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#31 (permalink) | |
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Hall of Famer
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To answer your earlier question, of course, there are very very many positions that I take for which I have less than absolute certainty of my correctness. Not because I "think I am wrong", but because I suspect that, given new data, I might discover that I am. But I say them anyway, because I think they represent points that could lead to an understanding of the issues. But I have taken the trouble to think about my position and that of others, and I offer arguments in support of what I think might be reasonable. When other posters counter my arguments, and pay attention to them, and sometimes adjust my own position. I look forward to responses to my posts that often lead me to adjust my position. It is discouraging to see a repsonse that is nothing more than a one-liner accusing me of intellectual dishonesty, merely for being here and offering a point of view that challenges an absolutist assertion. It is even more discouraging that you cannot even imagine being wrong, and raise points only where you have absolute certainty that you are not wrong. In fact, it seems to astonish you that any person could offer an opinion with less than absolute certainty that it is correct. Which is frightening.
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------------------ When people ask what I hope to see before I die, I answer that I've already seen too much. Last edited by jtur88; August 23rd, 2008 at 02:52 PM. |
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#32 (permalink) | |
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jtur:
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Anyway, it's more intellectual dishonesty from you and you really ought to be ashamed. |
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#33 (permalink) | |
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nan:
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The causes were Roger Maris and expansion. When Maris blasted his 61 homeruns and Mantle was on a pace to hit as many or more until a late season injury confined him to 54, and in that same year Norm Cash went crazy with an incredible year at the plate, and Killibrew and Colavito also topped 40 homeruns, overreaction followed. Commissioner Ford Frick and the owners, not the sorts to sit around doing nothing when the situation called for hysteria, quickly identified the problem... baseball was out of whack and the cause was expansion. All that added lesser talent had generated conditions where someone who had no right to break the immortal Babe's record, had done so anyway. In their minds, clearly Maris would have done nothing of the sort had it not been for his ability to feast on watered down pitching. They spent a year arguing about it among themselves, and they did not have the patience to wait and see if things balanced out on their own as the expansion teams developed. In 1963 they acted, they enlarged the strikezone quite a bit with the deliberate, and successful intent, of reducing offense. At the same time, two new stadiums on the west coast were opening and each would prove to be parks which helped pitchers tremendously. The result of all this tinkering was of course the big hitting freeze of '63 through '68. After five years of pitching domination, they finally realized that they had badly overreacted to the Maris business and they took steps to restore traditional offensive levels, they lowered the mound and shrunk the strikezone. The result was improved offense, more or less at levels corresponding to earlier norms. So, those particular ups and downs were the product of deliberate intervention to alter conditions, and as such, are not reflective of any revealing rise or fall in talent. You attribute it to "pitchers simply blowing hitters away" and I suppose this represents your notion of how the old timers "knew how to pitch." They of course did not know anything special about pitching, they blew hitters away because they were getting strikes called at the top of the shoulders and the bottom of the knees. Notice how the moment this was taken away from them in 1969, all these guys suddenly forgot how to pitch so well. Strange coincidence, huh? So, that, along with other chunks of reasoning, is why I cannot take these long, ponderous history lessons from you in any sort of serious manner. You rely on this sort of tainted information and later insist you made some hot, unassailable point and demand to know why I didn't accept it as proof. And that is annoying. I think that you should try and be more careful with these sorts of sermons. An argument such as "the old timers knew how to pitch and modern ones do not" is just silly. You may as well be arguing that no one knew how to hit homeruns until the smart homerun hitters of the 1920's came along. Or that between 1930 and 1960, players forgot how to steal bases. |
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#34 (permalink) |
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That last post of yours is a pip, dragging in Roger Maris and expansion as causes for the batting slump of the 1960a, a post that reveals no grasp of hitting realities between the end of WW II and the adoption of the DH more than a generation later.
Your tawdry, vapid, personal attacks serve only to call attention to yourself. Your last diatribe, windy and distended, is simply GS in the echo chamber, listening to himself, and requiring no further response at all. |
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#36 (permalink) |
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If we return to the thread and its key topic, the focus is the high batting strikeout rates in to day’s game as contrasted with seasons past. Three players are presumably closing in on the single season K record for batters, hardly an accomplishment one wants to be the most pronounced accomplishment in a MLB hitting resume.
