The Future of Japanese Baseball is MLB?

[bedir than average]

Jim Allen of the Daily Yomiuri
lead

Nippon Professional Baseball is living on borrowed time. Within 10 years, it is very unlikely Japan's pro baseball establishment will exist in its current form.

later

But MLB is eager to do more than just latch on to Asia's best players and sell more to its growing Asian audience watching on TV.

"The idea of having MLB teams in Asia...is a possibility. I think it's probably probable," Jim Small, MLB's top man in Asia told the Hot Corner a week ago. "At this time we're moving in that direction--little by little."

I'm amazed that someone in Japan is thinking this. Makes the 80+M$ spent on posting this year seem kind of small.

[kfkorn]

I am not sure what to think of MLB teams in Asia, but this is something that might not happen until at least ten years from now.

I do understand about MLB teams wanting to latch onto Asia's best players and I do understand the MLB wanting to increase its Asian audience.

[bedir than average]

The thing is that Seibu was paid over two times their payroll just for one guy. Hanshin got about 120% or so of their payroll for another. In both cases though they are borrowing against the future really. NPB is dying.

[Jim Potable]

On that note, I thought I'd repost these payrolls. I had posted them on the old board back in May. These figures are according to the Chunichi Shimbun (print edition), 3 May 2006. The figures do not include foreign players or performance bonuses.

Team        #P  2006 Payroll* AVG** 1-gun AVG Change***
Softbank    63    2.74960     43.64    71.83   -3.35
Lotte       61    2.40690     39.46    60.80   +6.66
Nippon Ham  59    2.14560     36.37    68.43   +8.03
Seibu       59    2.09740     35.55    63.51   -1.51
Orix        64    1.96690     30.73    62.43  +14.78
Rakuten     63    1.48940     23.64    29.55   -9.27
PL         369   12.85580     34.84    59.36   -2.22

Yomiuri     63    3.45446     54.83   101.33  -18.50
Chunichi    63    2.95890     46.97    92.77  +10.48
Hanshin     63    2.89240     45.91    89.04  +19.38
Yakult      63    2.14750     34.09    54.07  -10.06
Yokohama    60    2.06085     34.35    55.00  -42.13
Hiroshima   62    1.50000     24.19    43.46   +0.88
CL         374   15.01411     40.14    72.35   -5.84

All NPB    743   27.86991     37.51    65.83   -1.87

* Payroll in billion yen
** Player salary averages in million yen
*** From last season's 1-gun team (1-gun, the big club; 2-gun, the farm)

So, for example, Softbank's 2.74960 billion yen payroll would be about $23,643,321 US. Similarly, the average Softbank player makes 43.64 million yen, or around $375,252 US.

Of the 743 players, 72 ballplayers received an annual salary of 100 million yen ($859,882) or more.

In short, the $51,111,111 posting fee the Red Sox are paying to negotiate with Matsuzaka could cover two or three NPB teams. (Assuming they work a deal in the next four or five days and end up paying it.) But of course, Mr. Allen's article is addressing the more urgent need for NPB to restructure and overcome selfishness.

[Goose]

A MLB team in Japan. I wonder how they would manage that with the travel? It would be about as difficult as having a team in Hawaii.

I personally, don't see it happening.

[Jim Potable]

I don't believe it's so much as playing against US-based teams on the same schedule -- with travel and whatnot -- but rather, having the "Tokyo Yankees" and "Chunichi Dodgers" -- an Asian farm, if you will. The dreaded NPB is just becoming an MLB farm, a fear that has often been expressed here.

Unless NPB can work out its differences and rework its business -- marketing, ticket sales, etc -- and (as suggested in the article, and as Bobby Valentine had suggested just a few months ago) expand its own farm system, the future of NPB is not bright.

[bigheadache]

I think it is entirely possible that at least one of the posted players this year does not get signed and then Japan is really faced with a mess.

[bedir than average]

SPECIAL REPORT: Race on to strike into Chinese market : Sports : DAILY YOMIURI ONLINE (The Daily Yomiuri)

Hints in the Daily Yomuiri that the future of baseball in Asia might be an MLB run Asian "division" though by mention Japan, China, Korea and Taiwan that would seem more ripe for a third "Major" league.

I mean NPB has 12 teams now, but not of MLB level, likely just under it. But they likely have more than a 6 team division's worth of talent, especially if the full Asian market is tapped.