Another Collosal Collapse?

LouGehrig · 09-15-2007, 12:09 PM

Is it "Here we go again" again?

A Colossal Red Sox Collapse: The Red Sox Best Relief Pitchers Were Blasted

Zen653 · 09-15-2007, 12:23 PM

The Red Sox have an illustrious history of collapsing down the stretch. As someone who has watched this team all year, I can tell you that Boston has been exceedingly mediocre after May. The Red Sox shouldn't scare anyone, and certainly not the Yankees who have defeated Boston in 9 consecutive September games, and 8 of the last 10 regular season games.

Fortunately, falling out of first place doesn't really matter. With a 4 1/2 game lead over New York, and New York's 3 1/2 game lead over Detroit for the wild card, Boston effectively has a 6-7 game cushion to make the playoffs. And with just 14 games to play, most of them against sub-.500 teams, Boston could still limp into the playoffs with a record of 5-9 during this final stretch (assuming Detroit doesn't go 11-3 or 12-2.) A 7-7 record would all but clinch a spot no matter what Detroit does.

Once in the playoffs, anything can happen. The Red Sox have fared well against the Indians this year and seem to hang in there with the Angels. No one in the National League scares me. Boston would just have to hope that the Yankees get taken down in the first round.

LouGehrig · 09-15-2007, 02:00 PM

Which illustrates perfectly why the wild card makes these games so less meaningful.

If the Angels or Indians were not so close and one of the division winners were a poor team in a poor division, winning the AL East to get to play a weaker team would become more important.

Zen653 · 09-15-2007, 03:07 PM

Quote:

Which illustrates perfectly why the wild card makes these games so less meaningful.

It makes these particular games less meaningful but it also makes a whole lot of other games, for many other teams, very meaningful.

Look at the NL wild card race. There are a lot more teams in contention for a playoff spot than there would be under the old playoff system. The wild card also helps equalize the geographical disparity in talent.

Let's say that the Red Sox and Yankees finished with the two best records in all of baseball. Why should one of them be punished on account of its geography?

The wild card resolves this problem by allowing for both geographic representation (automatic bids for each division champion) and pure talent (the next best team, regardless of geography.)

Historically, wild card winners have had more regular season wins than many of the division champions. It's not as though we're getting bad teams in the wild card spot (although we've had plenty of weak division champions.)

I'd much rather see the best teams in the playoffs, even if it comes at the expense of certain late September division chases. Wild card chases are just as fun, and you can't say that the Red Sox-Yankees American League Championship Series' haven't been exciting.

I'll take an arguably less exhilarating September when it gives me a memorable October.

Zen653 · 09-18-2007, 11:38 PM

The Red Sox are now 2.5 games up in the division, with 10 to play. For all practical purposes, it's a 1.5 game lead because the Yankees won the season series and therefore own the tie-breaker. Boston is 1-4 over its last 5 games.

The Red Sox are showing a lot of arrogance right now. They're benching Manny Ramirez even though he's been taking batting practice for a full week. They're juggling their pitching rotation for a playoff spot they haven't clinched. They're resting perfectly healthy players like Papelbon, Buchholz and Kielty, while overplaying struggling stiffs like J.D Drew. They're removing starting pitchers early, even when they have low pitch counts and are mowing down the opposing hitters. They're grossly mismanaging the bullpen in order to boost Gagne's confidence, even at the expense of victories.

Take tonight, for example. The Red Sox were leading 2-1 heading into the 8th inning. The struggling Eric Gagne came in and got two quick outs. Then he slowly lost control. He couldn't throw his fastball for strikes. He couldn't fool the Toronto batters. He just couldn't get that final out. Meanwhile, the Yankees were beating up on the Orioles 12-0, and Papelbon, warming up on 3 full days of rest, remained in the bullpen. Gagne proceeded to walk 3 batters and give up 3 runs, escaping the inning only because of an outfield assist that cut down the third runner at the plate. What was Francona's post-game explanation for why he stayed with Gagne over a well-rested Papelbon? "We need Gagne to be dominant." Really? Even at the expense of a winnable game when your chief rival is nipping at your neck?

Boston doesn't deserve to win the division. The team obviously doesn't care about exorcising old demons and delivering a division title to its fans for the first time in 12 years. Otherwise the club would take these September games a lot more seriously, and actually make an effort to win them. It's 1978 all over again, only this time, the team is utterly apathetic when it comes to surrendering a 14.5 game lead. The complacency disgusts me.

Francona might as well forfeit the final 10 games. Give the guys some rest from travel.

