Bill James' HOF predictions from 1994

[Triad]

In his 1994 book "The Politics of Glory: How Baseball's Hall of Fame Really Works", Bill James listed who he thought the BBWAA would elect from 1995-2109. These aren't necessarily who he would have voted for, but how he thought the writers would vote. Players since elected are in bold. Year in parentheses is the year James thought they would get elected.

1B - Don Mattingly (2014)
1B - Eddie Murray (2002)
1B - Frank Thomas (2017)
1B - Fred McGriff (2016)
1B – Jeff Bagwell (2019)
1B - Steve Garvey (1997)

2B - Lou Whitaker (2013)
2B - Roberto Alomar (2018)
2B - Ryne Sandberg (2010)

SS - Alan Trammell (2013)
SS - Cal Ripken (2005)
SS - Ozzie Smith (2002)
SS - Robin Yount (2000)

3B - George Brett (1999)
3B - Mike Schmidt (1995)
3B - Paul Molitor (2006)
3B - Wade Boggs (2005)

C - Carlton Fisk (2000)
C - Gary Carter (1998)
C - Ted Simmons (2004)

LF - Barry Bonds (2011)
LF - Jim Rice (1995)
LF - Pete Rose (1996)
LF - Rickey Henderson (2006)
LF - Tim Raines (2010)

CF - Al Oliver (1998)
CF - Andrew Dawson (2001)
CF - Brett Butler (2012)
CF - Dale Murphy (2008)
CF - Ken Griffey Jr. (2018)
CF - Kirby Puckett (2008)

RF - Dave Parker (2003)
RF - Dave Winfield (2001)
RF - Joe Carter (2011)
RF – Juan Gonzalez (2019)
RF - Ruben Sierra (2017)
RF - Tony Gwynn (2007)

SP - David Cone (2012)
SP - Don Sutton (1996)
SP - Dwight Gooden (2016)
SP - Greg Maddux (2015)
SP - Jack McDowell (2015)
SP - Jack Morris (2009)
SP - Jim Kaat (2003)
SP - Nolan Ryan (1999)
SP - Phil Niekro (1997)
SP - Roger Clemens (2007)

RP - Dennis Eckersley (2004)
RP - Lee Smith (2009)
RP - Rich Gossage (2014)

He's gotten 19 of 50 right so far. About 12 others aren't eligible yet. And 19 others are eligible but haven't been voted in yet. Of those, possibly Trammell, Whitaker, Rice, Dawson and Morris have realistic chances.

Players James didn't put on his list who were elected by the BBWAA:
1B - Tony Perez
RP - Bruce Sutter

Other players below that he didn't mention who already have legitimate shots. The predictions were 14 years ago, and some of these players hadn't even started their careers yet. Boy, a lot can change in 14 years!

1B - Mark McGwire
1B - Albert Pujols
1B - Jim Thome
1B - Rafael Palmeiro
2B - Craig Biggio
2B - Jeff Kent
SS - Derek Jeter
SS - Alex Rodriguez
3B - Chipper Jones
C - Mike Piazza
C - Ivan Rodriguez
RF - Sammy Sosa
RF - Manny Ramirez
RF - Ichiro Suzuki
RF - Vladimir Guerrero
SP - Randy Johnson
SP - Tom Glavine
SP - Pedro Martinez
RP - Trevor Hoffman
RP - Mariano Rivera

Considering when these picks were made, I'm surprised he didn't have Will Clark and Jose Canseco on his list. Those would have been tempting to make also.

Also notable is that James didn't think Blyleven would get voted in.

It looks like James may end up getting about 28 of his 50 picks right, and he missed 2 others. That's not too good of a percentage. Are Hall of Fame careers that hard to predict?

If we were to project what currently unelected players would be elected by the BBWAA in the next 25 years starting with 2009, who would we predict? Do you think you could do better than James' 55% or so success rate?

[Grandstander]

How are you calculating the failure rate? For example, Don Mattingly is projected as being voted in in 2014, an indication that James felt the writers would overlook him but the Vets committee would induct him. Is that among his failures?


