2008 AL AllStar Voting

[bedir than average]

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The AL WPA Leaders are

C - Joe Mauer
1B - Kevin Youkillis
2B - Dustin Predroia
3B - Melvin Mora
SS - Michael Young (he is the ONLY SS with a positive number among qualifiers)
OF - Manny Rameriz, Josh Hamilton, Grady Sizemore
DH - Milton Bradley
SP - Cliff Lee
RP - George Sherrill


Considering the game is in the Bronx I would find it oddly satisfying if there were no Yanks in the starting lineup.

[bedir than average]

There is also an interesting thing likely to occur this year.

Ichiro is highly unlikely to be at the game. The Mariners attendence is falling. It has been 8 years since he played in Japan. The Mariners aren't on TV there as often, splitting time with the Yankees, the Red Sox and a handful of other teams. The Mariners just plain suck.

To top that off Ichiro's season has been a rather pedestrian 271/337/377 with 2 HR and 18 SB. That isn't going to drive any All Star votes around the nation.

Plus the Mariners have two fairly outstanding pitchers in Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez who are more likely to get their single player.

Are we about to see the end of the Ichiro! era or is he going to go on a burst of singles to "power" his way to the game again?

[Zen653]

To top that off Ichiro's season has been a rather pedestrian 271/337/377 with 2 HR and 18 SB. That isn't going to drive any All Star votes around the nation.

I see three factors in favor of Ichiro's return to the All-Star game:

1. The Japanese vote. Ichiro remains the most popular Japanese player in the U.S, and rabid Japanese fans will vote multiple times for him.

2. It's only May. Sure, June is right around the corner, but there are another 4 weeks before we know who will be voted in to the All-Star game. Ichiro's stat line could substantially improve by that time, in which case the fans would push his candidacy. Plus, if baserunning and defense mean anything to you, Ichiro is already a reasonable candidate (albeit not in my current top three.)

3. Ichiro is an established player. There's often a 1-3 year lagging period where a player who was previously worthy of All-Star selection continues to draw support because of his overall name recognition. The average fan hasn't heard of Josh Hamilton or Carlos Quentin. He'll select Ichiro, Manny and Guerrero like every other year.

That being said, the drop-off can't be too precipitous, or else a second-tier reputation player can bump off one of the superstars. We saw that last year when a hot-hitting Magglio Ordonez caught up to a struggling Manny Ramirez, supplanting him in the starting lineup. Somehow Ramirez got named anyway as a reserve even though he posted rather pedestrian numbers. (I wouldn't be surprised if Ramirez makes it that way again this year.)

Now I don't entirely blame the fans for initially voting on reputation. When voting begins less than a month into the season, there's really no other choice because you've only had one month worth of games. That's why I prefer to wait until the last week of All-Star balloting to submit my votes. I hold out until the last moment because the player who looks the most deserving at the end of April might not be the most deserving by the end of June.

As a Red Sox fan, I'd love to see as many Boston All-Stars as possible, especially with the game being held at Yankee Stadium this year. But I only use my personal allegiances as a tie-breaker. Ultimately, I want to assemble the most talented and deserving team.

Likely All-Stars for the Red Sox (75%+ probability) include Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz and Daisuke Matsuzaka. I see Youkilis starting at 1B, Pedroia starting at 2B, Ortiz starting at DH, and Matsuzaka being named as a reserve because of his sub-3 ERA and 8-0 start (even though he has pitched much worse than his stat line and would probably cost the American League the victory.) Possible All-Stars (50/50 probability) would be Manny Ramirez (if he gets voted in or maybe as a final outfield reserve), Mike Lowell and Jonathan Papelbon. And then there are three remote possibilities (less than 25% probability): Jason Varitek (as a reserve catcher), Hideki Okajima (great ERA, but he's allowed too many inherited runners to score), and Jon Lester (if he can tack on a few more wins and lower his ERA a little more, I could see Francona rewarding his own player with an All-Star appearance.)

Assuming a pitching staff of 14 pitchers, here's my current pecking order (subject to change):

1. Cliff Lee, Cleveland Indians (6-1, 1.37 ERA)
2. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston Red Sox (8-0, 2.40 ERA)
3. Joe Saunders, Los Angeles Angels (8-1, 2.31 ERA)
4. Ervin Santana, Los Angeles Angels (6-2, 3.24 ERA)
5. Sean Marcum, Toronto Blue Jays (4-3, 2.80 ERA)
6. Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals (5-2, 2.82 ERA)
7. Daniel Cabrera, Baltimore Orioles (5-1, 3.48 ERA)
8. Chien-Ming Wang, New York Yankees (6-2, 3.51 ERA)
9. Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays (5-5, 3.11 ERA)

10. Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins (0-0, 1.42 ERA, 13-13 SVO, 1+ K/1)
11. Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees (1-1, 0.47 ERA, 11-11 SVO)
12. Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals (0-0, 0.98 ERA, 11-11 SVO, 1+ K/1)
13. BJ Ryan, Toronto Blue Jays (1-0, 0.60 ERA, 10-10 SVO, 1.5+ K/1)
14. Jon Papelbon, Boston Red Sox (2-2, 2.35 ERA, 14-16 SVO, 1+ K/1, only 2 BB)

On the outside looking in (no particular order):

(15.) Francisco Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels
(16.) Troy Percival, Tampa Bay Rays
(17.) Scott Kazmir, Tampa Bay Rays
(18.) Dave Eveland, Oakland Athletics
(19.) Rich Harden, Oakland Athletics
(20.) Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox
(21.) Bobby Jenks, Chicago White Sox
(22.) Gavin Floyd, Chicago White Sox
(23.) Javier Vazquez, Chicago White Sox
(24.) John Danks, Chicago White Sox
(25.) Jason Shields, Tampa Bay Rays