LouGehrig · 09-19-2007, 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zen653

The Red Sox are now 2.5 games up in the division, with 10 to play. For all practical purposes, it's a 1.5 game lead because the Yankees won the season series and therefore own the tie-breaker. Boston is 1-4 over its last 5 games.

The Red Sox are showing a lot of arrogance right now. They're benching Manny Ramirez even though he's been taking batting practice for a full week. They're juggling their pitching rotation for a playoff spot they haven't clinched. They're resting perfectly healthy players like Papelbon, Buchholz and Kielty, while overplaying struggling stiffs like J.D Drew. They're removing starting pitchers early, even when they have low pitch counts and are mowing down the opposing hitters. They're grossly mismanaging the bullpen in order to boost Gagne's confidence, even at the expense of victories.

Take tonight, for example. The Red Sox were leading 2-1 heading into the 8th inning. The struggling Eric Gagne came in and got two quick outs. Then he slowly lost control. He couldn't throw his fastball for strikes. He couldn't fool the Toronto batters. He just couldn't get that final out. Meanwhile, the Yankees were beating up on the Orioles 12-0, and Papelbon, warming up on 3 full days of rest, remained in the bullpen. Gagne proceeded to walk 3 batters and give up 3 runs, escaping the inning only because of an outfield assist that cut down the third runner at the plate. What was Francona's post-game explanation for why he stayed with Gagne over a well-rested Papelbon? "We need Gagne to be dominant." Really? Even at the expense of a winnable game when your chief rival is nipping at your neck?

Boston doesn't deserve to win the division. The team obviously doesn't care about exorcising old demons and delivering a division title to its fans for the first time in 12 years. Otherwise the club would take these September games a lot more seriously, and actually make an effort to win them. It's 1978 all over again, only this time, the team is utterly apathetic when it comes to surrendering a 14.5 game lead. The complacency disgusts me.

Francona might as well forfeit the final 10 games. Give the guys some rest from travel.

What a great post. You state it magnificently. Imagine if only the division winner could make the playoffs.

How about the integrity of the game?

bedir than average · 09-19-2007, 08:02 PM

Imagine if only the top two teams in each league made the playoffs, in 2001 we wouldn't have had to put up with the damn yankees. Oakland won 102 and only came in second in their division.

Zen653 · 09-20-2007, 01:38 AM

And the lead is now down to 1.5 (really 0.5 because of the tie-breaker.) Absolutely sickening.

On the post game show tonight, one of the broadcasters asked the manager whether the Red Sox are still trying to win the division. Francona prevaricated and offered a telling non-answer. He replied, "We're trying to win a World Series Championship."

I'm starting to think Boston wants to lose the division. Maybe the Red Sox would rather play Games 3 and 4 of the ALDS in Boston. Perhaps they'd rather have the pundits and fans declare them dead so that the pressure is off. That way, anything good that happens in October would be classified as exceeding expectations.

I'm ticked off because I really wanted the division title. According to NESN, no team has ever surrendered more than a 14 game lead in the standings. The 1978 Red Sox squandered a 14 game lead and this year's Red Sox team appears poised to "better" that record by coughing up a 14.5 game lead.

LouGehrig · 09-20-2007, 12:08 PM

It's the format and the money. The casual fans love it because it gives them something to be interested in and to watch, usually without much emotion or concern about who wins.

I wrote an article that asks and shows what would have happened if today's set up existed in 1978. There would have been some amazing differences.

If the Red Sox Were Eliminated: If Today's Format Were Used in 1978, It Would Have Been So Different

09-15-2007, 12:09 PM	#1 (permalink)
LouGehrig Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Melbourne Posts: 217	Another Collosal Collapse? Is it "Here we go again" again? A Colossal Red Sox Collapse: The Red Sox Best Relief Pitchers Were Blasted

09-19-2007, 08:02 PM	#7 (permalink)
bedir than average Administrator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Starbucks Posts: 7,815	Imagine if only the top two teams in each league made the playoffs, in 2001 we wouldn't have had to put up with the damn yankees. Oakland won 102 and only came in second in their division. __________________ What's been posted on FanHome since you've been away? Click here to see "You're only so sure you're right because they're so sure you're wrong." Orson Scott Card in Xenocide

LinkBacks (?) LinkBack to this Thread: http://www.fanhome.com/forums/major-league-baseball/10045-another-collosal-collapse.html
Posted By	For	Type	Date
FanHome » Is Boston Headed for a Collapse?	This thread	Pingback	09-19-2007 08:48 PM

