Non-HoF Guys, the Pitchers

[nanwynnfan]

Using the same parameters I did for position players, the following pitchers, all pretty darn good, will in all probability, never enter the HoF.

There are no active pitchers listed, because they MIGHT get in one day; and I do know I've listed one pitcher whose last active date has him entering the eligibility period; and he may well get voted in.

Essentially, these are pitchers whom I was fortunate enough to have seen in action; and their careers basically run from the era @ 1930-1990.

I am not arguing that they all should be voted in, or even most of them; but they probably deserve a lot more respect, in memory, than they get.

I took one extra step in addition to listing them and their peak periods, and that is to measure two factors:

-the opponents' batting average [career] against them as RELATED to predominant league batting during their careers;

-factoring that in with their [WHIP = walks + hits/innings pitched], again with that related to league WHIP during their careers;

-melding the two factors into a weighted combined factor, then adjusted for the hitting climate they pitched in ... and converting that figure into something resembling an ERA [which it is not].

The bottom-line for being listed at all was to have a discernable peak period of consecutive solid seasons within a career of reasonable length. If war or injury interrupted the peak, I included the pitcher, including as well the off years. The “Rating” column is based on career, not the isolated peak seasons.

* = military; # = injury; *# = both

The best ever would come in @ 3.35; and they would be rarer than hen's teeth. Order is jumbled; rating would be low=best.

Pitcher...............................Peak Years............Rating

Johnny Allen........................1932-38...............4.02
Wilbur Wood........................1968-74...............4.56
Bert Blyleven.......................1970-78…………4.32
Al Benton……………….....1938-45…………4.49
Fernando Valenzuela………1981-85…………4.43
Mort Cooper……………….1942-46…………4.17
Sal Maglie………………….1950-56………...4.40
Max Lanier…………………1940-50………...4.50
Harry Brecheen……………1943-49………….4.10
Kevin Appier………………1991-97…………4.08
Tommy Bridges……………1932-40…………4.22
Bucky Walters……………...1939-44…………4.16
*#Tex Hughson…………….1942-47…………3.94
*Spud Chandler…………….1941-46…………3.87
Al Benton…………………...1938-45…………4.40
Gary Nolan………………….1967-72…………4.29
Al Leiter…………………….1995-04…………4.27 [exception]
Kevin Brown………………..1992-01…………4.02 [exception]
Andy Messersmith…………..1969-75………...4.12
Bob Veale……………………1963-68………..4.84
Luis Tiant……………………1968-76………...4.40
Dean Chance…………………1962-68………..4,56
Ron Guidry…………………..1977-83………..4.25
J.R. Richard………………….1976-80………..4.32
Mel Parnell…………………...1948-53……….4.84
Preacher Roe…………………1948-52……….4.51
Ed Lopat……………………...1946-53……….4.43
Steve Rogers………………….1977-83……….4.38
Jack Morris……………………1981-87..……..4.36
Mike Garcia…………………..1949-54…….…4.65
Don Newcombe………………1949-56……….4.36
Billy Pierce……………………1951-58………4.41
Brett Saberhagen………………1985-89..…….4.36
Mel Harder……………….…..1932-39………..4.47
Lon Warneke………………….1932-36..……...4.13
“Dutch” Leonard..……[1934-41; 47-52]……….4.10
Sonny Siebert…………………1965-71……..…4.43
Bob Welch……………………1985-90……….4.48
Vida Blue……………………..1974-78……….4.47
“Dizzy” Trout………………...1942-47……….4.54
Dave Stieb…………………….1980-85………4.50
David Cone……………………1988-95………4.34
Mike Cuellar…………………..1967-73………4.32
Orel Hershiser…………………1984-89………4.61
Roy Face………………………1956-62………4.65
Bobby Shantz…………[1957-63]+1952………4.59
Rob Dibble…………………….1988-92………3.79
John Franco……………………1984-92………4.54
“Goose” Gossage………………1977-85……...4.09
Ted Wilks………………[1948-52]+44………..4.15
Robb Nen……………………..1994-02………..4.22
Lee Smith……………………..1985-91………..4.37
Dan Quisenberry………………1980-87……….4.52
Johnny Murphy……………......1936-43.………4.36
“Sparky” Lyle………………….1971-79..……..4.35

