How Good Was George Sisler?

[LouGehrig]

Sisler and Gehrig each batted .340. Only Bill Terry had a higher lifetime batting average. Was Sisler as good as Gehrig?


The Baseball Reader

[nanwynnfan]

I dusted off and updates some spreadsheets I prepared for outstanding [or favorite] players at each position [1901-present] in an effort to evaluate them, first offensively, then defensively, then a on a combined contribution basis.

First, I took several different approaches in arriving at Runs Created per Plate appearance, Linear Weights, Base Runs and my own variation on Linear Weights, only to find that the simple and expedient method [Total bases * OB%] worked as well as any, for my purposes.

Then, I projected players RC uniformly for 600 Plate Appearances.

I then added or subtracted Defense Runs based on games @ position, adjusted to comport reasonably with the concept of 600 plate appearances. extended over careers.

The final Runs Created below is the net of Offense +/- Defense as if it were in units of "600 PA." That is the content of Column A.

Column B is simply the Baseball-Reference RC profile for a "team" of each player listed & it is offensive. Whatever defensive offset you'd like to apply for any player, it shouln't amount to more than some decimalportion, certainly less than 1.

Player.............Net RC..............Baseball-Ref, R/G

Gehrig.............131.40...................10.9

Foxx...............128.34...................10.1

Helton............128.26.....................9.7

Greenberg.......125.75.....................9.3

Musial.............121.50....................8.9

Thomas..........113.82.....................8.9

Thome...........112.98.....................8.8

McGwire.........111.18.....................8.5

Mize..............111.36.....................8.4

Bagwell..........112.38.....................8.1

Terry.............110.88.....................7.7

Murray............97.74......................6.1

Sisler..............96.30......................6.8

Hernandez.......94.86......................6.3

The metrics for RC do favor the power hitters; and the defensive contribution of a top 1B with the glove may amount to +10-12 Defense Runs Saved over a full season, or 120-140 runs over an entire career. which of course contains seasons of injury, aging, loss of plating time and slight declines in glove skills.

The scoring climate of the player's time has to be considered and some would insist on the park factor; but for a quick look at the very best, I think this makes a fair representation.

So, Sisler was one of the greats, a solid contact, high average, good on-base guy, samrt baserunner and solid defender; but in the legacy of the entire career, his eye troubles and interrupted peak overall reduce him to the top dozen or so over the 1901-2007 span [which isn't bad at all].

At their peaks, Sisler [ages 24 through 32] and Terry [ages 28 through 35] would move up alonside Musial, as pillars of consistency, with Terry getting an edge on defense + power.

[LouGehrig]

In the 1950s, the debate was whether Gehrig or Sisler was the greatest first baseman of all time. Gehrig won because of his power.

[nanwynnfan]

Originally Posted by LouGehrig

In the 1950s, the debate was whether Gehrig or Sisler was the greatest first baseman of all time. Gehrig won because of his power.

Sorry to correct you, but that is simply not the case.

In the '50s, the one guy held up for comparison with Gehrig was Jimmie Foxx and there was lots of good fodder for those arguing Foxx's case: versatility he played 3B and C - even pitched some] and awesome numbers.

Sisler and Terry got equal support from the generation before mine; but even they saw Gehrig as the best - ever. Gehrig's sudden and tragic leaving of the game after his Iron Man record plus the center stage of his NY playing venue added to the aura around him, overshadowing Foxx.

All in all, Gehrig>Foxx>Terry=Sisler about sums up the '50s point of view of the all-time 1B greats.

[jtur88]

A relevant, but not critical difference is their fielding. While fielding is not life-and-death to a 1B, the fact is that Gehrig, if the DH rule had been there in those days, wouldn't have even owned a glove. Meanwhile, Sislier was a respected defensive first basemen of his time. Gehrig would go for a week at a time without making a single assist.

Here are some career PO/A ratios:

Vic Power 9.4:1
George Scott 10.3:1
Keith Hernandez 10.6:1
George Sisler 12.3:1
David Ortiz 13.5:1
Willie Aikens 14.3:1
Lou Gehrig 18.0:1

Somehow, I cannot believe that Gehrig had a pathological insistence on waving the pitcher away and racing the runner to the bag.

