36 Triples

[jtur88]

What would it take in the 21st century for a playe to break Owen Wilson's record of 36 triples?

Wilson batted only .300 in 1912, with 175 hits. Only 106 were singles. I am presuming that he played that year with the run-til-you're-out philosophy, since he hit only 19 doubles. Suggesting that he hit 55 gappers, went for a triple every time, but got thrown out at third 19 times. Apparenly, he often didnt even stop at third, as he finished only 3 HRs behind the league leader, But his home run average was about constant through four seasons, so those were probably mostly over the wall.

A generation ago, the triples leader was typically in the mid-teens, and decades would pass without anybody hitting 20. but in recent years, there is usually a player who flirts with or exceeds 20. Relevant to this, though, is that with modern strategy, few players would try to stretch a double into a triple unless there is one out. Risk outweighs the benefit with no outs or two outs. So, unless it ball is still rolling around on the warning track, only about one-third of all doubles would be stretched into a triple. Wilson's Pirates finished in second place, ten games out, but his manager (Fred Clarke) must have tolerated Wilson running him out of a lot of innings. He must have dedicated himself to triples only in that (and the less successful following) season, since the year before, he had 34 doubles, but only 12 triples. He wasn't much of a base-stealer, averaging about ten in an era when dozens of players would steal 30.

Extrapolating from that, one could conclude that a 15-triple player hits most of them with one out, and with disregard for the game situation, might easily reach the 30 mark. I do not know the inning-outs distribution of the triples being hit by recent players with 20---if anybody knows, that would be interesting data. It would also be interesting to see the field configurations of the ballparks that Wilson hit most of his triples in.

Athletes are faster now than in Wilson's time, they wear better designed shoes, and their uniform offers less wind resistance, and they run on a better-maintained base track. (On the other hand, outfield bounces are true on symmetrical fields.) We passed recently through an era when players would steal bases at will, irrespective of strategic benefit. Is it only a matter of time before somebody decides to hit 36 triples? That would require an average of 6 a month, and nobody yet this April has more than 3.

In 1949, Dale Mitchell (Don Larsen's last out) hit 23 triples and only 16 doubles. Was he the last to try to stretch 'em all? In the next half century, only two players (Mays and Willie Wilson) hit 20. Three have done it since 2000.

[Grandstander]

While it fails to explain why others did not capitalize on it to the degree that Wilson did in 1912, nor why Wilson never came anywhere close to the record in any other season, it should be pointed out that the Pirates were playing in Forbes Field and it was 462 feet to centerfield, 376 feet to the rightfield corner, 360 feet to the leftfield corner. There was an awful lot of space for the ball to roll around before it could be policed by an outfielder. 24 of Wilson's 36 triples were hit in Forbes Field, 12 on the road.

Forbes was famous, even back then, for being the best triples park in baseball, while at the same time being the worst park for homeruns.

In addition, triples were easier to come by in those days because several of the venues featured outfields where rather than walls, they had roped off sections behind which were standing spectators. When a ball rolled into the crowd, it was still in play. Until 1926, Forbes Field had bleacher sections in center and leftfield, but the rope situation in right. In 1926, an outfield grandstand was built, shortening the parks enormous fair territory space. In the 17 years before that, the NL triples leader for the season had been a Pirate seven times. (Out of 8 teams) From 1909 through 1925, the Pirates led the NL in triples 8 times, finished second five times and third once. In some of those years they led by immense margins.

Some of the newer parks which have been built, have enhanced triples production, particularly in San Francisco, Houston and Cinncinatti, each featuring odd angles in outfield walls which generate hard to anticipate rebounds. But since the Polo Grounds closed, there aren't any parks remotely close to the conditions which prevailed for Wilson.

[jtur88]

Speaking of doubles and triples, Musial holds one of the most amazing of all records. He led the league in BOTH doubles and triples four times, and led the Majors in both twice. Brock led the majors once. Wagner led his league twice, and Pete Rieser once, but not the majors.

By contrast, Mays never led the league in doubles at all, and was in the top three only twice. Sam Crawford led the league in triples 6 times, but doubles only once.