The narrow spread in the final column considers that these are/were all fine pitchers; and the numbers are adjusted for the hitting climate of their times. To estimate runs each would have saved per 9 innings pitched, above an average pitcher, I’d use the following:

Average pitcher = 5.00

Mel Harder = 4.47

Per nine IP = 5.00-4.47 = 0.53

200 IP = 22.2 nine inning games

For each 200 IP, Mel Harder would rate, career 22.2*.53 runs saved, above
average. Harder’s career totaled 3,426.33 innings or 380.7 nine inning games. I’m estimating harder saved 201 runs over his entire career [380.7*.53].

Covering a period like 1930-1990 has enough hazards for making solid adjustments; but I'll toss in a few observations on guys included:

-Al Benton had a career that spanned three decades, as a starter, a spot-starter, and a reliever, effective in all roles;

-"Dutch" Leonard toilled for 2 decades + with his knuckler, usually with losing clubs and seemed to have a pitching strategy of "Go on and hit it - you won't hurt me much." That + impeccable control made him a "horse."

-"Spud" Chandler, whom I saw many times [usually beating my Red Sox at Yankee Stadium], came up late @ 29 or 30 and then the Yankees seemed NOT to know how best to use him. He was a control pitcher, again one who dared the batters to put the ball in play. In a big money game, "Spud" Chanler would have to rate among the very best ever. [Also, military service].

-"Tex" Hughson was a sore arm victim who also served in the military. When he was sound, there was none better.

-Rob Dibble = the absolute scariest pitcher I ever saw in relief, literally seeming to knock the bats out of hitters' hands.

Etc.

[Nat]

I don't usually use the "so-and-so is in, therefore so-and-so should also be in" arguement, but Tiant's exclusion is very questionable when he was almost as good as Marichel and probably better than Hunter.

[nanwynnfan]

Nat, your response made me dig deeper into the sketchy numbers I presented as multi-ajusted "Ratings."

Those numbers, ranging generally from 3.80+ through 4.80+ over the years 1930-1990, could certainly be reshuffled depending on perspective.

For example, I had Tiant @ 4.40. Going back to the speadsheet [which includes HoF pitchers], I have Marichal @ 4.21 and Hunter @ 4.23.

I personally would have Marichal>Tiant>Hunter.

Looking at the determining factors I used in the equation, here is some background:

1. They were basically contemporary pitchers in a .250 BA climate, which I equated to a basic 4.50 +/- run value.

2. On the internals [career], here's how they measure up [on my inputs]:

Pitcher.........Hits/9IP.........BA Against.....BB/9IP.....K/9IP....Rating

Marichal..........8.09........... .231...........1.82.........5.91.....4.21

Tiant..............7.94............ .227...........2.85.........6.24.....4.40

Hunter............7.72............ .222...........2.49.........5.25.....4.23

I'd say Tiant had more year-to-year consistency within his career; but above are the numbers in a MLB .250 BA atmosphere over entire careers.

Marichal had 6 20 game seasons; Hunter, 5; and Tiant, 4.

Length od career, total IP, and pitching runs saved, IF you buy into my approach:

Pitcher..........MLB AVG....Rating.....Runs/9IP.....IP.........IP/9.........Runs

Marichal..........5.00.........4.21......... .79......3,507.3.....389.7...+307.9

Tiant..............5.00.........4.40......... .60......3.486.3.....387.4...+232.4

Hunter............5.00.........4.23......... .77......3.449.3.....383.3...+295.1

Man, talk about a close grouping for careers. Hard to argue against Tiant when the other two are in. I would say that, clearly, Marichal is #1 among the 3, but not by very much.

[WilsonC]

Dwight Gooden is up there on the could-have-been-great club. There's no question he had a Hall of Fame arm, if only he'd been able to stay healthy and not gotten into drug abuse.

