathan a no-brainer for the long-term, it’s also the only way (besides luck, of course) for this team to make the playoffs in 2008. Because if they keep those two, even with a healthy Liriano, this will be no more than an 83-win team. They’ve still got the four gaping holes in the lineup, of course, but how are they going to fill them? Through free agency? It’s not possible. There isn’t a single worthwhile free agent 3B. All of the good free agent outfielders, with the possible exception of Bradley, are going to be well out of the Twins’ price range (keep in mind that holding onto Santana and Nathan gives them less money to play with than they’d have under my scenario). Which leaves 2B. Let’s be kind and assume that they’re able to land Iguchi… we’re up to 85 wins now, nowhere near the level that they could reach with a couple good trades. I think the point is clear.

Well, this turned out to be quite a bit longer than I had anticipated. I hope it was interesting.

November 21st, 2007, 12:48 PM	#1 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 903	Team Spotlight: Minnesota Twins Terry Ryan is gone, and judging from the fact that his replacement (Bill Smith. Dullest GM name ever?) seems to think that Craig Monroe has some value, there’s plenty of reason for Twins fans to be concerned. But there’s also plenty of reason to think that, if they play their cards right, the Twins could win 90 games a year for the foreseeable future. Summary Statistics Rotation: +10 Bullpen: +13 Lineup: -56 Bench: -5 Defense: +17 W-L record: 80-82 Rotation Santana 3.09 Slowey 3.90 Baker 4.01 Garza 4.43 Bonser 4.57 Johan had a very rough year by his standards. He’s a wonderful pitcher, of course, but the long ball has always been his Achilles heel, and this year, he actually led the AL in home runs allowed. He no longer projects as the best left-hander in the division, although that says just as much about C.C. Sabathia’s ascension as it does about Johan’s fall. I’m a believer in Matt Garza. He had a 3.98 FIP this year, and I’m guessing that his ’08 performance will end up closer to that number than to his projection. Of course, there’s an elephant in the room here. Francisco Liriano, if healthy, is the best pitcher on the planet, basically Johan without the HR problem. You can add one win to the Twins’ 2008 record for every 60 innings you think they’ll get out of Liriano. Bullpen Nathan 2.37 Rincon 3.66 Guerrier 3.78 Neshek 3.83 Crain 3.82 Reyes 3.97 Perkins 4.59 Neshek’s probably better than that; ignore his 2005 season (in AA), and his projection drops half a run. Another year, another outstanding Twins bullpen. Nothing new here. Lineup C: Mauer 5.90 (.318, 8) 1B: Morneau 3.37 (.297, 1) 2B: Casilla -0.47 (.231, -5) SS: Bartlett 2.65 (.251, 7) 3B: Punto 0.02 (.223, 5) LF: Kubel 1.63 (.270, -4) CF: Tyner 0.09 (.226, 1) RF: Cuddyer 2.84 (.281, 1) DH: Monroe -0.66 (.240) There are three things to notice about this lineup. First, Joe Mauer is really, really good. The projections expect him to regain some of the power he showed during his 2006 should-have-been-MVP season, and he’s a wonderful defensive catcher. Incidentally, he’ll be making $12.5 million in 2010, which would otherwise have been his first year of free agency; factoring in inflation, and assuming that Mauer’s abilities remain stable over the next two years (as they should, given his age), I figure he’d be in line to make $36 million as a free agent. Hell of a contract, huh? And one more fun Mauer fact: with standard inflation and aging, his value as a free agent will actually hit the $50 million mark in 2016. Second, despite Mauer’s best efforts, the Twins’ offense stinks. Finally, and most importantly, while this is a clearly subpar group of hitters, it’s also the most easily improved group that I’ve ever seen. I’ve mentioned how some teams (Arizona, Boston, Pittsburgh) have a bunch of players clustered around league average, which makes it hard to find significant upgrades? The Twins are the complete opposite of that. Look at that lineup again: they’re at or below replacement level at four positions. Amazing, isn’t it? Replace Casilla, Punto, Tyner, and Monroe with league-average players, and the Twins are an 89-win team. Bench Redmond .240 Jones .234 Tolbert .233 Buscher .229 Nope, nobody here who can hit either. If I Were in Charge, I Would: Have my cake and eat it too. Everything I’ve read about the Twins has presented their offseason strategy as an either/or proposition: either try to make a run in 2008, or deal Santana and Nathan. But, because of the way their talent is distributed, I don’t see why they can’t do both. Let’s say that they can get Kemp, LaRoche, and, I don’t know, Hong-Chih Kuo for Santana. I think this is reasonable; it might even be a conservative estimate of Johan’s trade value (and of Ned Colletti’s stupidity). Stick Liriano in the rotation, Kuo in the bullpen (I have him projected at 3.22 as a reliever; he’s a significant asset), Kemp in CF, and LaRoche at 3B. All of a sudden, this is a projected 85-win team. Basically, all we’re doing here is swapping Johan for three players who, combined, match