The record for most doubles and triples combined in a season is held by Joe Medwick, with 64+13=77. Earl Webb was the anti-Owen Wilson, hitting 67 doubles, but stretching it to third only 3 times. (He could have hit 70!)

[jtur88]

GS, your point is well taken about the field configuration, which was obviously a factor that would allow the Pirates to hit a lot of triples. However, if you discount the Wilson anomaly and adjust his totals to his own career typical, the Pirates hit only 28% more triples than the average NL team. In modern times, there is generally a team that hits as much as 50% more triples than the league average, and that team varies from year to year, suggesting it is not a park factor. In '07, the Tigers exceeded the league average by 61%, and in '05 it was the Dodgers by 81%.

Among Wilson's teammates, the 1912 2B/3B ratios, in the same ball park, were Honus Wagner 35/20, Dots Miller 33/12, Max Carey 23/8

[Grandstander]

jtur:

if you discount the Wilson anomaly and adjust his totals to typical, the rest of the Pirates hit only 28% more triples than the average NL team.

28 % is "only?" An average team might hit 75 triples, while the Pirates hit 96...and that's "only?"

[jtur88]

Originally Posted by Grandstander

jtur:


28 % is "only?" An average team might hit 75 triples, while the Pirates hit 96...and that's "only?"

Yes, compared to disparities in recent years of 60-80% on triples. Even for categories like HBP, the team that leads typically has 50% more than the league average. Clearly not park factor.

The point of my question, though, was not how and why he did it, but could somebody else do it under modern playing conditions? When people were leading the league with 12 stolen bases, it might have been asked if Ty Cobb's 96 was impossible under modern conditions. It obviously was not. Could Granderson have hit 13 more, if he had tried in every no-out or 2-out situation where he thought he could make it? In the 50's, when 9 was enough to lead the league, there were plenty of parks with odd configurations.

[Grandstander]

jtur:

In modern times, there is generally a team that hits as much as 50% more triples than the league average, and that team varies from year to year, suggesting it is not a park factor

Aren't percentage disparities greatly enhanced when the overall sampling base is reduced? Last season, the Phillies led the NL with 41 team triples. In 2007 it was the Dodgers with 58. In 1995, 43 triples by the Braves was good enough to lead the league. 1985 it was 58, 1975..54, 1965.. 61, 1955..55, 1945...71..and in 1935 it would have been 68 by the Reds, except that those triple happy Pirates hit 90.

In the 1900's and 1910's, generally, 90 to 100 triples were needed to lead the league and the last place clubs were putting up totals that in many modern years, would have lead the league.

So, with fewer triples being hit overall, it stands to reason that it is easier for one club to have a larger percentage advantage.

[jtur88]

OK, use BBs in 2007. Leader, Boston, 689. MLB average 536. Variance "only" 28%. Would you expect more or less? Do you park adjust it?

Sac Flies: 65, 47, 38%

Strikeouts: 1332, 1073, 24%

Caught stealing: 55, 33, 67%

Errors: 137, 100, 37%

So, a 28% variance does not look like something one would sit up and take notice of, and start searching for ways to park-adjust it, although I have stated that I agree with you that it is almost certainly, to some extent, attributable to the ballpark. Things that can be conspicuously park-adjusted , I would expect a wider variance than that. So I said "only".

Since this is the only point you seem to want to quarrel with, I assume we are largely in agreement on much of the rest of my offering?

[LongtimeBravesFan]

Looking at the all time triples list is interesting. The living player with the most triples is Stan Musial, who is 87 and tied for 19th place with Rabbit Maranville with 177. I'm 40 and the first plaer on the list who played in my lifetime is Roberto Clemnte with 166 in a tie for 27th place. To reach a player I remember playing I have to get to Lou Brock in 63rd place with 141.

The top active player is Johnny Damon in 218th place with 88. Basebal Reference lists Kenny Lofton as active in 106th place with 116, but he is not on a roster at this moment.

