Can Howard Top...Or Bottom...Armas?

Grandstander · August 29th, 2008, 08:37 AM

The other thread expressed interest in Ryan Howard, or others, breaking the single season strikeout mark. Since Howard already holds this mark, it does not seem that compelling a challenge. However, Howard does have a decent shot at second place for another mark, the lowest OPS posted by a homerun champion since the deadball era.

Howard is on a pace to hit .228-.320-.483 with 44 homeruns. .804 OPS

There is a small controversy involved...do we count records from the strike shortened 1981 season? If so, then the second lowest OPS ever produced by a homerun champion was Tony Armas in '81, .774 on a batting line of .261-.294-.480. 22 homeruns. If we throw that out due to the strike, then second place is still held by Armas, but Howard is on a pace to do worse. In 1984 Armas led the AL with 44 homeruns with a batting line of .268-.300-.531, an .831 OPS.

However, Howard would need to stage a serious slump to challenge the champion here, that's Dave Kingman who electrified MLB in 1982 by leading the NL in homeruns with 37 while compliling a .204-.285-.432 batting line, an OPS of .717. Kingman's .204 average is also the lowest batting average ever recorded by a homerun champ and since Howard is at .228, we can't say that this mark is out of reach.

jtur88 · August 29th, 2008, 11:33 PM

I'll move the pace over here, since the other thread is drifting away.

Currently on a pace to Strike Out: (record is 199)
Howard 209
Reynolds 201
Cust 197

I think Cust's playing time is starting to recede, he doesn't have many PA.s In fact, he has so few, his percentage of PA's in which he has put the ball in play is .474. I wonder what the record is for non-pitchers? In a year without any serious competiton from Howard and Reynolds, Cust, if injured today, could lead the league in Ks without enough PAs to qualify for the batting title.

Kingman was .639 PBIP, and Armas .709. Armas was helped by his batting eye, with a K/BB ratio of 6:1.

Grandstander · August 30th, 2008, 05:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtur88

I'll move the pace over here, since the other thread is drifting away.

Currently on a pace to Strike Out: (record is 199)
Howard 209
Reynolds 201
Cust 197

I think Cust's playing time is starting to recede, he doesn't have many PA.s In fact, he has so few, his percentage of PA's in which he has put the ball in play is .474. I wonder what the record is for non-pitchers? In a year without any serious competiton from Howard and Reynolds, Cust, if injured today, could lead the league in Ks without enough PAs to qualify for the batting title.

Kingman was .639 PBIP, and Armas .709. Armas was helped by his batting eye, with a K/BB ratio of 6:1.

In '07, Cust set the all time three true outcomes record, I had a thread tracking it when it happened. He had 501 plate appearances, walked 105 times, struck out 164 times and was hit by one pitch, and put the ball in play 231 times or 46 % of the time.

jtur88 · September 21st, 2008, 06:12 AM

Going into Sunday, with a week to go, Reynolds has taken the lead. Projections:
Reynolds - 204
Howard - 202
Cust - 196.

Howard is likely to preserve every chance, since the Phillies are in the pennant race, and Howard will get every opportunity to strike out in crucial games. Howard still strikes fear in the hearts of opponenents, even though his K/HR ratio is 5:1.
Howard could still lose a critical K opportunity this week by being intentionally walked. He has 16 IBBs this year, which has cost him 4.6 strikeouts.
If Howard played for LaRussa, who would move him up in the batting order, he would have gained about 5 Ks (and one HR), tying his own record already, only one short of the coveted 200.

Grandstander · September 21st, 2008, 10:00 AM

Regardless of which player wins the K Crown this year and winds up with the reocrd, I think that we have to acknowledge Reynolds as the true champ here. At the moment he is tied with Howard at 194 strikeouts, but he has done this while playing in ten fewer games and compiling 89 fewer plate appearances. Reynolds whiffs once in every 2.9 plate appearances while Howard fans the air in 3.4. If we gave Reynolds the same number of plate appearances as Howard, he would have an astonishing 229 strikeouts already. Cust would also be leaving Howard in the dust. He has averaged a whiff every 3.0 plate appearances and that would be 221 k's given the same playing time as Big Ryan.