[nanwynnfan]

"While fielding is not life-and-death to a 1B, the fact is that Gehrig, if the DH rule had been there in those days, wouldn't have even owned a glove."

That is sheer nonsense.

Gehrig was no Hernandez, Hassett, Fain, Burns, or Judge; but during his years with the Yankees, he would rank somewhere in the middle of the pack, 4-5-6 in a league of 8 teams. And he was in with some fair MLB defensive competitors at 1B:

1925: Grimm NL], Todt, Sisler; [Gehrig top 4], AL
1926: Pipp, Todt; Gehrig [top4, AL]
1927: Terry [NL]; Todt, Sisler, Gehrig [top 3]
1928: Terry [NL]; Clancy
1929: Terry [NL]; Fonseca [Gehrig, top 3 AL]
1930: Terry [NL]; Judge
1931: Hurst [NL]; Harvey, Burns
1932: Terry [NL] & Grimm [NL]; Burns, Alexander
1933: Terry [NL] & Hurst [NL]; Burns
1934: Terry [NL]; Foxx, Gehrig
1935: Cavaretta [NL] & Terry [NL]; Greenberg, Gehrig [top 3, AL]]
1936: Jordan [NL]; Bonura, Gehrig, top 3 AL]
1937: Camilli & Fletcher [NL]; Greenberg, Kuhel, Foxx
1938: Collins & Suhr [NL]; Greenberg, Foxx,

B-P ratings for Gehrig [some disagree with mine]: 1925 [106]; 1926 [101]; 1927 [91]; 1928 [96]; 1929 [106]; 1930 [99]; 1931 [98]; 1932 [106]; 1933 [97]; 1934 [110]; 1935 [109]; 1936 [108]; 1937 [93]; 1938 [91]

B-P has Gehrig, career, a collective +9 Defense Runs Saved above Average, some fine years, some a bit sub-par, but in no way the image posted by jtur.


There are 3 guys listed here whom I've seen listed as poor fielding 1B Alexander, Greenberg and Gehrig] and one whom some will remember only after he apparently quit caring to play on defense. That last one is Zeke Bonura, who flashed great talent with both bat and glove; but for whatever reason, then developed a reputation for "waving" at fielding attempts he had previously dived for. His hitting dropped off as well.

Greenberg and Alexander at 1B were much like Boggs at 3B, working at the defensive side until they'd pretty well mastered it.

Foxx should come as no surprise as competent at 1B, having played 3B and C at the MLB level, Heck, he logged one game @ SS - and pitched some, too.

No one has to take my word for Gehrig. Baseball-Prospectus rates him as follows on their +/- 100 rating system: 100=average, with scores>100 indicating above average performance at the defensive position played.

[jtur88]

Any idea what statistical criteria were used to rate those defensive first-basemen? If a 1B has woefully small numbers of assists, what metric would make up for it?

[WilsonC]

It could simply be a preference for making the putouts himself, and not making unnecessary throws. Taken in isolation, assists don't mean too much for a firsbaseman, as it many fielding chances are discretionary as to whether to take the putout or flip to the pitcher - something more representative of style than skill. The difference can show up in putouts, but it's a little tricky to detect that, as so many putouts are simply catching a thrown ball.

[nanwynnfan]

Originally Posted by jtur88

Any idea what statistical criteria were used to rate those defensive first-basemen? If a 1B has woefully small numbers of assists, what metric would make up for it?

My own metric places a particular value on assists unique to each position, which considers athletic demands on range, throwing, nature of batted balls fielded. Assists, therefore are more heavily rated than putouts, which are given a base value, because the nature of putouts, relative to assists is more routine, by volume.

Such things as OF assists weigh heavily as well, with PO again being lesser, and each OF position unique to reflect patterns in batted ball distributions.

Similarly DPs get added value, in recognition of execution, with SS and 2B deriving more benefit than the corners, with OF DP's getting a bit extra an indication of either arm strength or accuracy.

Errors do not make or break players at any position, nor should they, as rangier guys who get to balls others can't reach will have more error opportunities, and often more errors than inferior players.

Gehrig ranges between 72-100 assists per season, generally coming down around 81 or so average. The top gloves at 1B in his era reached as high as 130 in a peak season; but the best settled at a year-in, year-out level @ 90-95.