Frank Tanana is another pitcher who I think's often overlooked, due to injury trouble. He had a few dominant seasons as a power pitcher in his prime, but shoulder trouble forced him to become more of an offspeed finesse pitcher. He wen't on to have a pretty long career as a mid-rotation type, which can overshadow the pitcher he was early on.

[bigheadache]

J.R. Richards was ablsolutely nasty, the best pitcher in baseball for a couple of years before his stroke. After he was out of baseball, he was homeless for a while, living beneach an underpass in Houston. Really a sad story.

[nanwynnfan]

J.R. Richard was absolutely awesome in his peak years.

Happily, his struggles after baseball seem to have ironed themselves out; and I hope the move to retire his number in HOU wins out.

From Wikipedia:

"n the winter of 1994, Richard was homeless and destitute and lived under a bridge in Houston.

"By 1995, Richard was eligible for his major league baseball pension. That year he also participated in the Old-Timers' Day game with the Astros. In the following months, he turned to the Now Testament Church and sought help from its minister, Reverend Floyd Lewis. Richard overcame his homelessness by working with this minister, with a belief that he "always knew God was on his side".[2] Richard would later become a minister at the church. He also started working at an asphalt company.[83]

Richard became involved in the Houston community, and started working with financial donors in Houston to help establish baseball programs for children.[8] A small-budget 2005 movie, Resurrection: The J.R. Richard Story, depicted Richard's baseball career as well as his life after baseball.[84] A recent online petition, created by Astros fans to convince the team to retire Richard's number, has collected over 3,100 signatures from Astros fans and other baseball enthusiasts."

[jtur88]

During a short peak, John Tudor might have been the greatest pitcher ever. In 1985, he started the season 1-7. After the end lf May, he went 20-1, and pitched ten shutouts. He actually pitched an eleventh shutout, (to tie Koufax for the record for a lefthander), but went into extras tied 0-0 with no decision. Batters who faced him said he was impossible to hit, even if you knew exactly what he was going to throw..

Eleven games in 4 months in which zero runs were allowed in 9 innings is probably something only accomplished once before (Alexander in 1916) and I can't even find Alexander's day-by-day record to confirm that he did it, but since he pitched 16 shutouts in a season of less than 5-1/2 months, no doubt he did.

But I guess a 4-month career peak does not a HoFer make.

[WilsonC]

Taking a look at some pitching stars over in Japan, one of the things that stands out is the number of innings pitched, similar to pitchers of the dead-ball era over here. As a result, many of the best individual seasons in Japan belong to dominant pitchers with very high innings totals, but there are comparatively few who sustained a long peak.

Masaichi Kaneda: Probably the greatest pitcher in Japanese history, largely due to his consistency and longevity as well as his dominance. A few others were as good in their prime, but lacked Kaneda's staying power. Kaneda had 14 consecutive seasons with more than 300 innings and 20+ wins, and finished his career with 400 wins and a 2.34 ERA, as well as over 4400 K in over 5500 innings.

Kazuhisa Inao: Inao was even more dominant than Kaneda, but was worked very hard - often both as a starter and relief ace - and so he didn't last as long. Like Sandy Koufax, he was incredible at his best, but heavy use took a toll on his arm, shortening his career.

Victor Starffin: A Russian-born pitcher who dominated during the Japanese deadball era. Starffin was the first 300 game winner in Japan, with some absolutely eye-popping seasons during his peak, including a 42-15 season in 1939, where he pitched 458 innings with a 1.73 ERA, and arguably an even better season in 1940 where he went 38-12 in 436 innings with a 0.97 ERA. His Russian descent cost him a couple prime years, as he was placed in detention camps in 1944 during WWII.

Eiji Sawamura: A legend in Japan, and the pitcher after whom the Japanese equivalent of the Cy Young award was named. As a 17-year old in 1934, he faced a touring all-star team, a game in which he struck out Ruth, Gehrig, Gehringer, and Foxx consecutively. In the five innings he pitched against those juggernauts, a Gehrig solo home run was the only run he allowed. Sadly, his career cut short when he was killed in service in WWII.

[nanwynnfan]

Thanks for that input. I was never much up-to-date on Japanese baseball outside of Oh and the American expatriate players there.