As a side note, Cust will not be shattering his own record for failure to put the ball in play. Last season he gave the defense no reason to be on the field in 54 % of his plate appearances, but this season they have been able to ignore him only 52 % of the time.

jtur88 · September 25th, 2008, 08:56 PM

Mark Reynolds goes down swinging against Joel Piniero in second, sets new K mark with 200. With three games to go, Reynolds has 201, Howard still at 196.

jtur88 · September 27th, 2008, 07:22 AM

Cust needs five strikeouts in the last two games to reach the magic achievement of three players all topping an all=time record in a single season. Cust fanned 3 times last might, and if he can keep up that pace, he will do it. Howard fanned twice, and is now just two short of topping his own record. Is should be easy for Howard to K twice in two remaining games. Reynolds, already over the record, is living with the glory, and didnt strike out at all in three tries last night.
Saturday update:

Howard and Cust K once each. Howard ties his own record, with a game to go, which he might not play, as Phils have just clinched the division. Cust struck out once, but got cheated. He was in the on deck circle when Ichiro GIDP to end the game. Cust now needs a difficult four on Sunday to make 200.

jtur88 · September 29th, 2008, 09:35 AM

Babe Ruth did it four times, and now Jack Cust has done it once. Has anybody else ever lead the league in both Walks and Strikeouts?

Grandstander · September 29th, 2008, 03:40 PM

jtur:

Quote:

Cust struck out once, but got cheated. He was in the on deck circle when Ichiro GIDP to end the game. Cust now needs a difficult four on Sunday to make 200.

Was Cust in the on deck circle for the Mariners, or was Ichiro batting for the A's?

jtur88 · September 29th, 2008, 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grandstander

jtur:

Was Cust in the on deck circle for the Mariners, or was Ichiro batting for the A's?

Wrong Suzuki. It was Kurt.

August 29th, 2008, 08:37 AM	#1 (permalink)
Grandstander Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Parts Unknown Northern California Posts: 6,611	Can Howard Top...Or Bottom...Armas? The other thread expressed interest in Ryan Howard, or others, breaking the single season strikeout mark. Since Howard already holds this mark, it does not seem that compelling a challenge. However, Howard does have a decent shot at second place for another mark, the lowest OPS posted by a homerun champion since the deadball era. Howard is on a pace to hit .228-.320-.483 with 44 homeruns. .804 OPS There is a small controversy involved...do we count records from the strike shortened 1981 season? If so, then the second lowest OPS ever produced by a homerun champion was Tony Armas in '81, .774 on a batting line of .261-.294-.480. 22 homeruns. If we throw that out due to the strike, then second place is still held by Armas, but Howard is on a pace to do worse. In 1984 Armas led the AL with 44 homeruns with a batting line of .268-.300-.531, an .831 OPS. However, Howard would need to stage a serious slump to challenge the champion here, that's Dave Kingman who electrified MLB in 1982 by leading the NL in homeruns with 37 while compliling a .204-.285-.432 batting line, an OPS of .717. Kingman's .204 average is also the lowest batting average ever recorded by a homerun champ and since Howard is at .228, we can't say that this mark is out of reach.

August 29th, 2008, 11:33 PM	#2 (permalink)
jtur88 Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: South Texas Posts: 7,857	I'll move the pace over here, since the other thread is drifting away. Currently on a pace to Strike Out: (record is 199) Howard 209 Reynolds 201 Cust 197 I think Cust's playing time is starting to recede, he doesn't have many PA.s In fact, he has so few, his percentage of PA's in which he has put the ball in play is .474. I wonder what the record is for non-pitchers? In a year without any serious competiton from Howard and Reynolds, Cust, if injured today, could lead the league in Ks without enough PAs to qualify for the batting title. Kingman was .639 PBIP, and Armas .709. Armas was helped by his batting eye, with a K/BB ratio of 6:1. __________________ ------------------ When people ask what I hope to see before I die, I answer that I've already seen too much. Last edited by jtur88; August 29th, 2008 at 11:44 PM.