Relative to the topic, in historical context, I pointed out in some detail a decline in batting performance that climaxed in the awful 1968 season, when the entire AL sported a BA of .230, while the NL came in at .243. This evoked an animated response from GS, who alleged that I had arrived at convenient explanations without devoting enough attention to context and the history of the times. GS then proceeded to fix the slump first on two major factors, Roger Maris 1961 record-breaking, asterisk winning 61 HR season over an extebnded schedule; and expansion. In addition to Maris, GS cited the bursts of power by Harmon Killebrew and Rocky Colavito, two Maris contemporaries, somehow connecting all the dots as an aggravated and intolerable assault on Babe Ruth’s hallowed HR record. Roger Maris OK, let’s look at Roger Maris, his 1961 season and the NY climate in which he played. First, I’d suggest we look at Maris alongside teammate Mickey Mantle. In doing this, let’s also bring in Killebrew and Colavito in the same context. Season…………….Player…………..HR 1956………………Maris………….…n/a 1956………………Mantle…………...52 1958………………Maris…………….14 1958………………Mantle…………...42 1958………………Killebrew………..n/a 1958………………Colavito…………41 1959………………Maris…………….16 1959………………Mantle……………31 1959………………Killebrew………..42 1959………………Colavito…………42 1960……………….Maris……………39 1960……………….Mantle…………..40 1960……………….Killebrew……….31 1960……………….Colavito…………35 1961……………….Maris…………….61 1961……………….Mantle……………54 1961……………….Killebrew………..46 1961……………….Colavito…………45 Some observations are reasonable and must be addressed to put this whole “Maris” factor in context:
-more right-handed pitchers to face, thus the like-handed batter challenge; -the prevailing ballpark architecture that had dimensions favoring lefty hitters 3. Bottom line is that, when the dust had settled at the end of 1961, the WRONG Yankee had re-written the record book. Had Mantle hit 61 or more, the brouhaha caused by the shock of Roger Maris would have been all but eliminated. The Freeze of 1963-1968; Expansion In the 1901-present history of MLB the aggregate BA has gravitated to a level +/- .260. Anything +/-5% of that norm like, .273 recaptures the pre-WW II years like 1941 with Williams’ .406 and DiMaggio’s 56 game hit streak making headlines. Anything on that – range, @ .247 or so is regarded as a lighter hitting climate. A decade like the 1920s with league Bas @ .287 is a period of outlying performance, with a an NL 1930 [.303] being an outright anomaly. So, periods with averages @ .253 - .267 ranges are not particularly astounding and the game batting dynamics are, overall, close to the norm. So let’s look at a few years that may reasonably lead us into the 1960s. By 1949, WW II is over, with many careers ending as a result of the War, and a general turnover to “new blood” taking to the diamond. If we take 1959 as a decade marker apart from that 1949 checkpoint, and with no expansion taking place [but Korea taking a very few stars], we can segue into and through the 1960s. Season…………….AL BA………………….NL BA 1949………………. .263…………………… .262 1959………………. .253……………………. .260 1960………………. .255……………………. .255 1961………………. .256 [AL now 10 teams]. .262 1962………………. .255……………………. .261 [NL now 10 teams] NOTE: In actual year OF expansion[s], AL and NL average were UP 1963……………….. .247…………………… .261 1964……………….. .247……………………. .254 1965……………….. .242……………………. .249 1966……………….. .240……………………. .256 1967……………….. .236……………………. .249 1968……………….. .230……………………. .243 In point of fact, the “freeze” was not uniform to both leagues, nor was it a tidy linear decline for the NL at all. In three of the six seasons, the NL actually hovered to normal averages very close to those that prevailed, post WW II in the earlier-mid 1950s. The marked decline was peculiar to the AL, and suggests that franchise management of farm systems may have had as much to do with talent pool dilution as expansion did. One might well expect dilution to result from expansion, but only when two factors bring it about: -expansion exceeds capacity to absorb it; -expansion is abrupt with insufficient planning Expansion & Population Many factors enter into expansion planning, including geography, transportation infrastructure and population clusters, generally measured by the Government is terms of Statistical Metropolitan Areas [SMSA]. However, basic to expansion is the population available to support the expansion. U.S. Population………….Year………..MLB Franchises………POP/Franchise [millions] [millions] 123.2…………………….1930………………..16………………...7.7 132.2……………………..1940……………….16…………………8.3 150.5……………………..1950………………..16…………………9.4 If demographers were competent enough to project the 18.5% population growth between 1950 and 1960, to 179.3 million, they might have encouraged MLB and prospective franchise owners that expansion held promise for sound returns. If they arrived at 8.0m POP per franchise, their math might have gone something like this: 179.3 million people @ 8.0 POP/Franchise = 22.4 franchises supportable by 1960 projected population. That would make expansion to 20 teams a conservative move, all other dynamics being in place. However, as I mentioned above, farm system structure must be in place, so a purely “inside the