Johan’s 2008 value, and replacing Johan in the rotation with Liriano. Now, to address the Nathan situation. He’s an incredibly marketable asset, a truly elite closer (a notch above Rivera, even) making only $6 million, guaranteed to bring a draft pick or two after the season. Who’s looking for a closer? Looks to me like Milwaukee, Cincinnati, and Atlanta. Maybe Tampa Bay. Let’s focus on Cincinnati. The Reds’ bullpen, as discussed in their team spotlight earlier, is an absolute disaster. Nathan would be a three-win upgrade for them – and given what Wayne Krivsky has paid for relief help in the past, I suspect that he would value Nathan at least as highly as I do. Plus, Krivsky has a good relationship with the Twins. And he has a couple assets to trade that would fit wonderfully in Minnesota. The first is Jeff Keppinger. I’ve mentioned Keppinger a few times already; he put up a .279 ABR last year, projects at .264, and is a fine defensive middle infielder. He ought to be starting in Cincy, of course, but I see no reason to believe that Krivsky understands that… in the Reds’ eyes, Keppinger is probably no more than a bench player. Which makes him entirely obtainable, but at the same time a laughably small return for a player of Nathan’s stature. Thus bringing me to the other guy that the Twins should be interested in: Adam Dunn. Keppinger and Dunn for Nathan, from the Reds’ standpoint, looks pretty good. Dunn is worth two wins above Norris Hopper; Nathan, as I said above, would be a three-win upgrade in the bullpen. Figure that the loss of Keppinger costs them half a win, and all told, they’re improving themselves by half a win while saving $7 million (the difference in salaries between Dunn and Nathan). Hard not to like that. Again, this is all based on the assumption that the Reds have no clue how valuable Keppinger really is, but I think that assumption is an entirely reasonable one. Keppinger and Dunn for Nathan, from the Twins’ standpoint, is an absolute slam-dunk. They lose 2.5 wins in the bullpen, but gain 5.5-6 wins offensively (Dunn at DH, Keppinger at 2B)… so that’s a 3-win upgrade at a cost of $7 million. The draft picks are a wash, since both Nathan and Dunn are Type-A guys. And, as if the 3-win upgrade wasn’t justification enough, the $7 million cost is more than offset by the value of having Keppinger under club control for several more years. What we’ve done here is swapped three players, each of which has more value to their new team than to their old team. Dunn is more valuable to the Twins because he can DH, and because the Twins have no other remotely viable candidates to fill that role. Nathan is more valuable to the Reds because the Twins have some other solid relievers, whereas the Reds have no one. And Keppinger is more valuable to the Twins because the Reds have Alex Gonzalez and Brandon Phillips (and because Krivsky isn’t smart enough to figure out that Gonzalez, not Keppinger, is the guy to trade). So now we’ve filled all four of the lineup holes (Kemp, LaRoche, Keppinger, Dunn), and we have an 88-89 win team. We’ve cut the payroll by $6 million (Johan’s and Dunn’s salaries cancel each other out, leaving Nathan as the difference-maker), and in addition to that, we ought to have some money to spend with Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva coming off the books. Looks to me like there’s enough to grab a starting pitcher (just for depth, a Tomko type), a reliever (Gagne would be a great fit here… he could be promised the closer’s job going into the season, but if he tanks, the Twins have options), and an outfielder. That outfielder could be Bobby Kielty, to platoon with Kubel. Or it could be Milton Bradley, with the idea that Kubel and Kemp would share one outfield spot when Bradley is healthy. Put it all together, and we’re looking at 91 wins or so, neck and neck with the Tribe at the top of the AL Central. Now, obviously, the odds of the Twins being able to pull off precisely these two trades are pretty slim, but the point is simply that they have a lot to gain here. There’s a fascinating conclusion to be drawn from all this: not only is trading Santana and Nathan a no-brainer for the long-term, it’s also the only way (besides luck, of course) for this team to make the playoffs in 2008. Because if they keep those two, even with a healthy Liriano, this will be no more than an 83-win team. They’ve still got the four gaping holes in the lineup, of course, but how are they going to fill them? Through free agency? It’s not possible. There isn’t a single worthwhile free agent 3B. All of the good free agent outfielders, with the possible exception of Bradley, are going to be well out of the Twins’ price range (keep in mind that holding onto Santana and Nathan gives them less money to play with than they’d have under my scenario). Which leaves 2B. Let’s be kind and assume that they’re able to land Iguchi… we’re up to 85 wins now, nowhere near the level that they could reach with a couple good trades. I think the point is clear. Well, this turned out to be quite a bit longer than I had anticipated. I hope it was interesting.