September 21st, 2008, 06:12 AM	#4 (permalink)
jtur88 Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: South Texas Posts: 7,857	Going into Sunday, with a week to go, Reynolds has taken the lead. Projections: Reynolds - 204 Howard - 202 Cust - 196. Howard is likely to preserve every chance, since the Phillies are in the pennant race, and Howard will get every opportunity to strike out in crucial games. Howard still strikes fear in the hearts of opponenents, even though his K/HR ratio is 5:1. Howard could still lose a critical K opportunity this week by being intentionally walked. He has 16 IBBs this year, which has cost him 4.6 strikeouts. If Howard played for LaRussa, who would move him up in the batting order, he would have gained about 5 Ks (and one HR), tying his own record already, only one short of the coveted 200. __________________ ------------------ When people ask what I hope to see before I die, I answer that I've already seen too much. Last edited by jtur88; September 21st, 2008 at 06:23 AM.

September 25th, 2008, 08:56 PM	#6 (permalink)
jtur88 Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: South Texas Posts: 7,857	Mark Reynolds goes down swinging against Joel Piniero in second, sets new K mark with 200. With three games to go, Reynolds has 201, Howard still at 196. __________________ ------------------ When people ask what I hope to see before I die, I answer that I've already seen too much.

September 27th, 2008, 07:22 AM	#7 (permalink)
jtur88 Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: South Texas Posts: 7,857	Cust needs five strikeouts in the last two games to reach the magic achievement of three players all topping an all=time record in a single season. Cust fanned 3 times last might, and if he can keep up that pace, he will do it. Howard fanned twice, and is now just two short of topping his own record. Is should be easy for Howard to K twice in two remaining games. Reynolds, already over the record, is living with the glory, and didnt strike out at all in three tries last night. Saturday update: Howard and Cust K once each. Howard ties his own record, with a game to go, which he might not play, as Phils have just clinched the division. Cust struck out once, but got cheated. He was in the on deck circle when Ichiro GIDP to end the game. Cust now needs a difficult four on Sunday to make 200. __________________ ------------------ When people ask what I hope to see before I die, I answer that I've already seen too much. Last edited by jtur88; September 27th, 2008 at 03:46 PM.

September 21st, 2008, 10:00 AM	#5 (permalink)
Grandstander Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Parts Unknown Northern California Posts: 6,611	Regardless of which player wins the K Crown this year and winds up with the reocrd, I think that we have to acknowledge Reynolds as the true champ here. At the moment he is tied with Howard at 194 strikeouts, but he has done this while playing in ten fewer games and compiling 89 fewer plate appearances. Reynolds whiffs once in every 2.9 plate appearances while Howard fans the air in 3.4. If we gave Reynolds the same number of plate appearances as Howard, he would have an astonishing 229 strikeouts already. Cust would also be leaving Howard in the dust. He has averaged a whiff every 3.0 plate appearances and that would be 221 k's given the same playing time as Big Ryan. As a side note, Cust will not be shattering his own record for failure to put the ball in play. Last season he gave the defense no reason to be on the field in 54 % of his plate appearances, but this season they have been able to ignore him only 52 % of the time.

September 29th, 2008, 09:35 AM	#8 (permalink)
jtur88 Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: South Texas Posts: 7,857	Babe Ruth did it four times, and now Jack Cust has done it once. Has anybody else ever lead the league in both Walks and Strikeouts? __________________ ------------------ When people ask what I hope to see before I die, I answer that I've already seen too much.