organization” factor must be addressed, one over which demographers have no control at all. If performance statistics are notably skewed by expansion; and, if one League is notably less effected, then the problem lies with franchise farm management, not available talent pools. Some franchise owners heard the call of the cash register before they heeded the call to player development. The impact was not immediate, but delayed. It was also more League specific in both nature, slope and depth of decline. Tinkering with strike zones and mound elevations [1969]to raise offense levels apparently worked by 1970 when the AL rose to .250 and the NL climbed to .258. Maris, Killebrew, Colavito and company had little or nothing to do with batting declines than began to be noted, for real, three full years after the “insult” to the record book. GS then turns to the strike zone, which he describes as “TOP of the shoulder [caps mine] to BOTTOM of knees” [caps also mine]. In reality, here’s: Rule 2.00 - The Strike Zone “The Strike Zone is defined as that area over home plate the upper limit of which is a horizontal line at the midpoint between the top of the shoulders and the top of the uniform pants, and the lower level is a line at the hollow beneath the kneecap. The Strike Zone shall be determined from the batter's stance as the batter is prepared to swing at a pitched ball]. “ Please NOTE: The officials rules clearly identify a horizontal MIDPOINT between the top of the shoulders and the top of the uniform pants. To any competent reader, that is a far cry from the upper part of the shoulders; and in the 1920s and 1930s, the midpoint was taken to be the batter’s armpit. Eventually, as uniform lettering became more pronounced, “the letters” became the upper level horizontal line of the strike zone. The lower limit has roughly been interpreted in a departure from the strictest interpretation of the rule, as written, such that, in practice, a strike is “at the knees.” Since the 17” width of home plate has not been modified, the width of the strike zone [where the ball crosses the front of the plate, relative to the width of the plate, varies ONLY with the generosity or austerity of the umpire on “close ones,” on the line or at the corners.. GS, then alluding to old-timers whom I mentioned as “knowing how to pitch” not looking so hot when, in 1969 their strike zone was shrunk. His punch line” “Stange coincidence – huh?” I’d say, not only “strange” but miraculous, since many of the guys I spoke of were dead by 1969. The rest of the post, of guys not being smart enough to hits HRs between 1911 and Babe Ruth, or guys forgetting how to steal bases between 1930 and 1969, is a bit too “Alice through the Looking Glass” for me. This post is written mostly because I find the topic interesting and because there may be others, as interested, who may want to pick up the debate, whether in agreement or disagreement with my own points. It is decidedly NOT intended to engage in childishness with a poster more interested in garthering attention to himself than participating in a discussion. So be it. Last edited by nanwynn; August 25th, 2008 at 09:51 PM. |
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#37 (permalink) | |
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nan:
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See nan, you are all puffy and ponderous and reactionary...and you aren't even reacting to what was actually argued. Again, you make it very difficult to take your lengthy presentations seriously when you evidence such sloppy habits with regard to comprehending that which was presented. Because you screwed up in understanding what was said to you, and there isn't any excuse for it, then you render all that you write suspect. Proving that something I wrote is incorrect first requires you to actually grasp what I wrote and then argue against that. Arguing against your own misinterpretation or misrepresentation, well, that's an awfully big waste of time, isn't it? You are driven by some hyper sensitivity demon which requires you to try and answer every single tiny point made by the opposition, and this seems even more ridiculous when people notice that you missed out on the big picture entirely. I know that you will not listen to me nor will you accept any criticism from me, nor will you ever even consider for a moment that the problems you seem to have with me are entirely of your own making. But you should....otherwise you remain a time wasting, boring poster. |
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#38 (permalink) | |||||
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Join Date: May 2008
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However, your typical, and unknowing "observation" about me, does touch on something about which I care a great deal. That is, good company. Whether it's in personal social settings, small or large, I love being in with good people who care about each other, are interested in any wide, weird or fanciful topics of discussion, who know how to listen [as well as converse] and who possess enough civility and maturity for me to seek their company. I can then be genuinely flattered just realizing the appreciation is mutually shared. I'm not talking "deep" and pensive people here, either. We can talk baseball, math, Lost or rehashed episodes of Seinfeld, or current events; and there are some elevated moments of disagreement. Fits of giggles are broadly welcome. You just don't come away from those exchanges feeling as if you've been bitten by fleas and mites in a sandbox. Quote:
