Matsuzaka predictions for 2007

[JoeCoolMan24]

I have noticed my projects are strikingly similar to those of professional projections.

Mine: 15 wins, 193 IP, 189 K's, 3.43 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.8 K/9
Roto: 15 wins, 210 IP, 191 K's, 3.41 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.2 K/9
ZiPS: 15 wins, 186 IP, 130 K's, 3.44 ERA, 1.18 WHIp, 6.3 K/9
Hardball Times: 215 IP, 188 K's, 3.44 ERA, 7.9 K/9
PECOTA: 187 IP, 166 K's, 4.01 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8 K/9
Ron Shandler: 15 wins, 185 IP, 195 K's, 3.46 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 9.5 K/9


I am very happy with myself that I happen to be so very close to each one of these experts. And just so you know, those predictions came out on the 20th, I made mine on the 19th, so you know I didnt just copy of these guys.

http://www.rotoauthority.com/2006/12...e_matsuza.html

What are your predictions?

[Chris]

I won't bother predicting how many games he wins considering that has more to do with then just how good a pitcher he is.

However, I see anywhere from a 3-4.5 ERA with a K/9 from 7-9.

It's hard to predict.

[M's Fan]

I'd say 14-18 wins, 8-10 losses, 3.75-4.25 ERA and like 175-200 K's. It's hard to perdict IP's, but I say he'll surface around 200. I think he is going to have a very tough time against some of the AL powerhouses. NY, Texas, ect. ML batters can read pitches a bit better than in Japan, oh, and they are juiced.

I don't really see this guy being amazing, I think it was the worst signing of the year based on money for value, when you include the posting fee, other than the DL Drew signing.

[BigBadBlueBird]

Personally, I want to see him fall flat on his face. Partly because he is a Red Sock, and partly to put an end to these ridiculous posting fees.

[JoeCoolMan24]

Originally Posted by Chris

I won't bother predicting how many games he wins considering that has more to do with then just how good a pitcher he is.

However, I see anywhere from a 3-4.5 ERA with a K/9 from 7-9.

It's hard to predict.

I have to say, thats not very bold. Giving him a 1.5 ERA range is like saying he will get between 9-17 wins next year. Between 3.00 and 4.50 is what MOST pitchers get.

Its not like you will die if your wrong, just throw down some educated numbers.

[Goose]

Something tells me that him falling flat on his face, won't be what puts an end to the redicolous posting fees. It might stop Boston from bidding that high again, but I doubt it will stop all together.

[Yankee1012]

Heres my predictions:

15 wins, 195 IP, 180 K's, 3.98 ERA, 1.40 Whip (I really dont care for this catagory), 7.9 K/9

[bedir than average]

Originally Posted by JoeCoolMan24

I have to say, thats not very bold. Giving him a 1.5 ERA range is like saying he will get between 9-17 wins next year. Between 3.00 and 4.50 is what MOST pitchers get.

Well, no, its not what "Most pitchers" get. Considering that 4.5 is basically the average AL ERA. It is also not like saying he will get any win total as wins have nearly nothing to do with a pitcher's talent.

Daisuke will have a mid 3s ERA (3.3-3.7) with a K/9 of about 7.5, BB/9 of about 2.0 while giving up less than 1 HR/9. He will throw about 210 Innings.

[JoeCoolMan24]

Originally Posted by bedir than average

Well, no, its not what "Most pitchers" get. Considering that 4.5 is basically the average AL ERA. It is also not like saying he will get any win total as wins have nearly nothing to do with a pitcher's talent.

Daisuke will have a mid 3s ERA (3.3-3.7) with a K/9 of about 7.5, BB/9 of about 2.0 while giving up less than 1 HR/9. He will throw about 210 Innings.

Thats not what I mean. I am saying neither one is being very bold. I could also say its the same as saying the Bears will win 6-13 games next year, same thing, not very bold.

[JoeCoolMan24]

Originally Posted by Yankee1012

Heres my predictions:

15 wins, 195 IP, 180 K's, 3.98 ERA, 1.40 Whip (I really dont care for this catagory), 7.9 K/9

Those dont add up. If you get 180K's in 195 IP, your K/9 would be 8.3. The K/9 was not a guess, its just a calculated stat of what your IP and K's were.

[bravesmasta]

Here are my predictions
They re pretty close to everyone else's
14 wins,4.13 ERA,1.40 WHIP,6 K/9

I'll say,good thing Dewon is'nt here

[JoeCoolMan24]

Originally Posted by bravesmasta

Here are my predictions
They re pretty close to everyone else's
14 wins,4.13 ERA,1.40 WHIP,6 K/9

I'll say,good thing Dewon is'nt here

You want to see Dewon's predictions from over at 2k? He is so confident is this he made it his signatures in BIG red bold.


22 wins, 231 IP, 254 K's, 2.31 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 9.9 K/9

[Goose]

He must think DM's stats are going to directly translate to that US.

If that were the case, Ichiro would be hitting 20-25 bombs every year to go with the high averages, and Matsui would be always near the top of the homerun leader board. Also Kenji Johjima would of hit something like .320/.380/.550 instead of the .291/.332/.451 that he did hit.

[bravesmasta]

Originally Posted by JoeCoolMan24

You want to see Dewon's predictions from over at 2k? He is so confident is this he made it his signatures in BIG red bold.


22 wins, 231 IP, 254 K's, 2.31 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 9.9 K/9

That kid needs treatment!I wonder if they have it for extreme homerism
Today he said Zito was past his prime .Well that is why I'm here,to be able to talk baseball without
Dewon (I'm sportslover by the way )

[JoeCoolMan24]

Originally Posted by Goose

He must think DM's stats are going to directly translate to that US.

If that were the case, Ichiro would be hitting 20-25 bombs every year to go with the high averages, and Matsui would be always near the top of the homerun leader board. Also Kenji Johjima would of hit something like .320/.380/.550 instead of the .291/.332/.451 that he did hit.

Actually, he must think that MLB Hitting is WORSE than in Japan. Becuase I am pretty sure Matz has never won more than 17 games in Japan.