Rickey Henderson's Low 2B Totals

Triad · 05-02-2008, 03:28 PM

Any theories on why Rickey Henderson's doubles were so low? Here's a comparison with a sampling of other fast runners of the last few decades, measuring number of career singles per double.
(active players still in their twenties not included)

8.4 - Otis Nixon
7.3 - Ichiro Suzuki
6.9 - Brett Butler
6.4 - Vince Coleman
6.2 - Willie Wilson
5.8 - Ron LeFlore
5.7 - Bert Campaneris
5.6 - Omar Moreno
5.4 - Rod Carew
5.4 - Luis Aparicio
5.3 - Dave Lopes
4.9 - Ozzie Smith
4.9 - Willie McGee
4.7 - Kenny Lofton
4.7 - Willie Davis
4.7 - Delino DeShields
4.6 - Lou Brock
4.5 - Derek Jeter
4.4 - Tim Raines
4.4 - Tony Gwynn
4.3 - Rickey Henderson
4.2 - Chuck Knoblauch
4.2 - Rafael Furcal
4.1 - Ryne Sandberg
4.1 - Jose Cruz
3.9 - Bobby Bonds
3.9 - Eric Young
3.9 - Paul Molitor
3.9 - Vada Pinson
3.8 - Roberto Alomar
3.8 - Joe Morgan
3.7 - Barry Larkin
3.7 - Eric Davis
3.7 - Amos Otis
3.7 - Willie Mays
3.7 - Johnny Damon
3.6 - Juan Samuel
3.4 - Devon White
3.4 - Andre Dawson
3.2 - Cesar Cedeno
3.2 - Vladimir Guerrero
3.1 - Craig Biggio
3.1 - Brady Anderson
3.0 - Carlos Beltran
2.6 - Bobby Abreu
2.6 - Alfonso Soriano
2.5 - Barry Bonds

Henderson was faster than most of the players on this list who hit doubles more frequently, and he had more pop in his bat than most of them. So why didn't he hit very many doubles?

Guys near the top of this list are typically slap hitters. Guys near the bottom of the list would be those who had a good speed-power combo, and hustled out of the box.

Shouldn't a guy with Henderson's speed and semi-power be expected to be more in the Cedeno range of only 3.2 singles per double?

Henderson had 510 doubles in his career, and by a rough estimation, it's expected that he would've had about 130 more of his singles turned into doubles.

bedir than average · 05-02-2008, 06:35 PM

I'm actually more surprised by Nixon and Ichiro!

jtur88 · 05-02-2008, 07:34 PM

Mays, with his speed, was very close to Yaz (3.5) and Aaron (3.7)

Triad · 05-02-2008, 07:38 PM

It's also interesting to note that a lot of the guys near the bottom of the list are the 30-30 types, combining speed and power.

Bonds
Bonds
Soriano
Mays
Beltran
Larkin
Abreu
Guerrero

The reason I isolate it to a 1B:2B ratio is to keep extraneous data out of it (such as number of home runs). I'm wondering if Henderson didn't tend to hustle out of the box, figuring he'd lose a stolen base opportunity if he legged out a double.

jtur88 · 05-02-2008, 07:58 PM

That would certain apply to Vince Coleman---why would he take his chances trying for second with the ball in the outfield, when he could wait a minute and steal second with impuinity?

I just checked out the slowest base-cloggers of their eras (as I recall them):
Ken Reitz 3.7
Rube Walker 3.6

It might be more revealing to use 2B and 3B together, since the distinction between a double and a triple is often just the speed of the runner and/or the game circumstance, and your ratio penalizes the runner that goes all the way to third.

Grandstander · 05-03-2008, 09:09 AM

Maybe he deliberately irgnored the opportunities to stretch singles into doubles because he was more interested in racking up high stolen base totals. Rickey may well be the most eccentric ballplayer I've ever seen on the field. He was the anti Pete Rose in that on walks, he went to first like he was dragging the statue of liberty along with him. Those who saw him play a great deal would understand instantlly when I write that Rickey played as though his goal was to avoid spending a single calorie of energy which wasn't utterly critical to success. He also seemed to be quite deliberately slowing down on the bases in order to make the play close and exciting...and he had extraordinary instincts for doing this, I cannot recall ever seeing him called out on one of his slowdown plays. It has long been my impression that Rickey had that Muhammad Ali attitude where one is so damn good, that he can toy with the opposition and still beat them. He was definitely a man who was operating on a private agenda.

Simp · 05-03-2008, 09:25 PM

Those who saw him play a great deal would understand instantlly when I write that Rickey played as though his goal was to avoid spending a single calorie of energy which wasn't utterly critical to success.

Yankees fans will boo at the mere mention of his name. Remember the "snatch-catch"? "Hamstring" could've been his middle-name.