09-15-2007, 12:23 PM	#2 (permalink)
Zen653 Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 5,635	The Red Sox have an illustrious history of collapsing down the stretch. As someone who has watched this team all year, I can tell you that Boston has been exceedingly mediocre after May. The Red Sox shouldn't scare anyone, and certainly not the Yankees who have defeated Boston in 9 consecutive September games, and 8 of the last 10 regular season games. Fortunately, falling out of first place doesn't really matter. With a 4 1/2 game lead over New York, and New York's 3 1/2 game lead over Detroit for the wild card, Boston effectively has a 6-7 game cushion to make the playoffs. And with just 14 games to play, most of them against sub-.500 teams, Boston could still limp into the playoffs with a record of 5-9 during this final stretch (assuming Detroit doesn't go 11-3 or 12-2.) A 7-7 record would all but clinch a spot no matter what Detroit does. Once in the playoffs, anything can happen. The Red Sox have fared well against the Indians this year and seem to hang in there with the Angels. No one in the National League scares me. Boston would just have to hope that the Yankees get taken down in the first round.

09-15-2007, 02:00 PM	#3 (permalink)
LouGehrig Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Melbourne Posts: 217	Which illustrates perfectly why the wild card makes these games so less meaningful. If the Angels or Indians were not so close and one of the division winners were a poor team in a poor division, winning the AL East to get to play a weaker team would become more important.

09-18-2007, 11:38 PM	#5 (permalink)
Zen653 Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 5,635	The Red Sox are now 2.5 games up in the division, with 10 to play. For all practical purposes, it's a 1.5 game lead because the Yankees won the season series and therefore own the tie-breaker. Boston is 1-4 over its last 5 games. The Red Sox are showing a lot of arrogance right now. They're benching Manny Ramirez even though he's been taking batting practice for a full week. They're juggling their pitching rotation for a playoff spot they haven't clinched. They're resting perfectly healthy players like Papelbon, Buchholz and Kielty, while overplaying struggling stiffs like J.D Drew. They're removing starting pitchers early, even when they have low pitch counts and are mowing down the opposing hitters. They're grossly mismanaging the bullpen in order to boost Gagne's confidence, even at the expense of victories. Take tonight, for example. The Red Sox were leading 2-1 heading into the 8th inning. The struggling Eric Gagne came in and got two quick outs. Then he slowly lost control. He couldn't throw his fastball for strikes. He couldn't fool the Toronto batters. He just couldn't get that final out. Meanwhile, the Yankees were beating up on the Orioles 12-0, and Papelbon, warming up on 3 full days of rest, remained in the bullpen. Gagne proceeded to walk 3 batters and give up 3 runs, escaping the inning only because of an outfield assist that cut down the third runner at the plate. What was Francona's post-game explanation for why he stayed with Gagne over a well-rested Papelbon? "We need Gagne to be dominant." Really? Even at the expense of a winnable game when your chief rival is nipping at your neck? Boston doesn't deserve to win the division. The team obviously doesn't care about exorcising old demons and delivering a division title to its fans for the first time in 12 years. Otherwise the club would take these September games a lot more seriously, and actually make an effort to win them. It's 1978 all over again, only this time, the team is utterly apathetic when it comes to surrendering a 14.5 game lead. The complacency disgusts me. Francona might as well forfeit the final 10 games. Give the guys some rest from travel.

09-20-2007, 01:38 AM	#8 (permalink)
Zen653 Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 5,635	And the lead is now down to 1.5 (really 0.5 because of the tie-breaker.) Absolutely sickening. On the post game show tonight, one of the broadcasters asked the manager whether the Red Sox are still trying to win the division. Francona prevaricated and offered a telling non-answer. He replied, "We're trying to win a World Series Championship." I'm starting to think Boston wants to lose the division. Maybe the Red Sox would rather play Games 3 and 4 of the ALDS in Boston. Perhaps they'd rather have the pundits and fans declare them dead so that the pressure is off. That way, anything good that happens in October would be classified as exceeding expectations. I'm ticked off because I really wanted the division title. According to NESN, no team has ever surrendered more than a 14 game lead in the standings. The 1978 Red Sox squandered a 14 game lead and this year's Red Sox team appears poised to "better" that record by coughing up a 14.5 game lead.

09-20-2007, 12:08 PM	#9 (permalink)
LouGehrig Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Melbourne Posts: 217	It's the format and the money. The casual fans love it because it gives them something to be interested in and to watch, usually without much emotion or concern about who wins. I wrote an article that asks and shows what would have happened if today's set up existed in 1978. There would have been some amazing differences. If the Red Sox Were Eliminated: If Today's Format Were Used in 1978, It Would Have Been So Different