Going by positions, James named six firstbasemen, the predicted year has yet to arrive for four, of the remaining two, one is in. 50%

Three secondbasemen were named and the year has yet to arrive for two of them. The other is in. 100 %

Four shortstops..one the year hasn't arrived, the other three are in. 100 %

Four thirdbasemen...all are in. 100 %

Five leftfielders....two have not reached their predicted year, among the remaining three, one is banned and thus doesn't count. One played longer than expected (Rickey) but will certainly be voted in when elligible, so he really only missed on Rice. 50 %

Six centerfielders...two have yet to reach predicted year...one out of four of the remaining is in. 25 % (Why is Al Oliver listed as a centerfielder?)

Rightfielder...three of six yet to reach predicted year....two of three eligibles are in...66 %

Ten starrting pitchers, four yet to reach predicted year, of remaining six, three are in. 50 %

Three relief pitchers, one yet to reach predicted year, other two are in. 100 %.


So, when excluding those who have yet to miss the predicted year, and Rose who is banned, James is actually 20 for 30, 66 %.

[jtur88]

By my count, I can only find 8 players that he predicted would have been inducted by now, who are now eli8gible, who have not been inducted. Garvey, Simmons, Rice,, Oliver, Dawson, Murphy, Parker, Kaat. And two that were elected that he did not anticipate. Which seems pretty good, to me.

[bigheadache]

There are so many players that looked like sure fire HOFers 5 years into their career that for whatever reason, it didn't happen. It makes it hard to predict 20 years into the future.

[Grandstander]

Originally Posted by bigheadache

There are so many players that looked like sure fire HOFers 5 years into their career that for whatever reason, it didn't happen. It makes it hard to predict 20 years into the future.

I find it interesting to look back at the can't miss players who missed. Feel free to add to this list of guys who before they turned 30, were certain HoFers.

Dwight Gooden
Darryl Strawberry
Will Clark
Don Mattingly
Dave Parker
Brett Saberhagen
Jason Giambi
Juan Gonzales
Dick Allen
Steve Garvey
Chuck Knoblauch
Dale Murphy
Vida Blue

[Triad]

Originally Posted by Grandstander

How are you calculating the failure rate? For example, Don Mattingly is projected as being voted in in 2014, an indication that James felt the writers would overlook him but the Vets committee would induct him. Is that among his failures?

So, when excluding those who have yet to miss the predicted year, and Rose who is banned, James is actually 20 for 30, 66 %.

I'll try to break my analysis down. Note that these are players that James predicted the BBWAA would elect.

Elected as predicted: 19
Elected but not predicted: -2
Eligible but not elected yet, and having realistic chances:
Trammell, Whitaker, Rice, Dawson and Morris. I'd imagine among those, possibly two or three of them will be voted in by the BBWAA eventually.

Not eligible but having realistic chances:
Thomas, Bagwell, Bonds, Henderson, Griffey, Maddux, Clemens.
Seven or eight of them should make it, barring scandal boycotting.

So we'd say that James may end up getting about 28-30 right, but also getting two others wrong that he missed (Perez, Sutter).

Also, James was already aware of Rose's situation at that point, but still predicted he'd be voted in by the BBWAA.

Even though they haven't reached their predicted year, I don't think any of the rest have very realistic shots by the BBWAA. It's possible that one or two could get in, but I'm not seeing it. Which other players do you think could get the BBWAA's vote?

Originally Posted by Grandstander

(Why is Al Oliver listed as a centerfielder?)

It's just by default. He was a centerfielder in his prime, 1971-76 and '79, so he ended up playing in center in more of his best years than any other position. He switched to LF and 1B later in his career.

[jtur88]

Originally Posted by Triad

[

Even though they haven't reached their predicted year, I don't think any of the rest have very realistic shots by the BBWAA. It's possible that one or two could get in, but I'm not seeing it. ]

You just did the same thing James did---you guessed who would get in. You can't judge James' guesses by how close they come to your own.

I would challenge any of you to guess which players will be inducted by the year 2022 (14 years in advance), and hit with an accuracy of only 8 that do not make it, and only 2 that made it who were not on your list.

[Grandstander]

Try this. Below is a list of MLB players who have achieved a measure of stardom and all are age 30 or younger. Predict which ones will wind up in the Hall and which will fail.