When Gehrig got a ball, he seldom erred; and he was good at digging bad throws out of the dirt and saving short-hoppers. He had sure hands but less range than the best of his era.

Typically, Gehrig might have 82 assists and 12 errors; and a top range guy might have 100 assists and 16 errors; so one might save his team 7-9 Defense Runs above average, while Gehrig would be near neutral, with a few fine years around +3-5 Defense Runs Saved, most around 0; + 2
and a few @ -1 to -5. He more than held his own at average.

On the tossing assists vs unassisted PO, from what my father told me that Gehrig at 1B was comparable to Dickey behind the plate, by shared economy of effort [not laziness]. If Gehrig believed he could beat the runner to the bag, he executed by himself. He was not fool enough to do so when the odds were too close.

The comparison with Dickey was something my father pointed out to me several times at Yankee Stadium. If Dickey toseed his mask when a foul pop was hit, it was virtually a guaranteed out. What was unique about this was that it applied to foul pops behind him, straight back, left side or right side.

If Dickey remained crouched, the ball always ended on the screen or in the stands. He never saw Dickey embarrass himself with a ball dropping in playable territory.

He presumed this applied only at home. No wasted effort. No unnecessary chance for error.

[jtur88]

One needs to be very careful about lore. I bet your dad was a Yankee fan. My dad was a Cardinals fan, and he wouldn't have traded Ripper Collins for two Lou Gehrigs, straight up. Further, in those days, 90% (Maybe 100%) of writers who reached a national audince saw 77 Yankee games a year.

There is a strong tendency for a writer to see a player do something once, write about it, and for the rest of the players career, the fans think he does it all the time.

Maybe Gehrig did wave the pitcher off a lot. I see way too many risky tosses, and it I were a MLB 1B, I'd run the bag everytime I had a certainty, which is not that hard to judge. Other factors could contribute to low assist numbers. How good was his arm? Maybe he rarely took the lead runner. Maybe he rarely served as a cutoff man to get a few assists a year on runners making a wide turn or trying to score. We just don't know, except anecdotally from written observations, which in the case of Yankees, have always been more subjective than praise for any other team's players.

[nanwynnfan]

"One needs to be very careful about lore. I bet your dad was a Yankee fan. My dad was a Cardinals fan, and he wouldn't have traded Ripper Collins for two Lou Gehrigs, straight up. Further, in those days, 90% (Maybe 100%) of writers who reached a national audince saw 77 Yankee games a year.

"There is a strong tendency for a writer to see a player do something once, write about it, and for the rest of the players career, the fans think he does it all the time."

You asked about metrics, and I explained mine. I did not offer explanations for baseball Prospectus +/- 100 system, because I am not easily conversant with the formulas used.

I offered the "lore" as a possible explanation of Gehrig preferring to wave pitchers off the bag; and I used the Dickey reference to explain what I meant by economy of effort.

My father, in fact was more a fan of individual players; and his childhood idol was Nap Lajoie, so I'd guess he was a Cleveland fan who respected the Yankees.

You seem to be implying one view snapshots. I saw Dickey countless times at the Stadium; and what I witnessed bore out how well memorized he had that foul territory against a certain instinct with the sound of the bat.

If you want to discuss "Ripper" Collins, then let's do so; but you seem to impugn my response to your question as somehow being invalidated.

[jtur88]

Originally Posted by nanwynnfan

"

If you want to discuss "Ripper" Collins, then let's do so; but you seem to impugn my response to your question as somehow being invalidated.

I had no intention of impugning anybody---I used that anecdote to illustrate the way in which stories of early ball players can come down to us with imperfect objectivity. My apologies if any offense was taken---none was intended,

[LongtimeBravesFan]

Originally Posted by jtur88

While fielding is not life-and-death to a 1B,

This line made me chuckle considering you were comparing a man who died young and one whose career was shortened by health problems.

[jtur88]

Originally Posted by LongtimeBravesFan

This line made me chuckle considering you were comparing a man who died young and one whose career was shortened by health problems.

I think Willie Aikens is serving a life term, as well. BTW, He is one of the prisoners who might his case reviewed on the faulty forensics used by the FBI to convict a couple of hundred prisoners.