I always referred to this as "taking your bat and ball and going home." [And you know this. I called that pattern on you, even before you did it, too many times to remember]. [And, only when your personal sliming of those disagreeing with you got too putrid to bear]. Quote:
It's a little like Mike Mazurki's scene in "Murder, My Sweet," when Moose Malloy shows his single social bit of politeness, when he says to the B-girl, "So far you rate me polite, right?" Well, unlike Moose Malloy. I choose to be polite without wrecking the joint and dismembering the owner. I'll leave the nasty and childish tantrums to you, if it helps get the bile out of your system. Anyone else want to discuss the topic? I'm done with any and all personal tangents and off-topic diatribes wrought by petulant self-centered brats of any age. [Yes, Virginia, there are 50 year old + brats among us]. Last edited by nanwynn; August 25th, 2008 at 07:21 PM. |
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#39 (permalink) | |
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#40 (permalink) |
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Well, nan, exacly as I indicated, you were seized by some need to defend every single tiny thing, and you also showed yourself to be rather immature with the name calling.
Geez, aren't you the oldest guy in all FanHome? You post on a high school level of emotional hysteria. No one is reading these lengthy posts of yours, not me, not anyone. Are you not aware of this? |
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#41 (permalink) | |
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#42 (permalink) | |
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Read it. Read what you wrote. What in the name of all that's good and holy [or delightfully naughty] does my AGE have to do with anything? Are you such a craven cretin that you have humanity neatly divvied up like sorting boxes in the post office? Are you that regressed a twit as to have an imaginary icon for each age class you encounter? Please, keep writing ever longer and increasingly angry and rambling irrationalities. You are becoming onionesque, with each layer peeled away revealing the tawdry spirit of a Dorian Gray wannabe. Age is a number. |
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#44 (permalink) |
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Baseball anyone? I believe the strikeout record [by batters] being threatened by 3 at one time was the topic at hand [once upon a time].
I'm hoping somebody picks it up. It could be interesting in an historic sense, if it's allowed to go on without childish graffiti. |
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#45 (permalink) | ||||||
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Location: Oregon
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On the original question, I think negative records such as batter strikeouts, pitcher walks, balks, wild pitches, caught stealing, etc., are much more apt to come in clumps than positive records are. To succeed in a positive record, you must strive and excel in a similar goal to all the other players. But to fail in a negative record, all it can require is to have a big contract or be on a team that can't unload you, and then simply fall apart. Quote:
Grandstander, I will grant you that today's overall competition in baseball is better than that of the early 1900s, but I think you're overstating the effect somewhat. An indication of competition level can be garnered from the variance in team winning percentages as well as in individual player performances. There were greater extremes relative to the norm back then, however not quite to the extent your hypothesis would suggest. Baseball is going to be less affected by the rising athletic skills anyway. Track stars end up on the gridiron. Pitching isn't about being able to lift weights. Batting discipline and command of the hitting zone have little to do with strength and speed. Tell Greg Maddux he's athletic, and you'll get a big laugh. Even Roger Clemens isn't buff. Pitching, of all positions, is not about athleticism. That's why there aren't many black pitchers. Speed and strength don't help at that position. Nor do they at catcher. Similar demographics. Quote:
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Today's batters have the same basic technological tools that today's pitchers and fielders do. Hitters have not gotten more at a disadvantage over the years. So it seems to balance out for the most part. If anything, it's tilted a little away from pitching. Hitting requires more today, true, but at the same time, hitters are also given more tools to utilize today. I wouldn't derive from such a phenomenon that today's hitters are much better than Cobb, Gehrig or Foxx. Quote:
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