Jimmy Rollins
Adam Dunn
Dan Uggla
Ryan Howard
Kevin Youkillis
Joe Mauer
Mark Teixeira
Albert Pujols
Hanley Ramirez
Jose Reyes
Miguel Cabera
David Wright
Josh Beckett
Johan Santana
Tim Lincecum
CC Sabathia
Brandon Webb
Jake Peavy

From that group, the only two I would back with money would be Pujols and Santana.

[Zen653]

I'm quite confident about Mauer. At just 25 years of age, he's already been in the major leagues for five years, as a catcher no less, with a career .317 AVG, .399 OBA, 2 All-Star appearances, a Gold Glove and a pair of Silver Sluggers. If he continues at the same pace for another five years, then remains above average for a few years after that, I think he'll be first ballot material. Barring injury, I see no reason why he should regress after being consistently strong throughout his first five years.

I agree on Pujols and Santana. They'll be shoo-ins. The rest of the under-30 crowd is too difficult to predict. I think Rollins, Ramirez and Cabrera all might have an outside to decent chance. I doubt the other guys on the list will sustain their success for much longer.

[JoeSeadog]

I don't see how Johan Santana is a lock. He has 109 wins and will turn 30 before this season. If he has 7 more good years and wins 20 a couple times (he's only done it once so far) that leaves him with around 230 wins. He's not exactly Sandy Koufax even if he has 2 Cy's so far. He's 1-3 in the post season.

If Blyleven and Jack Morris aren't in with their careers, Santana NEEDS to be Sandy Koufax to get in. Frank Viola had 117 wins, a Cy and a WS MVP at Santana's age. Mussina had about as many wins at that age as well. They aren't in yet

One pitch and a grab to an elbow or shoulder and P O O F ! ! career is done.
No pitcher is a lock until he finishes and likely needs 300 wins as a starter or has an illustrative post season career.

Pujols should be a lock, but what bothers me is that he was on the steroid list that was leaked on the morning of the big announcement, as was Ortiz and Nomar.(tell-tale foot problems linked to steroid use ala McGwire and Giambi) I think we all know it was no coincidence that George Mitchell, part owner of the Bosox and the detective on the roid witch-hunt, protected "his own", NO Sox appeared on the list. A national sports commentator that afternoon at the opening of their show bemoaned Pujols being on the list and his side kick (in another city) corrected him saying that he wasn't. This commentator said "he was on mine this morning, the one sent to me", and from that point it was all hush-hush.

Now, I do not think in any way that Pujols is guilty, I also I didn't think that Roger was either.(still not 100% convinced) But a pretty astute baseball friend of mine who is a real stat head notes that since the steroid hunt Albert's home runs went from 41 and 49 the 2 years before to 32 and 37 the 2 years after. I say look at his BA and it's apparent that he is a wonderfully gifted hitter. Unless he is outed by someone pretty credible, I think we have to say Pujols is legit. I can't think of a hitter I enjoy watching more, so I hope this was all unfounded rumour

For the Hall of Fame, NO RELIEVER should have ever been in until Lee Smith is elected. How did Bruce Sutter get in with a 12 year career that he stunk in the last 3 years. Lee Arthur had 291 saves from age 30-37, 9 less that Sutter had for his whole career. Lee had 40+ 4 times, Sutter once. THERE is your travesty.

[Zen653]

I think we all know it was no coincidence that George Mitchell, part owner of the Bosox and the detective on the roid witch-hunt, protected "his own", NO Sox appeared on the list.

I know Yankees fans like to perpetuate this myth, however, it's untrue. The following Red Sox players were named in the 2007 Mitchell Report:

1. Eric Gagne, 2007
2. Brendan Donnelly, 2007
3. Mike Stanton, 1995-1996, 2005
4. Mike Lansing, 2000-2001
5. Paxton Crawford, 2000-2001
6. Manny Alexander, 2000
7. Kent Mercer, 1999
8. Mo Vaughn, 1991-1998
9. Jose Canseco, 1995-1996
10. Roger Clemens, 1984-1996
11. Chris Donnels, 1995