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Old 07-31-2007, 10:11 PM   6 links from elsewhere to this Post. Click to view. #1 (permalink)
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Default Best BullPen for the playoff run?

Which teams in the AL and NL have the best bullpens for the stretch run? The RedSox added Eric Gagne to their quality releivers, the Braves added Octavio Dotel, the Seattle Mariners just got Mark Lowe back from injury, while the LA Angels of Anaheim stood pat and the San Diego Padres shipped Scott Linebrink onwards to Milwaukee. Now by best I'm going to say best Closer through 6th man, but with diminishing returns for great guys that are hardly used in high leverage situations

By Bullpen ERA
Boston 2.74
San Diego 3.09

Using Fangraphs.com to look at team WPA by Relievers I'm only going to list the teams from the opener
Boston - 7.85
Atlanta - 2.78
LAAngels - 4.27
San Diego - 5.91
Milwaukee - 2.16
Seattle - 6.47

Also from Fangraphs, this time using their leaderboard for Reliever WPA

Putz is tops, and by far, but the Red Sox have three in the top 25 now, and the Padres, Angels, Twins and Diamondbacks all have two.

Milwaukee and Atlanta each helped themselves in areas of need, where as Boston is looking now to have probably the best top three relievers in the game with Papplebon, Okajima and Gagne. Seattle without a doubt has the best Ace Reliever in baseball right now.
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Old 07-31-2007, 10:40 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Exploring the Seattle Pen just a bit more

They have Putz at top with his 0.89 ERA, his 0.58 WHIP and his 4.61 WPA.

Next is shutdown lefty George Sherrill, who has a fine 1.33 WPA, but it is his numbers v lefties that impress me so, you know that sOPS+ of 8

Sean Green has been amazing lately earning himself the 8th inning RH setup role. He has a modest 0.84 WPA, but as USSMariner has said, he is "criminally underrated."

Last years first round pick, 5th overall, is fireballer Brandon Morrow. He's got some issues with the walks, particularly in his second trip around the league, but he is back on track which you can see in his graphs, kinda. He as a 0.80 WPA.

For the SLOOGY (that's Second Lefty One Out Guy) the Mariners have Eric O'Flaherty. He isn't in Sherrill's league, but that just means he isn't the best in baseball at the LOOGY role. Eric O has himself a 40 sOPS+ v lefties to go with his 0.29 WPA. He wasn't on the roster much in April and May, so this keeps his WPA down quite a bit, at least if he's as good as I think he is.

Lastly the Mariners just got back Mark Lowe. Lowe came on the scene late last year to become a good to great setup man. His 225 ERA+ and 1.50 WPA added were in just 15 games where he struck the opposition out at 9.64 K/9 rate.

This is a bullpen with Lefty/Righty balance that is topped off by the best stopper in baseball. I'm willing to listen to other presentations, but without this bullpen has been the primary reason why a team with a mediocre starting rotation and inconsistent offense is contending.
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Old 07-31-2007, 10:49 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Hmm. I have to admit, my comment on the Sox board about the Sox having the best pen in the league when they picked up Gagne was a bit casual.

The Sox dont' really have 2 LOOGY - Lopez is used that way, but Okajima has been used strictly as a setup guy.

Here's why I liked the Sox:

Top 3 is great - Papelbon, Gagne, and Okajima are just amazing.

After that, the Sox have 2 more guys who can setup in Delcarmen and Timlin, a LOOGY in Lopez and Kyle Snyder, who has to be one of the best long men in the game. It hasn't really helped much, cause the Sox can't hit late in the game when they are down, but the Sox tend to keep the game pretty close.

Except for Tavarez, there is no one in the Sox pen that worries me when he comes in the game... and Tavarez is a pretty decent reliever.
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Old 08-01-2007, 06:46 AM   #4 (permalink)
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Doesn't Shawn Green patrol the outfield for the Mets?
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Old 08-01-2007, 08:52 AM   #5 (permalink)
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Fixed
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Old 08-01-2007, 08:12 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Notable in this discussion is that the Seattle club developed all of their talent themselves and are paying less than 10M$ (counting Reitsma, Rhodes and 1/2 year of Mateo) for this performance. That means though the Bullpen pitches nearly 3 IP a game, for about 15-20% overall impact on the outcome of the game, they are spending less than 10% of their payroll on it.

Now a smarter team would apply those savings to good players...
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Old 08-03-2007, 07:31 PM   #7 (permalink)
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I think one of the things that makes for a quality pen is *not* spending a lot of money on setup guys. You can spend a lot for a closer, if they are actually a good pitcher, but setup guys are often very inconsistent. This makes a lot of sense, since they aren't either closing or starting!!
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Old 08-04-2007, 01:07 PM   #8 (permalink)
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The Mariners and RedSox face off this weekend. I'm going to keep running totals of bullpen performance over in that thread. Post the results here.

I'm rather surprised that none of the Braves fans have stood up for their pen
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Old 08-05-2007, 09:45 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Neither pen covered itself in glory. The mariners pen probably wins the battle of the pens - the Sox pen cost them the game on friday... but it did have the save on sat.
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Old 08-05-2007, 10:31 PM   #10 (permalink)
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I haven't run the numbers after today's disaster. I'll post them here when I do.
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Old 08-06-2007, 08:01 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Running Totals
Boston : WPA +.010, 7H, 5BB, 4ER, 1HR, 6K, 7GB, 10FB, 5LD, 7.1IP
Have used Delcamen, Lopez, Timlin, Gagne, Pappelbon, Okajima, Snyder

Seattle : WPA +.400 12H, 2BB, 5ER, 0HR, 12K, 15GB, 12FB, 4LD, 10.2IP
Have used Green, Sherrill, Lowe, O'Flaherty, Putz, Morrow, Roland-Smith

Mariners did better in leverage situations, were better at striking guys out, aat controlling walks, but had an issue giving up hits.
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