05-02-2008, 03:28 PM	#1 (permalink)
Triad Member Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Oregon Posts: 155	Rickey Henderson's Low 2B Totals Any theories on why Rickey Henderson's doubles were so low? Here's a comparison with a sampling of other fast runners of the last few decades, measuring number of career singles per double. (active players still in their twenties not included) 8.4 - Otis Nixon 7.3 - Ichiro Suzuki 6.9 - Brett Butler 6.4 - Vince Coleman 6.2 - Willie Wilson 5.8 - Ron LeFlore 5.7 - Bert Campaneris 5.6 - Omar Moreno 5.4 - Rod Carew 5.4 - Luis Aparicio 5.3 - Dave Lopes 4.9 - Ozzie Smith 4.9 - Willie McGee 4.7 - Kenny Lofton 4.7 - Willie Davis 4.7 - Delino DeShields 4.6 - Lou Brock 4.5 - Derek Jeter 4.4 - Tim Raines 4.4 - Tony Gwynn 4.3 - Rickey Henderson 4.2 - Chuck Knoblauch 4.2 - Rafael Furcal 4.1 - Ryne Sandberg 4.1 - Jose Cruz 3.9 - Bobby Bonds 3.9 - Eric Young 3.9 - Paul Molitor 3.9 - Vada Pinson 3.8 - Roberto Alomar 3.8 - Joe Morgan 3.7 - Barry Larkin 3.7 - Eric Davis 3.7 - Amos Otis 3.7 - Willie Mays 3.7 - Johnny Damon 3.6 - Juan Samuel 3.4 - Devon White 3.4 - Andre Dawson 3.2 - Cesar Cedeno 3.2 - Vladimir Guerrero 3.1 - Craig Biggio 3.1 - Brady Anderson 3.0 - Carlos Beltran 2.6 - Bobby Abreu 2.6 - Alfonso Soriano 2.5 - Barry Bonds Henderson was faster than most of the players on this list who hit doubles more frequently, and he had more pop in his bat than most of them. So why didn't he hit very many doubles? Guys near the top of this list are typically slap hitters. Guys near the bottom of the list would be those who had a good speed-power combo, and hustled out of the box. Shouldn't a guy with Henderson's speed and semi-power be expected to be more in the Cedeno range of only 3.2 singles per double? Henderson had 510 doubles in his career, and by a rough estimation, it's expected that he would've had about 130 more of his singles turned into doubles.

05-02-2008, 06:35 PM	#2 (permalink)
bedir than average Administrator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Starbucks Posts: 7,837	I'm actually more surprised by Nixon and Ichiro! __________________ What's been posted on FanHome since you've been away? Click here to see "You're only so sure you're right because they're so sure you're wrong." Orson Scott Card in Xenocide

05-02-2008, 07:34 PM	#3 (permalink)
jtur88 Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: South Texas Posts: 5,738	Mays, with his speed, was very close to Yaz (3.5) and Aaron (3.7) __________________ "Rules are to guide the wise and command the foolish. The wise know when to break them." Last edited by jtur88 : 05-02-2008 at 07:55 PM.

05-02-2008, 07:38 PM	#4 (permalink)
Triad Member Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Oregon Posts: 155	It's also interesting to note that a lot of the guys near the bottom of the list are the 30-30 types, combining speed and power. Bonds Bonds Soriano Mays Beltran Larkin Abreu Guerrero The reason I isolate it to a 1B:2B ratio is to keep extraneous data out of it (such as number of home runs). I'm wondering if Henderson didn't tend to hustle out of the box, figuring he'd lose a stolen base opportunity if he legged out a double. Last edited by Triad : 05-02-2008 at 07:49 PM.

05-02-2008, 07:58 PM	#5 (permalink)
jtur88 Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: South Texas Posts: 5,738	That would certain apply to Vince Coleman---why would he take his chances trying for second with the ball in the outfield, when he could wait a minute and steal second with impuinity? I just checked out the slowest base-cloggers of their eras (as I recall them): Ken Reitz 3.7 Rube Walker 3.6 It might be more revealing to use 2B and 3B together, since the distinction between a double and a triple is often just the speed of the runner and/or the game circumstance, and your ratio penalizes the runner that goes all the way to third. __________________ "Rules are to guide the wise and command the foolish. The wise know when to break them." Last edited by jtur88 : 05-02-2008 at 08:10 PM.

05-03-2008, 09:09 AM	#6 (permalink)
Grandstander Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 4,833	Maybe he deliberately irgnored the opportunities to stretch singles into doubles because he was more interested in racking up high stolen base totals. Rickey may well be the most eccentric ballplayer I've ever seen on the field. He was the anti Pete Rose in that on walks, he went to first like he was dragging the statue of liberty along with him. Those who saw him play a great deal would understand instantlly when I write that Rickey played as though his goal was to avoid spending a single calorie of energy which wasn't utterly critical to success. He also seemed to be quite deliberately slowing down on the bases in order to make the play close and exciting...and he had extraordinary instincts for doing this, I cannot recall ever seeing him called out on one of his slowdown plays. It has long been my impression that Rickey had that Muhammad Ali attitude where one is so damn good, that he can toy with the opposition and still beat them. He was definitely a man who was operating on a private agenda.

05-03-2008, 09:25 PM	#7 (permalink)
Simp Member Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 305	Those who saw him play a great deal would understand instantlly when I write that Rickey played as though his goal was to avoid spending a single calorie of energy which wasn't utterly critical to success. Yankees fans will boo at the mere mention of his name. Remember the "snatch-catch"? "Hamstring" could've been his middle-name.