To reach the top 1000 all time (actually the top 1030 de to a 33 way tie for 998th place, you'd need only 37 triples. so Wilson almost made the list i just one season. There are three active players in that 33 way tie, so once J.D. Drew, Curtis Granderson and Ken Griffey triple, the ist will be pared down a bit.


Wilson only played nine seasons and had 114 carer triples to put him in a tie for 110th al time

[Triad]

Originally Posted by jtur88

What would it take in the 21st century for a playe to break Owen Wilson's record of 36 triples?

36 triples, while doable in modern times, is not all that likely. I doubt if it will be accomplished over the next 30 years. You mention that players are faster now, but so are the outfielders who chase down the balls. With a ball bouncing off a wall or bounding around in the corner, there's not a lot of time to go 270 feet while the outfielder is retrieving the ball. And there aren't enough quirky bounces during the season for one batter to get him an extra 10-15 chances to get all the way to 3rd.

Point B is that there are fewer triples-type hitters now. More players go for the long ball, which takes away from their double and triple totals.

The easiest way to get a triple is to hit it down the right field line, and then the right fielder generally has to misplay it or have been playing way off the line.

A right-handed batter is not going to hit very many balls down the right field line, so that eliminates about two-thirds of the batting population.

The other less conventional way to hit triples is to hit balls into the gaps, and just be a super-fast runner. And even then, it has to be equally distant from the two outfielders it goes between, otherwise they come up with the ball well before the runner reaches 2nd.

Most triples in a season by active players, with batting direction in parentheses:

Curtis Granderson - 23 (L)
Cristian Guzman - 22 (S)
Jimmy Rollins - 20 (S)
Carl Crawford - 19 (L)
Chone Figgins - 17 (S)
Jose Reyes - 17 (S)
Jose Reyes - 17 (S)
Carl Crawford - 16 (L)
Carl Crawford - 15 (L)

No strictly right-handed batters on the list.

Of the top 20 active career triples leaders, only four are strictly right-handed, and none of those are in the top 10.

Most triples in a season, inactive players, since 1950:

Lance Johnson - 21 (L)
Willie Wilson - 21 (S)
George Brett - 20 (L)
Willie Mays - 20 (R)
Juan Samuel - 19 (R)
Ryne Sandberg - 19 (R)
Garry Templeton - 19 (S)
Willie McGee - 18 (S)
Minnie Minoso - 18 (R)
Garry Templeton - 18 (S)
Tony Fernandez - 17 (S)
Ralph Garr - 17 (L)
Jim Gilliam - 17 (S)
Johnny Callison - 16 (L)
Rod Carew - 16 (L)
Willie Davis - 16 (L)
Paul Molitor - 16 (R)
Jim Rivera - 16 (L)

Only 5 of 18 were strictly right-handed.

I also note the high proportion of switch-hitters on the lists, which only makes sense, because switch-hitters tend to be the speedy types, and they bat left-handed most of the time anyway, so they'll still have lots more opportunities to pull the ball down the right field line.

Active stolen base leaders, with number of 10+ triple seasons, and high in parentheses:

Kenny Lofton - 2 (13)
Barry Bonds - 0 (9)
Juan Pierre - 4 (13)
Omar Vizquel - 1 (10)
Johnny Damon - 3 (11)
Luis Castillo - 1 (10)
Reggie Sanders - 0 (8)
Bobby Abreu - 2 (11)
Carl Crawford - 3 (19)
Ichiro Suzuki - 1 (12)
Edgar Renteria - 0 (4)
Mike Cameron - 0 (9)
Ray Durham - 1 (10)
Alex Rodriguez - 0 (6)
Derek Jeter - 0 (9)
Rafael Furcal - 2 (11)
Carlos Beltran - 2 (12)
Jimmy Rollins - 5 (20)
Gary Sheffield - 0 (5)
Jose Reyes - 3 (17)

Other retired players of note:

Rickey Henderson - 0 (7)
Lou Brock - 6 (14)
Tim Raines - 2 (13)
Vince Coleman - 4 (12)
Joe Morgan - 3 (12)
Willie Wilson - 6 (21)